DISCUSSION
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024

At midday, modest northwest flow aloft remains with Canadian surface high pressure centered over Iowa and a surface ridge stretching southwest into southeast New Mexico. Mid-level cloud over central portions Kansas has slowly dissipated through the day where modest isentropic lift around 308K was present.

The low-level anticyclone nudges east through Tuesday as the upper flow becomes somewhat more zonal. This brings south winds back to the area with modest low-level warming leading to slowly modifying temperatures. Lows tonight could again be impacted by the mid cloud. Much of this should continue to dissipate through the evening, though there could be more development later tonight however the ascent is even weaker than today. With lighter winds, expect eastern areas to again be cooler than western even if skies stay clear there. Lows return back to 60s by Wednesday night as the surface ridge breaks down and with highs back near 90.

Precipitation chances rise somewhat in the late week. An upper wave pushing northeast into the northern Plains may drags a weak front into the region around Friday night. Instability appears to be weak though a boundary could be enough for some activity. Will also need to keep an eye on a potential tropical system moving out of the western Gulf in the mid to late week though it's most likely for this to remain to the southeast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024

VFR conditions will continue. Clouds around FL065 in the MHK vicinity should diminish with time as modest and shallow warm- air advection weakens. Chances for nocturnal ground fog formation beyond something extremely shallow and patchy are quite low.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.