Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lawrence, KS
May 21, 2024 11:44 AM CDT (16:44 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:01 AM Sunset 8:33 PM Moonrise 6:02 PM Moonset 3:43 AM |
FXUS63 KTOP 211644 AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1144 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- There will be a chance for isolated to scattered severe storms along a cold front moving through the area for a few hours this afternoon from far northeastern to far east central Kansas areas.
Large hail appears to be the primary hazard with damaging winds possible before storms move east of the area. The threat for tornadoes is low.
- Marginally severe storms may be possible again Thursday across the area as another weather system enters the region. However, details at this time remain uncertain.
- Off and on rain and storm chances look possible through the Memorial Day weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Early this morning, storms continue across the state of Nebraska and into Iowa with convection training along the nose of the LLJ which has started to relax slightly. A couple of line segments also continue to track into south central Nebraska and portions of northwestern into north-central Kansas areas. These bear watching as they may brush along the KS/NE border. Overall, these storms are likely more elevated than just an hour or so ago as prior outflows have continued to push through the pre-storm environment which these line segments area advancing into. As convergence weakens, the expectation is these storms will continue to also weaken without the LLJ feeding into them. So, right now, would anticipate severe trends to continue to subside if they do make it to the local area.
Later this afternoon a compact shortwave now evident over central CO vicinity will continue to lift into Nebraska and induce a new lee cyclone off the foothills of the Rockies into the High Plains region. This will deepen quickly and by this afternoon a modified cold front quickly moves from west to east across the area. Initial capping appears to be strong enough to keep convection delayed until mid afternoon and allowing the front to move across much of the area without too much impact until it reaches far northeastern and far eastern Kansas areas. Best forcing with the wave at this time will be displaced to the northeast of the area. Southern extent of storm development is somewhat uncertain coverage wise, but expect a short window this afternoon for storms to quickly develop over eastern areas. Large hail would be possible with steep lapse rates in place and sufficient shear. Storm motions should allow for quick moving storms to exit the area by around 5 pm or so. Then further development of storms should be focused east of the area for this evening.
Wednesday looks nearly perfect with lower dewpoints as cooler modified Canadian air expands into the region. Into Thursday, storms may be possible again but details look uncertain at this time. Semipermanent broad troughing across the western into the central CONUS allows for a modified Pacific system to dig into the northern Plains. Again, best forcing for ascent appears displaced north of the area. Question regarding quality return setup and thus quality theta-e airmass back into the region remains to be seen.
Right now, marginally severe storms may be possible as another weak cold front is pushed through the region.
Into the Memorial Day weekend, off and on showers and storms may be possible as the overall setup remains with a couple of perturbations poised to enter the area providing a mechanism for lift. Quality of moisture return for these systems will again be a question.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
CAMs have been consistent in developing TS east of TOP and FOE this afternoon. So will keep a dry forecast. The stratocu deck will eventually lift above 3 KFT as the boundary layer continues to warm. There might be some high based showers overnight, but confidence in coverage is to limited to include in the forecast.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1144 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- There will be a chance for isolated to scattered severe storms along a cold front moving through the area for a few hours this afternoon from far northeastern to far east central Kansas areas.
Large hail appears to be the primary hazard with damaging winds possible before storms move east of the area. The threat for tornadoes is low.
- Marginally severe storms may be possible again Thursday across the area as another weather system enters the region. However, details at this time remain uncertain.
- Off and on rain and storm chances look possible through the Memorial Day weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Early this morning, storms continue across the state of Nebraska and into Iowa with convection training along the nose of the LLJ which has started to relax slightly. A couple of line segments also continue to track into south central Nebraska and portions of northwestern into north-central Kansas areas. These bear watching as they may brush along the KS/NE border. Overall, these storms are likely more elevated than just an hour or so ago as prior outflows have continued to push through the pre-storm environment which these line segments area advancing into. As convergence weakens, the expectation is these storms will continue to also weaken without the LLJ feeding into them. So, right now, would anticipate severe trends to continue to subside if they do make it to the local area.
Later this afternoon a compact shortwave now evident over central CO vicinity will continue to lift into Nebraska and induce a new lee cyclone off the foothills of the Rockies into the High Plains region. This will deepen quickly and by this afternoon a modified cold front quickly moves from west to east across the area. Initial capping appears to be strong enough to keep convection delayed until mid afternoon and allowing the front to move across much of the area without too much impact until it reaches far northeastern and far eastern Kansas areas. Best forcing with the wave at this time will be displaced to the northeast of the area. Southern extent of storm development is somewhat uncertain coverage wise, but expect a short window this afternoon for storms to quickly develop over eastern areas. Large hail would be possible with steep lapse rates in place and sufficient shear. Storm motions should allow for quick moving storms to exit the area by around 5 pm or so. Then further development of storms should be focused east of the area for this evening.
Wednesday looks nearly perfect with lower dewpoints as cooler modified Canadian air expands into the region. Into Thursday, storms may be possible again but details look uncertain at this time. Semipermanent broad troughing across the western into the central CONUS allows for a modified Pacific system to dig into the northern Plains. Again, best forcing for ascent appears displaced north of the area. Question regarding quality return setup and thus quality theta-e airmass back into the region remains to be seen.
Right now, marginally severe storms may be possible as another weak cold front is pushed through the region.
Into the Memorial Day weekend, off and on showers and storms may be possible as the overall setup remains with a couple of perturbations poised to enter the area providing a mechanism for lift. Quality of moisture return for these systems will again be a question.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
CAMs have been consistent in developing TS east of TOP and FOE this afternoon. So will keep a dry forecast. The stratocu deck will eventually lift above 3 KFT as the boundary layer continues to warm. There might be some high based showers overnight, but confidence in coverage is to limited to include in the forecast.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLWC LAWRENCE MUNI,KS | 8 sm | 14 min | S 19G29 | 7 sm | Overcast | 82°F | 70°F | 66% | 29.53 | |
| KFOE TOPEKA RGNL,KS | 17 sm | 39 min | no data | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 79°F | 70°F | 74% | 29.51 | |
| KTOP PHILIP BILLARD MUNI,KS | 18 sm | 51 min | S 10G19 | 10 sm | Overcast | 79°F | 70°F | 74% | 29.52 |
Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO,
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