Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manchester, CA

KEY MESSAGES

-Strong north winds will build each afternoon this weekend.
Strongest winds expected along shore and over higher terrain areas over interior. Peak gusts Today near 30 kts and peak Gusts Saturday and Sunday near 40 kts.

-Generally clear skies and dry conditions, even along shore, through early next week.

-Slightly cooler conditions into the weekend and warming through next week.



DISCUSSION

SHORT TERM
A broad, weak low will swing through the Pacific Northwest. Today and through the weekend, Northwest California is projected to see an influx of moisture and cooler air with the potential for some localized areas of drizzle early each morning, mostly around coastal protected valleys of the King Range and Humboldt Bay.

While the trough moves through to the north, a strong ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the Central Pacific this weekend. A pressure gradient will tighten and align along shore into the weekend as high pressure continues to build, but stall, offshore. This will bring unusually strong northwest winds this weekend along the coast and across most higher terrain areas of the interior. North winds will gust near 30 mph in exposed areas by this afternoon with 40 mph gusts by Saturday afternoon. Winds will be stubbornly consistent and widespread in the afternoon, though gusts will most likely stay below advisory criteria with limited potential for impacts or damage. The wind will pull marine influence far inland and keep low levels well mixed, generally limiting high temperatures to the mid 60s and 70s. Coastal conditions will remain cool despite winds keeping skies mostly clear.

LONG TERM
High pressure will begin to push inland Sunday and into early next week. The strongest North winds will shift towards the Sacramento Valley in response while winds will remain breezy near shore on Sunday, the strongest winds will shift to Lake County with gusts over 40 mph at high elevations and along the rim of the Sacramento Valley. At the same time, north winds on Sunday will pull more air from the interior, promoting very dry conditions, especially far from the coast.

Winds will begin to weaken early next week as high pressure settles further onshore. Conditions will remain very dry with interior highs gradually approaching the 90s by mid week. Any HeatRisk currently appears minor at most. A building inversion and weaker winds will likely allow a very shallow marine layer to begin reforming onshore, though offshore flow overnight will generally limit the extent of any stratus. There remains essentially no chance of rain or thunderstorms through next week. /JHW&JLW



AVIATION
In general, VFR conditions will prevail through Northwest California. The exception will be for more wind protected coastal areas, such as around Humboldt Bay where coastal stratus has a chance to develop. If stratus does develop along protected coastal areas, MVFR conditions are anticipated. Any coastal stratus that does develop will dissipate as north winds strengthen into the afternoon. Gusts from 20 to 30 knots can be expected for terminals in Northwest California this afternoon/evening. /JLW



MARINE
Northerly winds continue to strengthen today across the coastal waters, with the strongest winds south of Cape Mendocino.
Strong to near-gale sustained winds for the southern waters, while moderate to strong breezes for the northern waters. Winds will diminish to moderate breezes north of Cape Mendocino tonight as a progressive and dry cold front moves trough. In the wake of the front, strengthening north winds will form across all waters. Gusts up to around 40 kts are likely south of Cape Mendocino today with the tightening pressure gradient near shore. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the southern waters, but now through late Sunday night. While a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the northern waters through Saturday morning.

By Saturday, northerly winds accelerate across all waters with near- gale to gale force gusts across all coastal waters and persist through the weekend. There is a moderate to high confidence (60-90%)
for gale force gusts across the northern waters Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night. A Gale Watch is in effect for zones 450 and 470 from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night.

Winds are expected to remain elevated early next week due to the strong pressure gradient. Large, steep wind-driven seas will spread over all zones through the weekend and early next week./ZVS



EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ450-470.

Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for PZZ450-470.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ455.

Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ455.

Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ475.