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FXUS63 KTOP 040444 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1044 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Update to aviation forecast discussion

DISCUSSION
Issued at 220 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Key Messages

- Progressive upper level wave develops light rain showers, perhaps mixed in with light snow through early evening across far northern Kansas.

- Clouds clear out tomorrow, commencing drier conditions and warmer temps peaking in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday.

- Low confidence in next weekend's system that may bring rain chances and cooler temperatures once again to the region.

Shortwave trough axis is noted on water vapor imagery this afternoon sliding across Nebraska into northern Kansas. The sfc low is currently situated along the KS/NE border while the frontal boundary bisects Kansas. Ahead of the boundary in northeast Kansas, mid to high level clouds blanket the area as southerly winds pickup to near 10 mph. High temps have been able to climb into the upper 40s for most areas, with the exception of north central Kansas in the low 40s. A wide swath of radar returns shifting over MHK and MYZ at the current hour have not been observed reaching the sfc as cloud bases remain near 10kft. Higher returns and lower cloud cover near the KS/NE border are however reaching the sfc in the form of rain showers with moderate confidence in light rain showers occurring over northern Kansas through early evening as the sfc low crosses through the CWA. As temperatures cool close to the freezing mark, a few showers could mix or transition to light snow. Sounding profiles are saturated for a brief time before drier air dissipates any precip so overall qpf amounts would be a few hundredths at best. As the sfc low passes by, winds on the back side veer to the west and northwest becoming gusty this evening at 15 to 20 mph sustained.

Skies become sunny Monday morning as temperatures begin their warmup, starting with the low and middle 50s Monday afternoon.
Increasing mid clouds skirt northern portions of the CWA in the evening as another upper trough bypasses the area to the north. Mid level height rises commence Tuesday onward, returning dry conditions and mostly sunny skies each afternoon. Highs peak on Thursday in the middle 60s before the next cold front approaches to the northwest on Friday. Latest cluster analysis of ensemble data suggest large disparities in an upper trough axis that drops southeast over the central plains next weekend. 12Z operational GFS/EC signal higher qpf totals focusing along the cold front to our southeast so overall confidence remains low in precipitation chances for the CWA.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1042 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

MVFR stratus will continue through 8Z behind the surface cold front. Eventually, through the early morning hours, isentropic downglide should scatter out the stratus. KTOP and KFOE could see some light drizzle through 7Z as well. after 9Z expect VFR conditions.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.

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