Tuesday, February18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lawrence, KS

Version 3.4 		NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 6:02PM Tuesday February 18, 2020 12:27 AM CST (06:27 UTC) Moonrise 3:48AMMoonset 1:28PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence, KS
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location: 38.93, -95.34     debug

Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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FXUS63 KTOP 180451 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1051 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020

. AVIATION UPDATE .

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 307 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020

Recent water vapor imagery showing fairly quick zonal flow over the bulk of the CONUS with one minor wave working east across the upper Mississippi Valley and another entering the central Rockies. A cold front with the former wave was working its way southeast across central portions of Kansas at 20Z with modest southerly winds bringing dewpoints into the middle 40s and temps into the lower to middle 60s ahead of it. Scattered showers with even some lightning activity had developed in southwestern portions of Iowa. Visible satellite imagery indicates very little cumulus formation in northeast Kansas but went ahead with small precip chances in a few far northeast counties near the front this afternoon.

The cold front reaches the Red River area late tonight as the next upper wave approaches. Mid-level moisture will continue to stream overhead in advance of this wave and there are varying indications of modest isentropic upglide in the 305 to 295K layer across the southeastern quadrant of Kansas late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Confidence in enough ascent to bring precipition to the ground through the drying lower troposphere is not high, but have enough concern for a trace precip mention in southern areas. Temperatures falling into the middle 20s to lower 30s keep the bulk of this as a flurry mention. Skies should steadily clear through the day Tuesday as the upper wave exits but north winds in the Canadian airmass keep highs in the lower to middle 40s.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 307 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020

The Tuesday night into early Wednesday periods appear quiet with more high cloud streaming overhead downstream of the next upper wave digging southeast into the central Rockies. Reinforcing surface high pressure builds into the mid-Mississippi Valley as this occurs with dry/cold northeast winds developing as a more impressive upglide/frontogenesis scenario takes shape late Wednesday into early Thursday. 12Z runs continue to suggest the eastern end of precipitation will be over to near the CWA but have little doubt this will be a difficult to nail down low QPF/high coverage-type event. The cold air remains in place into Thursday with highs for Wednesday and Thursday only in the 30s. South winds return Friday into Saturday to bring temps back to near normal though a southern branch wave could impact the area via WAA precip as early as Saturday afternoon. Greater chances look to come around Sunday as the wave passe through, though this timing could easily be off as seen in some ensemble runs. At this point wintry precip accumulation potential looks low with the northern branch energy to the northwest keeping cold air intrusion in check.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday) Issued at 1051 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020

Satellite showed an area of MVFR CIGS moving south towards the terminals before high clouds moved over. These clouds were eroding from the north as they moved south. So the expectation is for any MVFR CIGS to be short lived. With continued low level dry air advection, VFR Conditions are expected to prevail through the day Tuesday.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SHORT TERM . 65 LONG TERM . 65 AVIATION . Wolters

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, KS9 mi36 minNNW 16 G 2610.00 miMostly Cloudy35°F27°F72%1020.1 hPa
Topeka, Forbes Field, KS18 mi35 minNNW 20 G 2910.00 miOvercast and Breezy35°F26°F70%1020.1 hPa
Topeka, Philip Billard Municipal Airport, KS18 mi35 minNNW 1010.00 miOvercast35°F26°F70%1020.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLWC

Wind History from LWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmW3CalmS4S4SE866W10NW11W12
G21		NW16
G22		NW20
G26		N18
G28		--N17
G24		N16
G26
1 day agoCalmN3CalmSE3E3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmSE4SE5SE6SE7SE7S6SE4E4E4E3E3E5E3E3
2 days agoE7S13
G20		S10S7
G18		S5S8S7S5SE4CalmSW5S8SW6CalmNW3CalmE3E3S3E3E3CalmCalmN3
Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Topeka, KS (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.