Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 12:42 PM   Moonset 1:40 AM

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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 435 Am Edt Thu May 16 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon - .
Rest of the overnight - N winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Today - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Tonight - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Fri - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Sun - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day. Mon - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

ANZ500 435 Am Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
low pressure and its associated cold front will push offshore today as weak high pressure builds over the waters from the south. Additional waves of low pressure and slow-moving fronts will pass through the region late Friday into the weekend. Weak high pressure will briefly return to the waters Monday and Tuesday before another low pressure system impacts the waters midweek. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Saturday and Sunday.

FXUS61 KPHI 160758 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 357 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
An area of low pressure will remain offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast through Friday, before drifting out to sea. High pressure tries to build down into the area from the northeast over the weekend. Another area of low pressure moves across the central Appalachians and offshore of the North Carolina coast later Sunday into Sunday night. Weak high pressure may finally build across the area early next week, before a cold front moves across the east coast by mid week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
We'll have more of the same today and tonight as the coastal low remains just east of the region, and will stay there especially through the day today. It should eventually start to very slowly drift northeastward away from our region late tonight.

While there will likely be some additional light rain or drizzle along eastern portions of the coastal plains, for most of the region, the main impacts will be continued cloudy and (relatively) cool conditions. Highs today will be mostly in the 60s, except in Berks, Lehigh Valley, and western portions of Delmarva, where a few breaks in the clouds during the day may allow for enough solar insolation to result in some lower 70s.

Later tonight, there is a concern for fog potential. Mid level short wave ridging builds in over the region. This subsidence coming during the overnight hours could result in a nearly saturated boundary layer, especially if we see any breaks in the lower clouds. However, much of the guidance that is depicting favorable profiles for fog development, also appears to be too aggressive in clearing the low clouds during the day today, so have low confidence one way or the other.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Ocean storm which has plagued us much of the week may help keep things a bit drier during the end of the week and weekend as it lingers off the coast and only crawls further east. This will slow everything down overall but place a weak blocking ridge over our region Friday and Saturday. While not guaranteed, especially down in the Delmarva and further one gets westward into PA, the resulting blocking high may be enough to keep most of the region dry through this time. That said, some guidance still dislodges the ridge enough to bring some showers across the region, starting later Friday night and continuing into Saturday night, but best chances of rain this weekend do appear to be more Saturday than Sunday. That having been said, still a decent chance that areas from Philly north and east, at least, stay pretty much dry through the weekend. Highs will be influenced due to persistent cloud cover (which won't be giving way so easily) and onshore flow, so while we nudge into the 70s with some better breaks of sun on Friday, 60s will be common Saturday again, and with the easterly flow, cut 5-10 degrees off near the coast. Lows will stay seasonable, with low 50s common.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Next incoming system from the west looks to be shunted south by the slow moving coastal storm which will linger near Atlantic Canada Sunday. Thus, odds of precip Sunday look pretty low now, especially north of Philly, but onshore flow will keep clouds around and temps cool, with highs mostly in the 60s and cooler near the coast.

Upper level ridge then tries building eastward across the region as the aforementioned storm shunted to our south lingers there early next week. Surface high pressure will build over the region as well, so expect some clearing and warming, though at best, temps look likely to return to near normal, as we'll retain a threat of some clouds lingering with the surface high to our north still providing a bit of an onshore gradient. But, at the very least, Monday and Tuesday look quite dry right now.

Things change Wednesday as the next front approaches from the northwest. This will bring a returning threat of showers, maybe even a thunderstorm, but the increased southwesterly flow should help pump temps up a few more degrees, so a few spots especially from Philly south and west might reach 80 or so. Lows thru the end of the weekend into the first half of next week look to be near 50 to mid 50s for much of the region, mildest Tuesday night ahead of the front.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Through Today....Lower clouds will linger for much of the day.
However, for the I95 TAF sites (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, and KILG) and the SE PA sites (KRDG and KABE), the clouds are likely to be on the cusp of MVFR to VFR (especially after 12Z), so there is uncertainty on which side of the threshold the ceilings will be.
At KMIV, expect persistent MVFR ceilings, and at KACY ceilings are likely to be on the cusp of the IFR to MVFR threshold. Winds starting NNW, but should generally settle out of the NNE at 10-15 kts with some gusts to around 20 kts. Moderate confidence on the overall pattern, but low confidence on exactly which flight category the ceilings will be in.

Tonight...This evening, expect similar conditions as what is prevailing through the day. However, near or after midnight, if we see any breaks in the clouds, it could be enough for fog to develop, resulting in IFR or lower conditions. That being said, this is dependent on breaks in the low clouds and guidance that depicts fog potential in general appears too aggressive in depicting clearing. Also, it will be very localized if it does develop. Thus, low confidence on it occuring at any one TAF site. NE winds continue, but speeds should diminish to less than 10 kt. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.

Friday Night-Saturday...VFR/MVFR likely. Chance SHRA.

Saturday Night-Sunday...MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

Sunday Night-Monday...VFR likely. NO SIG WX.

MARINE
For the Atlantic coastal waters, expect Small Craft Advisory conditions to continue today and tonight.

On the Delaware Bay, though there may be some gusts around 20 kt, expect them to stay below 25kt, thus, no SCA conditions are anticipated at this time.

Outlook...

Friday...Small Craft Advisory on all NJ and DE adjacent ocean waters with waves of 4-6 feet, subsiding late. Sub-SCA on the Delaware Bay. Wind gusting no higher than 20 kts all waters.

Friday night thru Saturday night...Mainly sub-SCA. Wind gusts to 20 kt. Wave heights generally below 5 feet. Chance SHRA.

Sunday thru Sunday night...SCA conditions possible. Wind gusts to 20 kt. Wave heights up to 5 feet. Slight chance SHRA.

Monday...Mainly sub-SCA. Wind gusts to 20 kt. Wave heights mainly below 5 feet. NO SIG WX.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ450>455.

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Kent Island Narrows
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Thu -- 12:19 AM EDT     1.43 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:55 AM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:44 PM EDT     1.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:40 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kent Island Narrows, Maryland, Tide feet

Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:55 AM EDT     0.65 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:15 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:56 AM EDT     -0.45 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:40 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:48 PM EDT     0.57 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:43 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:11 PM EDT     -0.77 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:31 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots

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