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FXUS63 KEAX 101220 AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 620 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Discussion
Issued at 154 AM CST SUN DEC 10 2023

Key Messages:

- Dry and seasonal conditions to start the week.

- Modestly warmer and continued dry through mid to late week.

- Next chance for precipitation may come this weekend.

Discussion:

Surface high pressure will dominate the middle of the country today resulting in seasonal temperatures and dry conditions. That high shifts to the east of the area Monday and we'll see winds shift to the south as a result. This will help Monday warm up several degrees to the upper 40s and lower 50s. A weak front will move through the area Tuesday which will knock a few degrees off highs, sending us back to seasonal levels. Behind that front though, another stronger area of high pressure will settle across the eastern half of the CONUS, keeping moisture well south of the area, helping to keep the area dry through the middle of the week.

As these lower-level features are influencing our weather the first half of the week, in the upper-levels a strong ridge will be building across western North America with a cutoff low getting stuck under the ridge over generally the Four-Corners area. The ridging in the mid-levels will actually be quite strong with the NAEFS showing 850mb and 700mb heights forecast to be at maximum values with respect to climatology for three week period centered on Thursday. 1000-850mb thickness values also suggest highs would be in the mid to possibly upper 50s. But this puts the forecast above the 95th percentile and confidence just isn't high enough at this point to trend that warm. In fact, the model certainty tool indicates no probability for highs exceeding 55 degrees for Thursday. For now, will stick with the far more likely outcome with highs near or just above 50 degrees for Thursday.

Models vary greatly with how the Southwestern US cutoff low ejects eastward. The GFS is much farther south and keeps precipitation well south of the area as a result. The ECMWF is farther north and allows deeper moisture to advect northward ahead of the ejecting shortwave. This then spreads precipitation into the forecast area. Ensemble mean 500mb height plots naturally washout the upper low with the GEFS and ECMWF being quite similar. The NBM has trended drier for Saturday, which is fine given the uncertainty. Slight chance PoPs seem reasonable given it's a day 6 to day 7 forecast.

Aviation
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CST SUN DEC 10 2023

VFR conditions are expected through the period with a scattered to broken mid to high level cloud deck this afternoon into late tonight. Light winds out of the west will turn southerly by this evening.



EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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