Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elsah, IL
April 19, 2025 4:20 AM CDT (09:20 UTC) Change Location
![]() | Sunrise 6:16 AM Sunset 7:43 PM Moonrise 12:33 AM Moonset 9:27 AM |
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elsah, IL

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Area Discussion for St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 190833 AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 333 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue today with additional chances Sunday. Some rain may be heavy at times, resulting in ponding of flood prone areas and localized flash flooding. Locally up to 5" is possible within the Flood Watch.
- Thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night could be strong to severe. There remains some uncertainty where thunderstorms will be most intense. All hazards will be possible.
- Dry conditions start off next week with near normal temperatures (mid-60s/mid-70s) rising back above normal Tuesday. The pattern becomes active once again around midweek.
SHORT TERM
(Through Late Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025
The Midwest is sandwiched between ridging over the southeastern U.S.
and an amplified, positively tilted trough that extends from the north-central Plains into the Desert Southwest. This setup sets the stage for multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms that will impact much of the weekend.
The leading edge of the showers and thunderstorms has moved into the mid-Mississippi Valley this morning. Region IR satellite shows a mass of colder cloud tops from numerous thunderstorms that extend southwestward from southern Illinois into central Texas. As of 06z, surface analysis depicts a cold front lined northeast to southwest, pushing through the middle section of the forecast area. Along and immediately ahead of the front, thunderstorms are tapping into MUCAPE values around 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear of 60-70 kts per SPC mesoanalysis. As the front continue southward early this morning, a couple of thunderstorms may become strong to severe with damaging wind and potentially a tornado. Hail is a lower threat at this point considering marginal mid-level lapse rates (5.5-6C) beginning to trail off. Thunderstorm intensity is expected to wane through the next couple of hours as the front moves south and instability subsides with time.
Radar mosaics show additional showers and a few embedded thunderstorms extending from central Missouri into west-central Illinois. This activity is post-frontal and elevated in nature.
Additionally, showers and thunderstorms lack the same support that resides further south ahead of the front. While this activity does not pose a severe threat, attention shifts to flooding potential as rainfall amounts continue to add up through the event.
A train of 500 mb vort lobes are ejected out ahead of the amplified trough and around the northwestern edge of the ridge through at least early this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to drive over the region with pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall possible. Saturation extends from the surface through 500 mb with PWATs generally ranging from 1.3-1.5 inches early this morning.
However, the persistence of the low level jet, duration of parallel flow in relation to the surface front and varying warm cloud depth could pose some challenge to overall rainfall performance. While these indicators initially support training, heavy rainfall, they either do not persist in perfect harmony throughout the period.
There are indications there will be weakening of the low level jet.
Additionally, as the front continues southward, PWATs that are nearly 150% of mean values (0.50") drop off slightly through the course of the day. This suggests at least some downward trend late tonight, providing some relief from more persistent, heavier rainfall we are experiencing this morning through early afternoon.
As surfaces become saturated, the threat for flooding will increase with the highest confidence in river flooding. Flash flooding, while possible, likely remains localized with widespread rainfall totals of 2-4" and localized amount around 5" (75th percentile) with the highest amounts along the I-44 corridor.
.
The upper trough begin to progress eastward out of the southwestern CONUS tonight into Sunday. Surface low pressure develops over the southern planes and quickly deeps as it takes a turn to the northeast. As the surface low tracks northeast from central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas tonight, it begin to lift the stalled surface boundary back to the north as a warm front with showers and embedded thunderstorms. Fortunately, better instability remains further south, keeping thunderstorms sub-severe. The main question will be the timing with some minor differences in position and northward speed of the front. Should the quicker solution come to fruition, we may get into a lull ahead of the cold front from mid morning through early afternoon, but confidence low that we have any completely rain- free period.
A cold front that extends south of the system moves into western Missouri Sunday afternoon. GFS seems to be the quicker outlier here with the ECM and short range guidance further west with convective initiation. Much of the guidance is favoring a low CAPE, high shear environment with LREF MUCAPE means ranging 500-800 J/kg and 0-6 km shear of around 60 knots. Latest NAM guidance is somewhat concerning with a narrow corridor of SBCAPE climbing to around 1500 J/kg immediately along and ahead of the cold front. There is quite a bit of uncertainty with instability with the abundance of cloud cover that will have to clear out to allow instability to build. Even with lower CAPE values, 0-3 km shear of 30-35 knots, SRH approaching 250 m2/s2, and curved hodographs would suggest the potential for embedded vorticity along a narrow like of strong to severe thunderstorms. Mid-level lapse rates initially approach 7C where thunderstorms initiate, supporting better potential for hail, leaving all hazards on the table. As thunderstorms become linear through late evening, damaging winds and tornadoes likely become the main threat over eastern Missouri into Illinois.
