Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manchester, CA

DISCUSSION
Very light rain showers have persisted across southern Mendocino and Lake Counties through the day as low pressure gradually makes landfall along the southern California coast. Overall rainfall has generally stayed below 0.2 inches with little more expected through the evening tonight. Otherwise, the cold and moist airmass has kept temperatures cool in the low 60s and upper 50s despite clearing skies.

Heading into tonight, still elevated dewpoints will likely aid in continued valley fog formation. Despite generally clear skies, dewpoints solidly above 40 will most likely inhibit frost formation all but the coldest valleys. The most likely locations for some patchy frost tonight will be around Ruth Lake and in Hayfork. THe potential for frost will slightly increase Wednesday night as slight drying is expected. Even slightly more drying than forecast, however, could greatly increase the potential for frost and will need to be watched closely.

Conditions will only gradually ease late in the week as a weak lobe of high pressure build across the area, though persistent northerly wind and short days will limit the magnitude of warming. By Friday, the warmest interior valleys will likely reach into the low 80s with most areas closer to the mid 70s. Moderate marine influence will likely keep coastal conditions not much warmer than the upper 60s even though light offshore flow will promote generally clear skies during the day. Otherwise winds will be weak.

Another round of rain is most likely to impact the area around Sunday into early next week. Deterministic models mostly resolve a shallow trough which would mostly restrict rain just to the immediate North Coast. 90% of ensemble members show at least light wetting rain. The spread of ensembles resolves 2 distinct scenarios.
About 50% show a light rain even with total precipitation of only 0.5 to 1.5 inches along the coast, while 40% show a stronger though still moderate event with rainfall of 2 to 3 inches. The stronger scenario would show some slight potential for southerly wind gusts up to around 40 mph in exposed areas. /JHW



AVIATION
The upper level low to the south of the area is bringing some clouds and few showers to southern Mendocino and Lake counties, however conditions continue to be mainly VFR. Tonight offshore flow is expected to persist in the evening. Overnight southerly flow near the coast is expected to push some stratus north. Models are indicating this may reach KACV and KCEC around sunrise on Wednesday, however confidence is low on this. If stratus does make it up the coast this may remain cloudy for portions of the day. MKK



MARINE
Northerly winds are in place across the waters this afternoon. Wind driven waves are expected to peak around 5 to 7 feet this evening. These will combine with a northwest swell around 10 seconds. This two waves are expected to combine and peak around 7 to 10 feet this evening. In addition there is a 17 second swell, but these is only expected to peak around 4 feet.

Tonight these winds start to weaken and the stronger winds move offshore. This will allow southerly winds advance north along the coast. These will continue on Wednesday. Some of these winds may be briefly around 15 kt. The long period swell continues around 3 feet at 15 seconds. The northwest 10 second northwest swell continues to be around 4 feet at 15 seconds.

Wednesday night into Thursday northerly winds return and these are expected to be stronger. These winds are expected to peak on Friday and diminish through the day into Saturday. There may be some local gale force gusts, especially south of Cape Mendocino. A larger northwest wave is expected to build in on Friday evening. This is expected to peak on Friday around 9 feet at 15 seconds. Saturday night into Sunday morning there may be some brief southerly winds as a cold front swings through. The strength and timing remain uncertain, but most models keep the winds below 20 kt. Northerly winds are expected to quickly return Sunday afternoon or overnight.
MKK



EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ455.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ470- 475.