Wednesday, July17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kent Narrows, MD

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Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 8:31PM Wednesday July 17, 2019 4:24 AM EDT (08:24 UTC) Moonrise 8:16PMMoonset 5:24AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 246 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through this evening...
Overnight..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt until early morning. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 246 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. The remnants of barry will pass north of the waters later today into Thursday. High pressure will build over the southeastern states for Friday into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kent Narrows, MD
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location: 38.97, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 170755
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
355 am edt Wed jul 17 2019

Synopsis the remnants of former tropical cyclone barry will
cross the area later today into Thursday. High pressure will
then generally prevail into the weekend although a weak cold
front associated with a low in canada may cross the area Sunday.

A more significant cold front will pass through the area early
next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
There are several issues on tap for today. Behind a departing
warm front this morning, and then SW flow ushers an increasingly
hot and humid airmass into the northeast and mid-atlantic. High
temperatures will soar into the low to mid 90s with the highest
temperatures along the i-95 corridor and into southeast new
jersey and delmarva. Surface dewpoints climb well into the low
to mid 70s, and even into the upper 70s in parts of the eastern
shore of maryland due to flow off the chesapeake bay. Some
mixing is possible in the afternoon, but dewpoints would only
drop by a few degrees or so, and this really will not have much
of an effect on the heat index.

Max heat index values will approach 100 degrees across the
southern poconos, lehigh valley and far northern new jersey,
while MAX heat index values up to 105 are possible across
portions of southeast pennsylvania and most of new jersey. The
max heat index across parts of DELMARVA could be as high as 110.

Will keep existing heat advisories and excessive heat warnings
in place.

The other concern for today is that with the high heat and
humidity, surface-based CAPE values will range from 1000-2000
j kg, but could be higher in some spots. Pwats will be well in
excess of 2-2.5 inches, and with the approach of the remnants of
barry later today, this sets the stage for afternoon showers
and thunderstorms. There is not much 0-6 km bulk shear,
generally upwards of 20 kt, but with abundant moisture in place,
the primary threat will be heavy rain flash flooding, but
cannot rule out severe storms with damaging wind gusts.

Though convection begins in the afternoon, the most likely
threat for flash flooding and severe weather will be in the
evening, after 6 pm.

Short term tonight
As has been the case in the last several months, the lowest
flash flood guidance values are across much of new jersey and
southeast pennsylvania, generally 1.5-2 inches in 1 hour, and as
high as 3 inches in 3 hours, and as high as 4 inches in 6
hours. Based on latest model QPF fields from the hrrr, NAM nest,
hi-res arw and hi-res nmm, think there will be spots that pick
up 3+ inches of QPF from late afternoon through this evening.

Even the href ensemble MAX qpf showing pockets of 3-5 inches of
rain.

Will go ahead and issue a flash flood watch starting in the
afternoon, but running through 1 am.

There is little consistency among the models as to where the
heaviest precip will fall, but think focus will be along the
i-95 corridor and areas west. For DELMARVA and southeast new
jersey, FFG values are quite a bit higher. Cannot rule out
flooding and flash flooding, but will hold off on the watch for
those areas.

Warm and muggy tonight with lows in the 70s and dewpoints not
much lower than the ambient air temperature. With the moisture
from the rainfall, can expect fog and low stratus to develop in
the wake of the showers and thunderstorms.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Synoptic overview: the long term period begins with both the
mid-lvl and lower lvl circulations associated with barry's
remnants having just crossed the area. An expansive h5 ridge
will then set up over the southern-tier of the us on Friday. The
ridge will remain in place until Sunday at which point a
shortwave trough digging from canada will act to split it. The
western half of the ridge will retrograde into the southwestern
us while the eastern half is pushed offshore into the atlantic.

A fairly healthy (by july standards) cold front associated with
the shortwave's surface reflection will cross the area Monday
into Tuesday.

The main story of the extended continues to be the potential
for excessive heat Friday through Sunday. Fortunately it appears
that beginning early next week the overall synoptic pattern
will become characterized by longwave troughing over the eastern
us. This pattern would favor a more mild end of july.

Dailies:
Thursday... Although deep-layer moisture and dynamic lift will
decrease on Thursday as barry's remnants begin to pull away,
sufficient lingering moisture and instability should be
sufficient for continued showers and thunderstorms. Think the
overall flash flood and severe threats will be lower during the
day on Thursday given the lower moisture instability parameters
and modest height rises behind the departing shortwave. Thursday
will also be a bit cooler than any of the days surrounding it
due to considerable cloud cover precipitation, and generally
think highs will struggle to reach 90. That being said heat
indices could still very well top out near 100 in portions of
the urban corridor as dewpoints remain elevated with somewhat
inhibited mixing due to the aforementioned cloud cover.

Friday Saturday... Friday will be hot and Saturday will be very
hot as the ridge builds to our sw. Heat indices will generally
be in the 100-105 degree range on Friday, while on Saturday
105-110 readings will be common (with locally higher values even
possible). The only real uncertainty is how efficiently
dewpoints can mix down in the afternoons, but regardless
dangerous heat seems like a certainty. Additionally lows in the
upper 70s to low 80s Saturday and Sunday mornings will not help
with any recovery. Kept pops below mentionable both Friday and
Saturday although can't totally rule out some weakly-forced
diurnal storms (e.G. Sea breeze or terrain related).