Maples
LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025
Pending the speed of Sunday's cold front, showers and thunderstorms could linger into late Sunday east of the Mississippi River. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong to severe, but will likely be in their weakening phase as they push east of the region Monday morning. Temperatures cool back to near normal (mid-60s/mid-70s)
Monday as high pressure builds in from west to east.
Quasi-zonal upper level flow starts off the week with ridging encompassing the southeastern U.S. The ridge migrates slightly eastward Tuesday with return flow resulting in warm air advection and temperatures that rise back above normal as 850 mb temperatures of 10-15C are drawn northward out of the southern Plains.
The upper level pattern remains relatively flat and void of any real amplified systems through the remainder of the week with a couple of quick-moving shortwaves traversing the central U.S. Active weather could return sometime around midweek, but the exact track and the shortwaves and corresponding surface systems is not certain and will affect timing and rainfall potential from midweek onward.
Maples
AVIATION
(For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025
The front edge of showers and thunderstorms have move near or over terminals near the top of the 06z hour. Thunderstorms near and south of the metro terminals early this morning are running near or just ahead of the surface cold front, while activity over central/northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois is positioned behind the front. Thunderstorms along the front have better potential for intensity that could produce hail and gusty winds, but overall, thunderstorm strength is expected to decrease over the next couple of hours.
Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will remain the theme through much of the day today. A brief downtick in spread and rainfall rates is expect later this afternoon into early this evening. However, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected develop to the southwest and once again track over central Missouri and metro terminals, while KUIN remains on the norther fringes of the shield of precipitation.
Main impacts will be from lower visibilities in/around thunderstorms. Cloud bases vary between MVFR/VFR outside of pockets of persistent precipitation with a gradual downward trend to MVFR/IFR. IFR is more probable late this evening into early Sunday, just beyond the period for 24 hour TAF sites, when a the stationary surface boundary lifts back to the north as a warm front.
Maples
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...Flood Watch through late Sunday night for Audrain MO-Boone MO- Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO- Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO- Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Flood Watch through late Sunday night for Bond IL-Calhoun IL- Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL- Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL- Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 333 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue today with additional chances Sunday. Some rain may be heavy at times, resulting in ponding of flood prone areas and localized flash flooding. Locally up to 5" is possible within the Flood Watch.
- Thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night could be strong to severe. There remains some uncertainty where thunderstorms will be most intense. All hazards will be possible.
- Dry conditions start off next week with near normal temperatures (mid-60s/mid-70s) rising back above normal Tuesday. The pattern becomes active once again around midweek.
SHORT TERM
(Through Late Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025
The Midwest is sandwiched between ridging over the southeastern U.S.
and an amplified, positively tilted trough that extends from the north-central Plains into the Desert Southwest. This setup sets the stage for multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms that will impact much of the weekend.
The leading edge of the showers and thunderstorms has moved into the mid-Mississippi Valley this morning. Region IR satellite shows a mass of colder cloud tops from numerous thunderstorms that extend southwestward from southern Illinois into central Texas. As of 06z, surface analysis depicts a cold front lined northeast to southwest, pushing through the middle section of the forecast area. Along and immediately ahead of the front, thunderstorms are tapping into MUCAPE values around 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear of 60-70 kts per SPC mesoanalysis. As the front continue southward early this morning, a couple of thunderstorms may become strong to severe with damaging wind and potentially a tornado. Hail is a lower threat at this point considering marginal mid-level lapse rates (5.5-6C) beginning to trail off. Thunderstorm intensity is expected to wane through the next couple of hours as the front moves south and instability subsides with time.
Radar mosaics show additional showers and a few embedded thunderstorms extending from central Missouri into west-central Illinois. This activity is post-frontal and elevated in nature.
Additionally, showers and thunderstorms lack the same support that resides further south ahead of the front. While this activity does not pose a severe threat, attention shifts to flooding potential as rainfall amounts continue to add up through the event.
A train of 500 mb vort lobes are ejected out ahead of the amplified trough and around the northwestern edge of the ridge through at least early this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to drive over the region with pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall possible. Saturation extends from the surface through 500 mb with PWATs generally ranging from 1.3-1.5 inches early this morning.
However, the persistence of the low level jet, duration of parallel flow in relation to the surface front and varying warm cloud depth could pose some challenge to overall rainfall performance. While these indicators initially support training, heavy rainfall, they either do not persist in perfect harmony throughout the period.
There are indications there will be weakening of the low level jet.
Additionally, as the front continues southward, PWATs that are nearly 150% of mean values (0.50") drop off slightly through the course of the day. This suggests at least some downward trend late tonight, providing some relief from more persistent, heavier rainfall we are experiencing this morning through early afternoon.
