Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Annapolis, MD

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Annapolis, MD

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Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington

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FXUS61 KLWX 290109 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 909 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure over upstate South Carolina will continue to push northward through Wednesday bringing increased shower chances, cloud cover, and below normal temperatures to the region. Rain chances begin to decrease while temperatures increase later this week as high pressure builds back into the region.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Relative to the past 24 hours, the lower atmosphere has significantly moistened up per ACARS soundings. There still remains some dry air in the lowest 150-mb, but radar echoes approaching from the southeast should further saturate the sub- cloud layer. Current surface observations show dew point depressions in the 10 to 15 degree range. While most approaching showers are relatively weak in nature, some 35 to 40 dBZ echoes have begun to emerge out of the Virginia Tidewater region. As these showers lift toward the northwest, a brief moderate downpour is possible over portions of central Virginia.

Aside from any enhancements along frontogenetic bands, a lot of the activity will be loosely defined. There will likely be a defined cut off where precipitation ceases as dry air sits to the north. Some drizzle may squeeze out for areas north of I-70, but these locations will largely remain dry overnight. In terms of temperatures, enhanced cloud cover and persistent easterly flow will hold temperatures in the 50s, locally into the low 60s for the metro regions and along the Cheseapeake Bay.

SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A lull in activity is likely Monday morning. The highest coverage of showers/storms is expected during peak heating each afternoon Monday and Tuesday. Most of the model guidance now keep rain chances low north of US-50, though that will ultimately depend on how far north the frontal boundary makes it.

The 12Z high res guidance today indicates a signal for possibly some heavy rainfall along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge and in parts of central VA. This area could see repeated rounds of rain through Tuesday, and will be aided by orographic lift. Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.25-0.75" are forecast south of I-66, with isolated higher amounts of 1.00-1.25". Along the Blue Ridge, rainfall amounts of 2-3" are forecast with isolated amounts up to 4" possible. This could lead to isolated instance of flooding in poor drainage and low-lying areas.

Afternoon temperatures over the next couple of days will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s. Muggy overnight conditions with lows in the 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue with moderating temperatures later this week. Overall not much change in the blocky pattern with residual troughing moving across Canada and a gradually flattening of the upper level ridge to the east. At the surface, closed low pressure will continue to linger across the region while gradually weakening and drifting offshore Wednesday into Thursday.
This will allow the chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms on both days with the higher coverage on Wednesday compared to Thursday as an area of diffuse high pressure builds aloft. Although ensemble and deterministic guidance show a bit of variance the tendency remains for higher coverage of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms during the daytime hours Wednesday compared to Thursday as the high builds in aloft. Precipitation chances do not go to zero completely Thursday nor Friday although Friday appears to be drier as high pressure continues build into the region.
Convection once again will be confined to the daylight hours, but should be mainly terrain induced on both days with the potential of one or two isolated showers/thunderstorms flaring up further east along the bay/river breeze.

A backdoor cold front looks to drop into the region from the northeast for the upcoming weekend ahead. 12z deterministic/ensemble guidance continues to show some differences on the timing of front along with the potential for showers and thunderstorms compared to earlier runs from this morning. Latest guidance suggest a frontal passage on Saturday afternoon and evening leading to increased shower and thunderstorm chances across the region. The front will quickly pass through Saturday night with high pressure building in from the north Sunday into early next week.

Near normal temperatures are expected Wednesday with excess cloud cover and showers. Highs by Thursday and Friday will warm back above average with highs potentially around 90 degrees in most locations.
This trend will likely continue into Saturday ahead of the backdoor cold front as 850 mb temperatures approach +12 to +16 degrees C.
Humidity values will also be on the increase as well with relief not expected until the end of the weekend as cooler and drier air filter in.

Forecast confidence in the long term periods remains moderate due to large model spread for both precipitation chances and temperatures within the mid and late week period.

AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As a frontal boundary and associated area of low pressure lift north from the Carolinas over the next couple of days, expect sub-VFR conditions at most terminals, except for MRB where it will likely stay VFR through the period.

Sub-VFR conditions are expected to hold off at most terminals until late this evening to tonight, as clouds slowly move in from the south. For DCA/IAD, steady MVFR CIGs arrive late tonight, and could be followed by a period of IFR CIGs Monday morning to afternoon, though confidence was not high enough to include in TAFs at this time. CIGs could drop down to MVFR at BWI/MTN sometime tonight or Monday.

A high coverage of showers is expected each afternoon through Tuesday at CHO, with lower coverage at the other terminals. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible, again the highest chance for that is at CHO. VFR conditions could return Monday evening, though confidence is low as it will depend on where the surface low tracks and if clouds can lift.

Closed upper level low pressure will continue to linger through Wednesday as high pressure builds aloft later this week. Periodic sub-VFR restrictions remain likely through this time especially during the early morning hours due to low clouds and the afternoon with diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Confidence continues to increase for VFR conditions returning Thursday into Friday as high pressure builds back into the region. Sub-VFR conditions potentially return with a backdoor cold front for the first half of the weekend.

MARINE
SCA conditions with gusts up to 20 knots continue through the evening across the southern waters of the Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac. The extratropical low over the Carolinas meanders toward the area early in the week. Winds are forecast to decrease this evening and tonight, but will likely pick back up to SCA- level Monday afternoon in parts of the central/southern bay.
There is also a low chance for a few thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday afternoons.

SCA level winds could linger into Wednesday although the pressure gradient will continue to relax as low pressure weakens and high pressure builds into the region. Winds will remain out of the northeast Wednesday before switching to the south and southwest Thursday and Friday. Sub-SCA conditions are expected during this time.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ534- 537-543.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Annapolis, MD

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Airport Reports

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Link to 5 minute data for KNAK

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Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Annapolis, Maryland

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