Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Annapolis, MD

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
The early evening frontal analysis places a slow moving warm front across northern Maryland back into southeastern Virginia.
The air mass within the warm sector is rather moist as the 00Z IAD sounding showed a precipitable water value of 1.41 inches.
Despite all of the moisture in place, the overall lift is on the weak side which has allowed approaching echoes to be very disorganized. A band of showers has struggled east of the Blue Ridge with only some scattered activity moving toward the Baltimore metro this evening. With the parent cold front still west of the Allegheny Front, some additional spotty showers are possible during the first half of night.

Mild conditions are expected tonight underneath mostly cloudy skies. Forecast lows will be in the 50s to low 60s, with a few upper 40s along the Allegheny Front.

SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
By Tuesday morning, the aforementioned cold front will be exiting the area to the southeast before stalling to the south on Wednesday.
With the proximity of the frontal boundary, precipitation is possible in the southernmost portions of the forecast area. That being said, high pressure building to the north will keep conditions primarily dry both days.

Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 70s to low 80s each day with those at higher elevations staying in the 60s.
Overnight lows drop into the 40s and 50s both nights.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Upper-level ridging continues to develop over the region into the day on Thursday. However, a very broad upper trough begins to develop over the western/central CONUS. A weak shortwave embedded within the quasi-zonal flow between those two features may bring chances for showers Thursday night. Expect a mild day ahead of this feature on Thursday with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s (60s in the mountains).

This will be followed by another mild day on Friday, but with chances for showers, and perhaps even a thunderstorm or two as a more potent shortwave traverses the region late Friday into Saturday.

An upper-level ridge then begins to move in, and surface high pressure builds to our north. This should result in dry conditions across the region with highs generally seasonable.

AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions are primarily expected across all terminals this evening. Any showers moving toward the I-95 corridor have been falling apart rather quickly. Thus, do not expect any impacts with such showers. As a cold front to the west tracks through overnight, a spotty shower cannot be ruled out. However, VFR conditions are likely to prevail both in the wake, and through mid-week as high pressure builds in.

Winds shift to northwesterly behind the front on Tuesday before shifting to west/northwesterly on Wednesday. Light winds are expected, blowing less than 10 knots.

A warm front will slowly approach the area from the south on Thursday before moving through on Friday. This comes with an increase in shower/thunderstorm activity, particularly by Friday.
Consequently, some restrictions are possible in this regime. Winds both days should mainly be out of the south to southeast, while picking up in intensity to around 15 knots on Friday.

MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 2AM due to southerly channeling. Winds shift to northwesterly overnight in the wake of a cold front moving over the waters with winds expected to diminish below SCA criteria late tonight. Winds are expected to remain below SCA criteria Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure builds to the north.

Friday as a warm front moves through. The passage of this boundary also raises the chances for showers and thunderstorms over the waterways. South to southeasterly winds may near Small Craft Advisory levels for the second half of Friday.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ532>534-537- 540>543.