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FXUS63 KEAX 292335 AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 535 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Discussion
Issued at 305 PM CST WED NOV 29 2023

Key messages:

- Rain is expected to overspread the area tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night from south to north.

- After midnight tomorrow night rain is expected to transition to a period of freezing rain and then over to snow across northern Missouri and eastern Kansas.

- Light snow of freezing drizzle will continue to be possible across northern Missouri through the day Friday into Friday night.

Discussion:

Modest WAA and weak upper ridging has brought mild conditions to the area today even over areas where a dwindling snowpack still exists across northern Missouri and northeast Kansas. Highs are in the upper 40s to near 60. Tonight a upper level trough, which will be the next weather maker, will move from central California to the Four Corners region. This will push a cold front to east central Nebraska south across central Kansas. Continued weak WAA tonight ahead of the front will keep lows in the 30s to near 40. The Upper level trough will move from the Four Corners into the Panhandles of OK/TX by Thursday evening forcing the cold front into the area. WAA spreading north ahead of the upper level trough will allow rain to spread north across the forecast area Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Highs Thursday will range from the mid 40s to lower 50s. Thursday night a surface low will travel along the I-44 corridor south of the forecast area. This will swing winds around to the NE and allow colder air to filter into the area. There are subtle model discrepancies that where some model solutions drop temperatures below freezing across the northern CWA where other model solutions including the warmer GFS keeps temperatures above freezing. Have trended towards the warmer solutions which would limit wintry precipitation across northern Missouri/northeastern Kansas late Thursday night into Friday morning. It is here rain will transition to a period of freezing rain and then over to snow. Snow totals are expected to be less than an inch and ice accumulation less than a tenth of an inch. A winter weather advisory may be needed. Temperatures will warm enough during the day on Friday for precipitation so transition back into liquid form with light rain or drizzle expected. This may linger into Friday evening before the upper level trough moves out of the region.

Conditions look to quiet down this weekend despite the NBM holding on to chance POPs Saturday night into Sunday. These POPs are hold overs from a secondary shortwave trough that was initially progged to move through the region. This feature is significantly weakened in recent model runs with very little chance of precipitation being produced by any model during this period. Saturday high pressure is expected to build over the area proving for weak mixing as such, highs are only expected to reach the upper 30s to near 50. Sunday a broad upper level trough will move through the region bringing downslope westerly flow to the region with highs rising into the lower 40s to lower 50s. Monday into Tuesday another upper level trough will move through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Any precipitation with this system is expected to remain north of the area. Temperatures are expected to remain in the lower 40s to lower 50s through this period.

Aviation
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 532 PM CST WED NOV 29 2023

VFR coditions through 12Z Thursday. Outside chance of seeing valley fog at STJ around 12-13Z, but increasing clouds should limit chances. Low level jet at 1000-1500 feet will draw increasing moisture into the region overnight, and clouds should expand northward Thursday morning. Could also see some spotty rainshowers, but much more widespread rain is expected Thursday evening.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO,