DISCUSSION
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Currently in the mid to upper-levels of the atmosphere, a positively- tilted trough resides over the northeastern United States with expansive ridging adjacently located to the west. Partly cloudy conditions will persist through the overnight hours due to cloud coverage detracting from the stationary boundary over the southeastern United States, with precipitation remaining to the south and to the east of our area.

A weak low pressure system centered over the south-central United States is expected to move north over the next few hours, with showers making their way into the southeastern sections of the forecast area. Additionally, the associated moisture advection increases chances for showers and storms this afternoon. Surface- based CAPE values are forecast to range from 1,000-2,500 J/Kg this afternoon, which would certainly aid in the development of thunderstorms, albeit deep-layer shear values aren't as robust. The cloud cover and precipitation will aid in keeping Saturday's high temperatures across the forecast area in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with the latter values most likely occurring in the eastern portions. Latest GFS model guidance indicates the low pressure center traversing over the Kansas City metro around midnight tonight, with the accompanying showers and storms impacting conditions along this MO/IL border and down south along the Mississippi River. Another cold front out of the central plains yields a marginal severe risk for northwestern portions of our area tomorrow afternoon. A high CAPE/low shear environment similar to today's convective forecast describes tomorrow environmental profile as well.

As the low pressure center evolves into a more open wave and slides east tomorrow afternoon, a robust ridge over the western United States advects east. The axis of the thermal ridge is anticipated to be over the central plains, with the center residing over northeastern Texas. The positioning of the anticyclonic heat dome will be the cause of hazardously high temperature throughout the workweek. Latest forecast guidance shows afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s across eastern portions of the forecast area.
Associated heat indices are expected to be in the triple digits, ranging from 100-115 degrees F starting on Monday and going through Thursday. Fortunately, dew points will remain in the low 70s, enabling short windows of relief between peak temperatures. There is potential for a heat advisory to take beginning on Monday, with continual environmental monitoring to gauge this possibility.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail during this TAF period.
Scattered showers currently entering the overall forecast area should remain southeast of the TAF sites, so no mention in the TAFs.
Cloud coverage is forecast to increase at the TAF sites in the afternoon hours. There is a possibility for MVFR-threshold ceilings traversing across the terminals from the south around 17Z, but will keep cloud heights VFR (with the lowest ceilings most likely being around 6000 feet) due to low confidence. Winds will be light and maintain a south-southeasterly flow at 5-10 knots.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.