NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS63 KEAX 091142 AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 542 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Discussion
Issued at 209 AM CST SAT DEC 9 2023

Key Messages:

- Dry conditions with seasonal temperatures this weekend.

- Next chance for precipitation coming Friday - Saturday.

Discussion:

Water vapor imagery with 500mb heights overlaid shows broad troughing over the middle of the country. Embedded within this broad upper troughing are several shortwaves. One is pushing through northwestern MO as of 08Z with another shortwave moving across MN. At the surface, a low pressure was moving into western IL with the cold front pushed south of the forecast area. Drier air is working into the area behind the front while broad cyclonic flow aloft is maintaining mid and upper-level clouds. As that surface low moves northeast, with with the shortwave trough, surface high pressure will shift southward into the central Plains. This will allow the pressure gradient to remain relatively tight over the eastern Plains and mid-Missouri River valley. This will lead to breezy conditions from late this morning through this afternoon with gusts to 35mph expected for northwestern MO and northeastern KS. Gusts should quickly diminish with the loss of daytime heating and resulting stabilization of the boundary layer. The drier high pressure area over the region will keep the weather dry but also keep temperatures very close to normal. Normal temperatures for this time of year are highs in the low to mid 40s and lows in the mid 20s.

Those dry conditions will linger through most of next week as that surface high pressure gets reinforced with another high that will dominate the conditions across the eastern half to two-thirds of the US. This will occur under a developing upper-level ridge so we'll see competing forces influence our temperatures. Overall, this pattern should favor a trend for slightly above normal temperatures next week. Indeed, highs will vary from the upper 40s to the lower 50s throughout the week.

The next chance for precipitation will come Friday into Saturday.
Models show a cutoff low gets stuck underneath the upper ridge with that cutoff low then moving eastward into the area as the upper ridge loses some of its strength late in the week. That cutoff then meanders over the area allowing for unsettled weather conditions. At the moment, it looks too warm to support any wintry precipitation so the expectation is for another chilly rain.

Aviation
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 542 AM CST SAT DEC 9 2023

VFR conditions are expected through the period. 10 to 12 knot winds out of the NW this morning will increase to around 15 to 18 knots with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots by late morning and continuing through the afternoon hours, finally relaxing by around 00z this evening.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO,