Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lawrence, KS
April 23, 2024 5:05 AM CDT (10:05 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:30 AM Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 7:10 PM Moonset 5:16 AM |
Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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FXUS63 KTOP 230921 AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 421 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Surface boundary slides through the area today with some areas seeing scattered showers/storms (30-40%), mainly across eastern and northeastern Kansas.
- Unsettle pattern sets up Thursday into the weekend with several rounds of thunderstorms, including the potential for severe weather Thursday through Friday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 421 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
A quick synopsis of the region shows a shortwave oscillating over Minnesota, quasi-zonal flow over the central Plains, with a surface low positioned over southwestern Kansas and a trough axis extending northeast into central Iowa. Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed along the trough axis over the Missouri river valley in KS/NE/MO where RAP analysis has the best upper-level support and instability co-located. This surface trough and surface boundary will slowly move across Kansas today, shifting the winds to the northwest and ushering in a slightly drier air mass. Temperatures should not be impacted too much with this frontal passage with highs still expected to reach the low to mid 70s this afternoon. Most precipitation will stay in far northeastern Kansas and possibly far east-central Kansas into the late morning hours. This boundary will continue to push south into central Oklahoma by Wednesday, stalling out as a few weak mid-level perturbations eject into the central Plains. With better moisture staying south and along this boundary not expecting much precipitation with these weak wave passes, but some scattered light showers could develop Wednesday afternoon.
By Thursday, the surface boundary will lift north as a warm front as a stout shortwave begins to approach the Plains from the southwest.
Dreary/drizzly conditions will follow the warm front as it moves north Thursday with elevated showers expected through much of the day Thursday. With instability increasing and the ejecting shortwave increasing mid and upper level support, some elevated storms could develop during the afternoon and evening hours Thursday with large hail being the main concern.
As we get into Friday morning, a secondary push of the shortwave will enter the region, taking on more of a negative tilt. A deepening lee cyclone will push into central Nebraska during the day Friday with all of eastern Kansas residing in the warm sector of the cyclone. A dryline will likely develop in central Kansas by the afternoon hours that could become the focal point for strong to severe weather across eastern Kansas. Instability and shear will remain in place for severe weather to occur, but uncertainty still remains between guidance in how fast the main upper wave will push across the region. Latest runs do depict a slight eastern shift in where ingredients for severe weather may co-locate with eastern portions of the area possibly trending higher for a severe threat.
All that said, Friday afternoon appears to be the most likely timerange for severe weather to occur given the setup, so make sure to stay tuned for further details in the coming few days leading up to the system. Another trough is expected to eject into the central Plains again this weekend with additional chances for rain and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
VFR TAFs can be expected through the period at all sites. Winds will remain out of the south through the early morning hours before shifting towards the northwest following a surface boundary passage. Cannot rule out some marginal wind shear over the next few hours, but will only be an issue if winds fall below 10 knots. This has not been the case and is the reason for no mention of wind shear in TAFs. Winds will begin to decrease below 10 knots Tuesday evening, remaining out of the north.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 421 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Surface boundary slides through the area today with some areas seeing scattered showers/storms (30-40%), mainly across eastern and northeastern Kansas.
- Unsettle pattern sets up Thursday into the weekend with several rounds of thunderstorms, including the potential for severe weather Thursday through Friday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 421 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
A quick synopsis of the region shows a shortwave oscillating over Minnesota, quasi-zonal flow over the central Plains, with a surface low positioned over southwestern Kansas and a trough axis extending northeast into central Iowa. Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed along the trough axis over the Missouri river valley in KS/NE/MO where RAP analysis has the best upper-level support and instability co-located. This surface trough and surface boundary will slowly move across Kansas today, shifting the winds to the northwest and ushering in a slightly drier air mass. Temperatures should not be impacted too much with this frontal passage with highs still expected to reach the low to mid 70s this afternoon. Most precipitation will stay in far northeastern Kansas and possibly far east-central Kansas into the late morning hours. This boundary will continue to push south into central Oklahoma by Wednesday, stalling out as a few weak mid-level perturbations eject into the central Plains. With better moisture staying south and along this boundary not expecting much precipitation with these weak wave passes, but some scattered light showers could develop Wednesday afternoon.
By Thursday, the surface boundary will lift north as a warm front as a stout shortwave begins to approach the Plains from the southwest.
Dreary/drizzly conditions will follow the warm front as it moves north Thursday with elevated showers expected through much of the day Thursday. With instability increasing and the ejecting shortwave increasing mid and upper level support, some elevated storms could develop during the afternoon and evening hours Thursday with large hail being the main concern.
As we get into Friday morning, a secondary push of the shortwave will enter the region, taking on more of a negative tilt. A deepening lee cyclone will push into central Nebraska during the day Friday with all of eastern Kansas residing in the warm sector of the cyclone. A dryline will likely develop in central Kansas by the afternoon hours that could become the focal point for strong to severe weather across eastern Kansas. Instability and shear will remain in place for severe weather to occur, but uncertainty still remains between guidance in how fast the main upper wave will push across the region. Latest runs do depict a slight eastern shift in where ingredients for severe weather may co-locate with eastern portions of the area possibly trending higher for a severe threat.
All that said, Friday afternoon appears to be the most likely timerange for severe weather to occur given the setup, so make sure to stay tuned for further details in the coming few days leading up to the system. Another trough is expected to eject into the central Plains again this weekend with additional chances for rain and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
VFR TAFs can be expected through the period at all sites. Winds will remain out of the south through the early morning hours before shifting towards the northwest following a surface boundary passage. Cannot rule out some marginal wind shear over the next few hours, but will only be an issue if winds fall below 10 knots. This has not been the case and is the reason for no mention of wind shear in TAFs. Winds will begin to decrease below 10 knots Tuesday evening, remaining out of the north.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLWC LAWRENCE MUNI,KS | 8 sm | 13 min | SW 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 57°F | 43°F | 59% | 29.84 | |
| KFOE TOPEKA RGNL,KS | 17 sm | 12 min | SSW 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 55°F | 43°F | 62% | 29.82 | |
| KTOP PHILIP BILLARD MUNI,KS | 18 sm | 12 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 59°F | 43°F | 55% | 29.82 |
Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO,
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