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FXUS63 KEAX 071959 AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 159 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Discussion
Issued at 147 PM CST THU DEC 7 2023

Key Messages...

- Warm and windy through the remaining afternoon hours.

- Friday: Rain chances increase through the evening and overnight.
Low (10 to 20%) chance of scattered thunderstorms south of the Missouri River into central Missouri through Midnight. No severe weather expected.

Detailed Discussion...

Temperatures have pushed well past 60 across the area this afternoon. Through 130 PM, St. Joe has broken it's previous record high of 64, reaching 65, and we've reached 65 F at the office. These temperatures are running 15 to 20 degrees above normal.
Additionally, southwest winds have been gusting through the day, with peak wind gusts reported across the region between 30 and 40 mph. Mid-level Water Vapor imagery paints a pretty clear picture, with a steep ridge axis extending from the Gulf Coast to eastern Canadian Prairies. Quick on it's heels, the large western trough continues to churn eastward ashore of the West Coast, with several short wave impulses ejecting out ahead through the intermountain west and Rockies. The first of these, the cause for the stout surface trough impinging on the western High Plains and assisting with the strong southwesterly flow.

Overnight, winds will relax, but temperatures will be slow to decrease, reaching the mid 40s to 50 for lows Friday morning. With south-southwest return flow persisting, increased forcing for ascent will exist ahead of the surface trough lifting northeast off the southern Plains through Friday afternoon. A modest ribbon of 100 to 500 J/KG MLCAPE will develop across the Ouachita Mountains through the western Ozarks of southwest Missouri. Given a decent shear environment, agree with SPC's Marginal (5 to 10%) risk for severe storms across southwest Missouri and southeastern Kansas. Farther north, north of the western Lake of the Ozarks region, there should be enough instability for a low (10 to 20%) chance of scattered thunderstorms through the evening and toward midnight, generally focused along the surface trough across west central and central Missouri. Overall, no severe storms are expected this far north, but don't be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder Friday night. As for wintry precipitation, the concern is basically zero now, with surface temps and more importantly surface wet bulb temps, remaining above freezing through the end of precipitation. Measurable rainfall will generally exist along and east of I-35, anywhere from a few tenths to a half inch in north central Missouri.

Similar to yesterday, guidance has maintained the more progressive push of this system, with any remaining rain clearing the region through daybreak Saturday. With Saturday looking dry, it will be cooler, more seasonable, as the H500 trough finally moves east through the day, clearing through Sunday morning. Sunday into early next week, dry and seasonable conditions will follow as shallow ridging sets up over the central CONUS. Through late week, long range solutions very a bit with timing and intensity, but a western trough is forecast to emerge across the western CONUS, but for now our forecast remains dry.

Aviation
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM CST THU DEC 7 2023

VFR conditions are expected to remain for the duration of the TAF period. Southerly winds will range in the mid to high teens and gust as high as 30 knots. Winds will begin to weaken overnight and shift to a more southwesterly direction.



EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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