Sunday... A weak cold front may sneak by the area early Sunday
which will result in temperatures slightly cooler than Saturday,
but still very warm i.E. Heat indices topping out in the
100-105 range. As the ridge flattens and shortwave energy
approaches from the west the chance of showers and thunderstorms
also increases.

Monday Tuesday... The main cold front looks to cross the area
in this time frame and will likely be accompanied by some
precipitation given its dynamic support (an amplifying trough
and southward sagging upper jet). Temperatures Monday are a bit
uncertain and will depend largely on frontal precipitation
timing, however generally think they will top out below any heat
advisory criteria. By Tuesday generally expect high
temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints dropping down into the 60s
with this more mild airmass likely sticking around a bit.

Aviation 04z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... MainlyVFR. Shra tsra possible this afternoon, first at
krdg kabe, then south towards kttn kpne kphl. MVFR or lower
conditions in shra tsra, and tsra will be capable of torrential
rain and strong wind gusts. Winds otherwise SW 5-109 kt, except
at kacy kmiv kilg, where afternoon sea breezes could turn winds
to more of a southerly direction.

Tonight... MVFR or lower in shra tsra through around 06z, then
MVFR or lower in fog stratus. SW winds 5-10 kt, becoming
lgt vrb.

Outlook...

Thursday... Frequent showers and a chance of thunderstorms will
bring a chance of lower CIGS vsbys at times. Possibly some
patchy fog Thursday night. Winds generally 5 kts or less.

Friday through Sunday... MostlyVFR with winds generally
southwesterly westerly 5-10 kts. Some showers and thunderstorms
possible on Sunday.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions on tap for today and tonight with seas
generally around 2-3 feet and SW winds 10-15 kts gusting to 20
kts or less.

This afternoon and tonight, showers and thunderstorms will move
into the waters and could produce locally strong winds, higher
seas, and reduced visibilities.

Outlook...

sub-sca conditions are expected through Sunday winds favoring a
southerly southwesterly direction 10-15 kts and seas generally
3 feet or less. Thunderstorms Thursday may produce locally
higher winds and seas.

Rip currents...

there is a high risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents at the new jersey beaches this afternoon and a moderate
risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at delaware
beaches today.

Southwest winds become south this afternoon at 15-20 kt with
long period swells. Additionally, low tide will occur during mid
to late afternoon. Given these factors plus the proximity to
the full moon, feel the risk will be higher in new jersey where
shoreline orientation is more favorable.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through late
tonight for paz060>062-070-071-101>106.

Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for paz101-103-105.

Excessive heat warning from 8 am this morning to 10 pm edt
Sunday for paz070-071-102-104-106.

Nj... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through late
tonight for njz001-007>010-012-013-015>019.

Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for njz009-010-012-013-016-020>022-027.

High rip current risk from 11 am edt this morning through this
evening for njz014-024>026.

Excessive heat warning from 8 am this morning to 10 pm edt
Sunday for njz015-017>019.

De... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through late
tonight for dez001.

Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for dez002-003.

Excessive heat warning from 8 am this morning to 10 pm edt
Sunday for dez001.

Md... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through late
tonight for mdz008.

Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for mdz008-012-015-019-020.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Carr
near term... Mps
short term... Mps
long term... Carr
aviation... Carr mps
marine... Carr mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 8 mi55 min 82°F 78°F
44063 - Annapolis 10 mi37 min SW 7.8 G 7.8 82°F 84°F1015.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 11 mi85 min SSE 15 G 16 82°F 83°F1016.6 hPa (-1.0)74°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 12 mi55 min 82°F 1014.9 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 17 mi61 min S 4.1 G 8.9 82°F 85°F1015.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 23 mi55 min SSE 9.9 G 12 81°F 1015.1 hPa
FSNM2 23 mi61 min S 5.1 G 8.9 1015.1 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 27 mi61 min SW 1.9 G 4.1 81°F 83°F1014.6 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 29 mi61 min 81°F 85°F1015.9 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 30 mi49 min SSW 12 G 14 81°F 1016.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 40 mi55 min SW 14 G 15 80°F 1016.6 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 41 mi61 min SSW 5.1 G 7 82°F 85°F1015.5 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi61 min S 1 G 2.9 80°F 85°F1015.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 46 mi55 min SSW 11 G 14 80°F 84°F1015.7 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD4 mi45 minS 410.00 miFair81°F73°F79%1015.6 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD12 mi31 minS 410.00 miFair0°F0°F%1015.6 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD15 mi26 minS 610.00 miFair82°F73°F76%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4CalmS4S3SW5W5W4W3SE3SW4SE6S7S9S8S7S5S8S8SW5SW4S4S5S7S6
1 day agoN5N3NE4E6E5NE6CalmCalmN7SW3SW3SE6SE6SE5S3CalmE3CalmSE3CalmE3E3CalmCalm
2 days agoW3W5W5W7W5SW4W6W5SW5W9W7NW7NW10NW7NW5N6N5CalmCalmNW5NW5NW3NW3NW5

Tide / Current Tables for Kent Island Narrows, Maryland
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Kent Island Narrows
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:13 AM EDT     2.11 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:42 PM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:24 PM EDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.60.91.31.722.12.11.91.61.310.80.60.60.70.91.21.31.31.210.70.6

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:24 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:07 AM EDT     1.14 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:33 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:54 PM EDT     -1.09 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:36 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:07 PM EDT     0.56 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:50 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.5-0.20.30.711.110.70.3-0.2-0.7-1-1.1-1-0.7-0.20.10.40.60.50.3-0.1-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (4,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.