Merriam, KS Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Merriam, KS

June 22, 2024 4:41 AM CDT (09:41 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 8:49 PM
Moonrise 9:04 PM   Moonset 5:01 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Merriam, KS
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Area Discussion for - Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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FXUS63 KEAX 220847 AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 347 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated/Scattered Storms Tonight; A Few Severe Possible

- Hot and Humid Over Next 7 Days

- Additional Shower/Storm Chances Through Midweek

DISCUSSION
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

H5 short-wave perturbation over Iowa will continue to moving toward the Great Lakes Region as a another short-wave/vort max over the Rockies develops and is set to eject across the Central Plains later this afternoon. This will continue to deamplify the H5 ridge pattern that has aided in bringing warm and humid conditions to the region this weekend. The dCVA with this short-wave over the Front Range has been intensifying resulting in surface cyclogenesis across the High Plains during the early morning hours. Already starting to see modest pressure falls into the eastern Plains and western portions of the lower Missouri River Valley, and with this surface flow has been slowly backing. This has continued to provide enhanced theta-e advection heading into the overnight hours. Moisture transport between 850-700mb has been stronger than originally anticipated which has largely eliminated the EML that had been present the past few days, and current GOES-16 satellite products show cloud cover over much of Central Kansas this morning that will shift eastward with the cyclone tracking across the area. There is some low-end potential to see a few pop-up showers through the afternoon with warm and moist boundary layer in-place, though if we see increasing cloud cover prior to noon, destabilization will not be as rapid as it was on Friday afternoon. Kinematic forcing starts to increase after 21z this afternoon when the rate of H5 height falls increases along with surface pressure falls and convergence along the trailing cold front. The cold front will be the main feature of focus for eventual convection initiation across our forecast area. CAMs solutions have been wavering since last night with respect to favored timing of CI. With the HRRR specifically, some runs has started CI as early as 21z, with other holding off until 00z when the front has reached about the Interstate 35 corridor in Central Missouri. While the convergence and other kinematic support may be present as early as 21z, there is concern that HRRR/RAP may be mixing out too rapidly and not handling the cloud cover incoming from central Kansas overly well. While temperatures in the upper 90s may be possible, the mixing of dewpoints down into the lower 60s as indicated by the HRRR may be too strong. Thinking it will take a bit longer for boundary layer destabilization and will need the cold front to be much closer for sufficient convergence. Therefore, thinking most favorable timing for CI will be after 23z this evening, and perhaps may hold until after 00z. One factor benefiting CI is the cap is much weaker with the lack of EML. However, while CI may be easier to come by with this moisture advection, it is impacting the mid-level lapse rates considerably which may play a role in updraft strength once CI occurs, and also will limit coverage of storms. Overall MLCAPE and SBCAPE values will be easy to realize with the high theta-e boundary this afternoon, HRRR mean values in the ballpark of 2000-2500 J/kg. With cold front and surface cyclone creating enough convergence, CI should be able to get going. The main question is how strong can the activity get, and will it be maintained and how that changes areal coverage. Mid-level lapse rates may struggle to steepen beyond 7.0 C/km today, and will be battling at 700mb temperature near 12.0C. Updrafts close to the front with 0-6km bulk shear values between 30-40 kts may quickly become sheared apart if the updrafts are not overly wide. Perhaps stronger low-level storm-relative inflow could help feed a stronger moisture content into the storms to overcome this, but ideally would need better mid-level buoyancy for parcel ascent to continue. With that being said, initial discrete storms along the front will primarily pose a wind threat, especially if a well mixed boundary layer fosters high theta-e deficits by late this evening that could generate stronger evaporative cooling. Although there is some CAPE present within the hail growth zone, the potential for stronger storm-relative inflow with weaker mid-level lapse rates likely limited the large hail threat though still could see quarter to half- dollar size hail with stronger updrafts. With backing surface winds ahead of the approaching cyclone, low-level hodographs will demonstrate clockwise curvature that could yield 0-1km SRH values near 150 m^2/s^2 in close proximity to the cold front. This may be able to support a brief tornado if updrafts are able to overcome the weaker low-level lapse rates and become a supercell. However, depending on initial storm motions though and increasing deep layer shear, the discrete storm updrafts may become too quickly disrupted before surface vorticity can be effectively realized in our area.
Better environment for a tornado threat will be further north and northeast of our counties. Therefore, tornado threat appears very limited at this time in north-central Missouri, and will mainly focus on damaging wind threat with storms. Eventually, the low-level jet ramps up and isolated/scattered storms will start to congeal into a few clusters. If the boundary layer remains well mixed, some of the LLJ momentum may be transported downward that would continue a damaging wind threat with storm clusters heading into the evening.
Again though, some storms may end up being very short-lived if the kinematics and moist boundary layer can't overcome the meager mid- level lapse rates. Storms should then exit the area by early morning Sunday as the cold front moves through the area. With respect to QPF, the front looks to be rather progressive across our area which should limit most hydro related concerns. The GEFS and other ensemble suites have rather high probabilities for QPF of at least 0.10 inches, generally above 60 percent for areas along and north Interstate 70 in our forecast area. The GEFS does have a swath of 30- 40 percent probabilities for at least 0.50 inches of QPF as the low- level jet ramps up across portions of Central Missouri. The HRRR mean has not been overly excited with QPF, generally between 0.25- 0.35 inches for most areas. Local probability matched mean values for QPF from the 00z HRRR has a few pockets of 1.5 inches, which could be realized with more robust updrafts in a environment with PWATs approaching 2". Expecting anywhere between 0.25 to 0.50 inches for areas that seems thunderstorms this evening, with localized amounts between 0.75 to 1.00 inch possible. Will need to monitor a few rivers in streams in north-central and northwest Missouri should heavier rainfall activity occur.

After the front passage on Sunday morning, most deterministic model guidance depicts the mid and upper-level ridge amplifying again that will bring another H5 height regime across most of the region and promote southerly flow at the lower-levels of the troposphere. The WPC Cluster Analysis for Monday through Thursday has most members in good agreement for prominent ridging that will bring warm temperatures and humid conditions for most of this week. Amongst NBM members, the inner-quartile values are between 97 and 101F for most points in our forecast area, with a consistent signal for dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is expected to yield triple digit heat index values multiple times next week, and may see a few days where this meets or exceed 105. In addition, a few vort maxes may drive around the ridge axis that could bring periods of precipitation. Right now the best signal for accumulating rainfall and storm chances is on Tuesday with a short-wave that drops out of Canada, and most ensemble suites also focus increasing probabilities for rainfall through the middle of the next work week. With temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints in the 70s, could potentially see a boundary layer that promotes potential for stronger storms and perhaps may see some severe potential, though this will largely depend on how strong mid-level flow is and the resultant deep layer shear environment. Will also need to keep a closer eye on QPF trends and implications for river flows from eastern Kansas to central Missouri.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Upper-level cloud cover will increase through the day as a cold front moves across Kansas toward the area. Winds will increase through the afternoon eventually reaching between 20-25 kts.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to start after 00z in western Missouri. Uncertain at this point if these will start near the terminals are if they hold off until the front is east of them. For now, will place VCTS for a few hours in the TAFs toward the end of the afternoon on Saturday.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.




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