As surfaces become saturated, the threat for flooding will increase with the highest confidence in river flooding. Flash flooding, while possible, likely remains localized with widespread rainfall totals of 2-4" and localized amount around 5" (75th percentile) with the highest amounts along the I-44 corridor.
.
The upper trough begin to progress eastward out of the southwestern CONUS tonight into Sunday. Surface low pressure develops over the southern planes and quickly deeps as it takes a turn to the northeast. As the surface low tracks northeast from central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas tonight, it begin to lift the stalled surface boundary back to the north as a warm front with showers and embedded thunderstorms. Fortunately, better instability remains further south, keeping thunderstorms sub-severe. The main question will be the timing with some minor differences in position and northward speed of the front. Should the quicker solution come to fruition, we may get into a lull ahead of the cold front from mid morning through early afternoon, but confidence low that we have any completely rain- free period.
A cold front that extends south of the system moves into western Missouri Sunday afternoon. GFS seems to be the quicker outlier here with the ECM and short range guidance further west with convective initiation. Much of the guidance is favoring a low CAPE, high shear environment with LREF MUCAPE means ranging 500-800 J/kg and 0-6 km shear of around 60 knots. Latest NAM guidance is somewhat concerning with a narrow corridor of SBCAPE climbing to around 1500 J/kg immediately along and ahead of the cold front. There is quite a bit of uncertainty with instability with the abundance of cloud cover that will have to clear out to allow instability to build. Even with lower CAPE values, 0-3 km shear of 30-35 knots, SRH approaching 250 m2/s2, and curved hodographs would suggest the potential for embedded vorticity along a narrow like of strong to severe thunderstorms. Mid-level lapse rates initially approach 7C where thunderstorms initiate, supporting better potential for hail, leaving all hazards on the table. As thunderstorms become linear through late evening, damaging winds and tornadoes likely become the main threat over eastern Missouri into Illinois.
Maples
LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025
Pending the speed of Sunday's cold front, showers and thunderstorms could linger into late Sunday east of the Mississippi River. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong to severe, but will likely be in their weakening phase as they push east of the region Monday morning. Temperatures cool back to near normal (mid-60s/mid-70s)
Monday as high pressure builds in from west to east.
Quasi-zonal upper level flow starts off the week with ridging encompassing the southeastern U.S. The ridge migrates slightly eastward Tuesday with return flow resulting in warm air advection and temperatures that rise back above normal as 850 mb temperatures of 10-15C are drawn northward out of the southern Plains.
The upper level pattern remains relatively flat and void of any real amplified systems through the remainder of the week with a couple of quick-moving shortwaves traversing the central U.S. Active weather could return sometime around midweek, but the exact track and the shortwaves and corresponding surface systems is not certain and will affect timing and rainfall potential from midweek onward.
Maples
AVIATION
(For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025
The front edge of showers and thunderstorms have move near or over terminals near the top of the 06z hour. Thunderstorms near and south of the metro terminals early this morning are running near or just ahead of the surface cold front, while activity over central/northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois is positioned behind the front. Thunderstorms along the front have better potential for intensity that could produce hail and gusty winds, but overall, thunderstorm strength is expected to decrease over the next couple of hours.
Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will remain the theme through much of the day today. A brief downtick in spread and rainfall rates is expect later this afternoon into early this evening. However, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected develop to the southwest and once again track over central Missouri and metro terminals, while KUIN remains on the norther fringes of the shield of precipitation.
Main impacts will be from lower visibilities in/around thunderstorms. Cloud bases vary between MVFR/VFR outside of pockets of persistent precipitation with a gradual downward trend to MVFR/IFR. IFR is more probable late this evening into early Sunday, just beyond the period for 24 hour TAF sites, when a the stationary surface boundary lifts back to the north as a warm front.
Maples
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...Flood Watch through late Sunday night for Audrain MO-Boone MO- Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO- Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO- Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Flood Watch through late Sunday night for Bond IL-Calhoun IL- Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL- Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL- Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
Airport Reports
Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KSET ST CHARLES COUNTY SMARTT,MO | 3 sm | 9 min | NW 14G19 | 3 sm | Overcast | Thunderstorm in Vicinity Hvy Rain Mist | 55°F | 52°F | 88% | 29.99 |
KSTL ST LOUIS LAMBERT INTL,MO | 13 sm | 21 min | NNW 13 | 1/2 sm | Overcast | Hvy Rain Mist | 57°F | 54°F | 88% | 29.97 |
KALN ST LOUIS RGNL,IL | 17 sm | 25 min | N 05 | 7 sm | Overcast | Hvy Rain | 59°F | 57°F | 94% | 29.96 |
KSUS SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS,MO | 24 sm | 13 min | WNW 12 | 1/2 sm | Overcast | Thunderstorm Hvy Rain Mist | 55°F | 54°F | 94% | 30.02 |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KSET
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSET
Wind History Graph: SET
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of great lakes
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