Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kent Narrows, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 6:27PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 8:32 AM EDT (12:32 UTC) Moonrise 7:19PMMoonset 8:43AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 736 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
.gale warning in effect from 6 pm edt this evening through Thursday afternoon...
Today..SE winds 10 kt...becoming nw late. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 4 ft.
Thu..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 kt...becoming s. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 736 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will intensify as it moves off the mid- atlantic coast today. A cold front will pass through the waters late this afternoon into this evening. High pressure will approach for Thursday before settling overhead Friday. High pressure will move offshore during the weekend. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Thursday night and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kent Narrows, MD
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location: 38.97, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 161025
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
625 am edt Wed oct 16 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will continue moving slowly east through the great
lakes today pushing an occluded front into the mid- atlantic
region. A secondary low will then develop near the coast by this
afternoon. This second low will rapidly intensify through
tonight as it lifts northeastward toward new england, then
slowly moves through the canadian maritimes through Friday while
high pressure approaches from the west. This high will move
across the mid-atlantic Friday night, then offshore Saturday.

Another frontal system is possible early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A mid level low was located over lake michigan and vicinity
early this morning with a trough extending southwestward to the
middle mississippi river valley. The low is forecast to move to
the east, reaching southern ontario by evening. The trough is
expected to begin taking on a negative tilt at that time.

Meanwhile at the surface, low pressure was located on lake
huron with a cold front extending to central kentucky and
central tennessee early this morning. The surface low should
move little during the day. However, it will pull the cold front
closer to our region. A secondary low is forecast to develop in
the chesapeake bay vicinity this afternoon and it should begin
passing off the coasts of delaware and southern new jersey
toward evening.

Clouds will continue to be on the increase in our region this
morning with rain arriving from the west and southwest by
afternoon. Impressive lift is expected to develop in advance of
the mid level trough. As a result, the rain will become heavy
for a time and there may even be some thunder.

The wind should favor the southeast and south for much of the
day at speeds around 6 to 12 mph. Maximum temperatures are
expected to range from the upper 50s in the elevated terrain of
the poconos to the lower 70s in southern delaware.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
The mid level low is forecast to move from southern ontario
this evening to southwestern new england toward daybreak on
Thursday. It should pull the negative tilt trough over our
region from southwest to northeast between about 9:00 pm and
1:00 am, bringing an end to the rain.

Rainfall totals are expected to range generally from 1.50 to
2.25 inches from the poconos into northern and central new
jersey. Rainfall amounts should fall between 0.75 and 1.50
inches in southeastern pennsylvania, southern new jersey,
delaware and northeastern maryland. The expected amounts should
not cause any widespread flooding problems, so a flood watch has
not been issued. However, we are anticipating localized
flooding of roadways and areas of poor drainage, which may be
enhanced as fallen leaves clog some storm drains.

The surface low is forecast to intensify rapidly tonight as it
moves from the waters off new jersey up into new england. A west
northwest wind is expected to increase to 15 to 25 mph with
gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Wind gusts around 45 mph are possible in
our coastal counties, so the wind advisory remains in effect
there.

Low temperatures for tonight are expected to favor the 40s.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Thursday through Friday night...

a deep, nearly vertically stacked low will be situated over
central new england to start the period early Thursday. In its
wake a tight pressure gradient will persist over the area
resulting in continuing strong W NW winds. Heading through the
day Thursday, the low will slowly drift east across new england
while starting to fill. Strong winds due to the the tight
gradient will continue most of the day. Forecast soundings
indicate vertical mixing up close to 850 mb. Winds in the
925-850 mb layer look to generally be 35-40 knots so still think
we'll see wind gusts upwards of 40 to 50 mph... Strongest near
the coast where wind advisories remain in effect. Elsewhere, we
did bump up the wind gusts slightly but still not confident
enough to expand advisory. Otherwise Thursday looks to feature
partly to mostly cloudy skies under the influence of the
system's broad upper low with some scattered showers lingering
over the southern poconos. Temperatures will be seasonably cool.

Winds diminish Thursday evening as the low continues to weaken
and move eastward into the canadian maritimes. It will still
remain on the breezy side though with gusts upwards of 15 to 25
mph. Otherwise, variable cloud cover persists with lows mostly
in the 40s.

For Friday, weakening low continues to drift eastward through
atlantic canada while high pressure builds eastward towards the
east coast. This will result in lighter winds and more sunshine
compared to Thursday but it will still be on the breezy side
with seasonably cool temperatures. The high should build right
over the region Friday night resulting in light winds, clear
skies, and good conditions for radiational cooling. As a result,
lows north of the i- 95 corridor look to make it into the 30s
so frost will be possible.

Saturday through Tuesday...

the weather pattern will remain progressive with a period of
continuing fair weather dominated by high pressure lasting most
of the weekend before the next frontal system affects the region
early next week. Temperatures look to generally be near if not
a little above average through the period.

In terms of the details, high pressure sits over the area early
Saturday before slowly sliding off the coast by late day as the
upper level ridge crests along the east coast. This will result
in splendid fall conditions with sunshine, light winds, and
seasonable temperatures as highs will be mainly in the 60s.

