Lawrence, KS Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lawrence, KS

June 18, 2024 3:43 AM CDT (08:43 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 8:50 PM
Moonrise 4:53 PM   Moonset 2:10 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence, KS
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Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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FXUS63 KTOP 180755 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 255 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this PM, continue into early Thursday along a stalled cold front.

- Potential for a few strong to severe storms this evening with several inches of rain total through Wednesday, particularly across north-central KS.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A look at water vapor imagery this morning shows an amplified pattern over the CONUS. Deep troughing is in place over the western states while very strong ridging is building over the East Coast. One notable shortwave trough is lifting northeast across the Northern Plains into southern Canada. At the surface, a 990 mb low is centered over South Dakota, with a trailing cold front extending southwest into eastern Colorado.
This front will move into north-central Kansas by this evening.
Ahead of this, a tight pressure gradient continues to keep rather breezy conditions for mid-June in place. Similar to yesterday, expecting southerly wind gusts 30-45 mph during the daytime hours - just slightly below Wind Advisory criteria.

Thunderstorm chances increase late afternoon and early evening along the cold front as temperatures climb into the low 90s and ML CIN erodes. Large DCAPE and boundary-parallel shear vectors will lead to upscale growth rather quickly. Large hail will be possible with initial cellular convection given steep mid-level lapse rates and 25 kts of effective shear, but gusty winds quickly become the main threat as upscale growth occurs. Also can't rule out a brief landspout underneath the initial updrafts, given steep near-surface lapse rates and high vorticity along the slow moving boundary. But the biggest threat will likely be the heavy rainfall potential. This risk is highest late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning as the front inches southeast, though some rain and storms will continue into Thursday morning. PWAT increases to around 1.8" (around the 95th percentile of climatology) by 06z Wednesday and slow storm movement will increase the potential for storms to sit over the same area. As is typical with convection, tough to say ahead of time exactly where the heaviest rain will fall. However the greatest risk for 1-3" of rain (and locally higher amounts capable of causing flooding) will be across north-central Kansas, generally north and west of Manhattan. Rainfall should be much spottier to the southeast across east-central Kansas, with current forecast amounts below 0.25" south of I-35. The rain and clouds will at least keep for a cooler Wednesday, particularly behind the front across north-central Kansas where highs may stay in the 70s.

Rain tapers off Thursday morning as the 597 dam H5 ridge over the East Coast expands westward. This will result in another warming trend through Saturday. Expecting Saturday to be the warmest day, with highs in the mid 90s and heat indices approaching or surpassing the century mark. A shortwave trough moving across the Northern Plains then brings our next precipitation chances for Saturday evening/night, as it flattens the ridge and sends another cold front southeast through the area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

South winds will continue through the period, strongest during the daytime hours at 15-20 kts with gusts to around 30 kts. Ceilings will stay primarily VFR, though there is still a few hour window where some SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings will be possible during the morning, most likely towards KMHK. By late evening, storms will develop along a front in north-central KS, though this should stay northwest of KMHK through midnight.

CLIMATE
Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Record Warm Low Temperatures

June 18

Record Forecast Concordia 80 (1953) 72 Topeka 81 (2021) 76

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




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