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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 701 Pm Est Thu Nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 am est Friday...
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely.
Sat..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain. Patchy fog.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

ANZ500 701 Pm Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
high pressure will continue to slide offshore through tonight. Another frontal system and area of low pressure push through the area Friday into Saturday. A stronger frontal system looks to cross the waters early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed Friday night due to southerly channeling.

FXUS61 KLWX 301943 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 243 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure moving offshore will keep us dry late this afternoon and tonight. Rain chances return Friday as an area of low pressure approaches from the Ohio River Valley. Additional waves of low pressure look to bring excess cloud cover and precipitation chances to the region this weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Additional mid-level and high clouds will move across the region late this afternoon into tonight. Dry conditions will continue through tonight ahead of a low pressure system on Friday.
Temperatures will top out in the middle to upper 50s. Moisture will increase ahead of Friday's system. Low temperatures tonight should not be as chilly as recent nights given the southwest wind and additional mid-level cloud cover. Lows in the middle 30s with some upper 20s in the coldest spots.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A complex low pressure system will move across the Midwest and Lower Great Lakes Friday into Friday night. A piece of energy from this system will move across our CWA Friday afternoon and evening and spread rain showers over a large portion of our area. Rain amounts should be light perhaps a quarter of an inch or less in most places. Rain may not start until late Friday morning in the west and then eventually reaching the metros by mid-afternoon Friday and continue off and on into early Friday.
Once an affiliated front passes through, drier conditions will move in but could be short lived as the next of a series of mid-level disturbances move in later on Saturday. Friday's high temperatures will start in the middle 30s but are expected to warm up through the 40s into the lower 50s Friday afternoon.
Breezy conditions will accompany the rainfall Friday with gusts of 25 mph at times Friday afternoon and evening.

Drier conditions Friday night into Saturday as the best isentropic lift works north of the region. A southwest flow will continue aloft as broad upper level troughing remains over the central CONUS. We will keep a low end chance for showers in place over most of the forecast region with higher chances west of the Allegheny Front and to the south across the southern MD/northern neck of VA where better forcing resides. Cloud cover will also be in abundance with a notable warm surge as the warm front lifts in Saturday afternoon. High temperatures will push into the upper 50s and low to mid 60s. Lows Saturday night will fall into the mid to upper 40s and low 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A large trough will be diving into the Midwest Sunday, then pivoting over the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Monday. At the surface, a primary low track across the lower Great Lakes looks most likely, with secondary cyclogenesis possible offshore of southern New England.
Without a cold airmass in place, precipitation type looks like rain, though a change to upslope snow showers is possible by Monday night along and west of the Allegheny Front. Upslope snow shower activity could linger Tuesday, though this is the most likely time for a lull.

A trailing trough looks to dive across the Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys Tuesday night, then move offshore of the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday. The placement of this trough, as well as ridging upstream over the Rockies (with an axis through Idaho) and downstream ridging near Greenland would favor unsettled weather locally. However, the favorable ridge/trough/ridge configuration is transient, lasting only 6-12 hours, so things would have to come together just right for a more impactful storm east of the mountains. There may be enough cold air in place for wintry precipitation types, however, so this period will require close monitoring.

Another period of upslope snow showers is possible into Thursday.
Otherwise, cooler than normal temperatures and blustery conditions are anticipated areawide as the trough moves away.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions with some mid-level and high clouds late this afternoon into this evening. CIGS will remain between 6-12 kft with south/southwest winds occasionally gusting up to 15 kts this afternoon/evening.

An area of low pressure will move to the north and west of the area Friday into Friday night. Periods of sub-VFR conditions remain possible at some of the TAF sites. This includes a period of MVFR ceilings and showers especially during the late morning and afternoon period Friday. South to southwesterly winds will continue Friday gusting between 15 to 25 kts Friday afternoon/evening. Some LLWS is possible during the afternoon period especially at terminals west of the Blue Ridge.

Sub-VFR conditions will remain possible at times Saturday as additional waves of low pressure push through. Winds will remain out of the south and southwest Saturday with gusts under 10kts.
Higher gusts are likely at terminals along and west of the Allegheny Front.

Sub-VFR conditions are likely Sunday as low pressure and associated rain showers/lower CIGs move across the region. Modest clearing and blustery W/NW winds are anticipated Monday.

MARINE
SCAs remain in effect later this afternoon into this evening due to southerly channeling. Additional SCAs are possible Friday as an area low pressure moves north and west of the waters. This will lead to a brief uptick in winds during the late morning and late afternoon hours. Sub- SCA level winds are expected on Saturday. Winds will remain out the south Saturday.

Low pressure is likely to move near or over the area Sunday into Sunday night. Southerly flow ahead of the low could approach SCA levels late Sunday, with gusty W/NW winds likely on Monday.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Friday for ANZ531>534-537- 539>543.

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Annapolis
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Thu -- 01:44 AM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:35 AM EST     0.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:25 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:23 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:47 PM EST     1.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Annapolis, Maryland, Tide feet

Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Thu -- 01:13 AM EST     -1.11 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:05 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:28 AM EST     0.47 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:06 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:24 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:47 PM EST     -0.49 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:13 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:03 PM EST     1.06 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:31 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots

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