High pressure with fair weather looks to dominate Saturday
night through at least the first part of Sunday. However by late
day Sunday an area of warm advection precip looks to be setting
up over the SE CONUS with the northern edge of this possibly
reaching into the mid atlantic by late day and affecting
southern and western parts of the forecast area. Still some
disagreement on the details between the different forecast
models but given that most of the models keep most of the area
dry the majority of the day we continue to limit pops to slight
chance or lower. So it doesn't look like a washout at this
point.

The best chances for rain with the next system look to occur by
Monday, Monday night, possibly lasting into Tuesday as a low
pressure system moves from the great lakes into ontario. This
will will push a warm front through by late Monday followed by a
cold front by late Tuesday.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

This morning... Mainly MVFR ifr ceilings at krdg and kabe.

Generally MVFRVFR cloud cover at our other 6 TAF sites.

Southeast wind 4 to 8 knots.

This afternoon... Conditions lowering to ifr with rain, heavy at
times. Localized thunder is possible, but the threat is not
widespread enough to include in the tafs. Southeast wind 6 to 10
knots.

Early this evening... MVFR and ifr conditions in rain, heavy at
times. Wind becoming northwest around 10 to 15 knots.

Late this evening and overnight... Conditions improving toVFR
with rain ending. West northwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts
of 30 to 40 knots.

Outlook...

Thursday... MVFR possible early, improving toVFR through the
day, although periods of MVFR ceilings may last for some areas.

Chance of showers for abe rdg. Strong west to northwest wind
gusts of 25-35 knots. -high confidence in winds, moderate
confidence in ceilings.

Thursday night... Ceilings may lower to MVFR during the evening
and overnight. Northwest wind gusting 25-30 knots early then
overnight. Diminishing overnight. -high confidence in winds,
moderate confidence in ceilings.

Friday... MainlyVFR. Northwest wind gusts 15-25 knots.

-high confidence in winds, moderate confidence in ceilings.

Friday night-Saturday...VFR conditions expected. Wind gusts
drop off during the evening. -high confidence.

Marine
A southeast wind around 15 to 20 knots is expected for today.

Gusts near 25 knots are possible during the afternoon, so a
small craft advisory remains in effect.

Low pressure is forecast to pass off the coasts of delaware and
new jersey this evening and the wind should become west
northwest in its wake. Wind speeds should increase around 30
knots with gusts near 40 knots. As a result, the gale warning
remain in effect for tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday-Thursday night... Gale warning remains in effect.

Conditions lower below gale force late Thursday night.

Friday... Small craft advisory conditions early, before lowering
through the day..

Friday night-Saturday... Conditions expected to be below
advisory levels.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... Wind advisory from 10 pm this evening to 6 pm edt Thursday for
njz013-014-020>027.

De... Wind advisory from 10 pm this evening to 6 pm edt Thursday for
dez002>004.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon today to 6 pm edt this evening
for anz430-431-450>455.

Gale warning from 6 pm this evening to 6 am edt Friday for
anz430-431-450>455.

Synopsis... Fitzsimmons
near term... Iovino
short term... Iovino
long term... Fitzsimmons
aviation... Fitzsimmons iovino
marine... Fitzsimmons iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 8 mi45 min 63°F
44063 - Annapolis 10 mi27 min S 12 G 14 64°F 67°F1011.4 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 11 mi33 min ESE 13 G 15 63°F 67°F1012.4 hPa (-1.5)63°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 12 mi45 min 63°F 1011.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 17 mi51 min SSE 5.1 G 8 59°F 66°F1012.2 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 23 mi45 min SSE 9.9 G 12 63°F 1011.8 hPa
FSNM2 23 mi57 min SSE 7 G 11 62°F 1011.6 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 27 mi51 min S 2.9 G 6 63°F 68°F1011.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 28 mi123 min Calm 54°F 1012 hPa54°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 29 mi51 min SE 5.1 G 7 59°F 67°F1012 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 30 mi33 min SSE 12 G 12 64°F 1 ft1012.4 hPa (-1.4)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 41 mi51 min SSE 4.1 G 7 62°F 68°F1011.7 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi51 min Calm G 1 53°F 66°F1012.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 46 mi45 min SSE 7 G 8 66°F 69°F1011.2 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD4 mi53 minSSE 67.00 miFair61°F59°F94%1012.2 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD12 mi99 minSE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F61°F93%1011.9 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD15 mi43 minESE 35.00 miFog/Mist59°F57°F94%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KW29

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6E7E7E4NW5
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1 day agoNW3SW3W4W4SW3W3W5W3CalmS4S6S4CalmS3CalmN4N3CalmN3NE3CalmCalmNE3NE4
2 days agoN5N3NE5N5CalmNW4N4CalmN5CalmN3N3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmNW5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Kent Island Narrows, Maryland
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Kent Island Narrows
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Wed -- 02:03 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:00 AM EDT     1.43 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:17 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:40 PM EDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.70.60.70.91.11.41.41.41.20.90.60.40.30.30.50.91.31.71.91.91.81.61.3

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:49 AM EDT     -0.92 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:19 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:54 AM EDT     0.55 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:38 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:33 PM EDT     -0.61 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:16 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:51 PM EDT     0.99 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:16 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.8-0.5-0.10.20.50.50.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.10.30.70.910.90.50.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (8,2,3,4)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.