Merriam, KS Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Merriam, KS

June 13, 2024 2:37 PM CDT (19:37 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 8:46 PM
Moonrise 11:47 AM   Moonset 12:19 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Merriam, KS
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Area Discussion for - Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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FXUS63 KEAX 131738 AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1238 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat and humidity continue today. High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with heat index values from 100-106F anticipated.

- The chance for strong to severe thunderstorms this evening continues. The primary threats are for large to giant hail (2-4 inches), damaging winds, and heavy rainfall. The overall environment remains volatile with outcomes ranging from sporadic strong/severe storms to no storms at all.

- Storm chances persist through the weekend. Fortunately, most of the precipitation looks concentrated to the overnight hours.

- Heat and humidity continue as high temperatures remain in the 90s through next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Wednesday was a little bit of a preview of what we are expecting to happen today. Heat and humidity pushed into the region sending high temperatures into the 90s with dew points just high enough to make things feel a bit muggy. Outside of our area, isolated supercells in eastern NE and IA dropped 2-3 inch hail under a somewhat similar setup to what we are expecting for today.

Firstly, the temperatures, warm most air continues to flow into the region. The primary axis of southerly flow has veered placing the center of the warm air and moisture transport into our area. This looks to push temperatures into the mid to upper 90s for most. It is not implausible for some areas in far NE KS and NW MO to trifle with 100 degree air temperatures. Enhanced moisture flow raises dew points across the region into the low 70s which will make it feel quite muggy outside. SW winds gusting around 20-25 MPH will make it feel a little more like a blast furnace than a refreshing breeze. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 1 PM through 8 PM tonight. Please be sure to practice heat safety including staying hydrated and checking in on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Secondly, chances for strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday evening continues. The previously mentioned warm and moisture transport creates a very unstable environment aloft. Model guidance continues to suggest CAPE values in excess of 3000-4000 J/kg with some outliers suggesting 5000-6000 J/kg possible. Enhanced by mid level lapse rates in excess of 7-8 C/km creates an incredibly volatile environment. However, the general lack of forcing and a significant CAP could inhibit thunderstorm development. The primary forcing mechanism is a combination of an upper level shortwave combined with convergent high pressures at low to mid levels. This creates a "cold" front that looks to enter into NW MO during the late afternoon/evening hours. This enhances lift and creates a vehicle to overcome the lower level inhibiting factors (such as the CAP). While uncertainties continue, confidence is increasing that if storms form, they will likely grow severe rather quickly dropping large to possibly giant hail (2-4 inches), damaging winds, and heavy rainfall. Convective variables at the lowest levels (0-1km) remain somewhat weak limiting chances for tornadoes.

Expectations for tomorrow are similar to what played out across eastern Nebraska lat night. A large supercell quickly matured dropping 2-3 inch hail and damaging winds before rapidly dissipating after sunset. Model guidance points to a similar chain of events; however, coverage is expected to be a little more expansive across northern MO. Storm mode could vary from none (due to capping), to isolated robust supercells, to large scale strong to severe thunderstorms complexes. Most CAMs point toward the second solution with the NAMnest outlying with the 3rd solution. Where exactly storms develop remains somewhat uncertain as the isolated coverage make it difficult to pinpoint exactly where a storm will form.
Confidence is increasing in initial development across NE MO and storms initiating southwestward along the front. This corroborates with the northern portions of the Enhanced risk outlined by SPC.
Storms then migrate southeastward weakening after sunset. Some thunderstorms may persist on residual elevated instability during the first part of the overnight. Storm should peter out before 1 AM.

Surface high pressure settles in Friday. Originating from the north, this does lower temps and dews Friday sinking values below 90 and 72 degree respectively. A robust shortwave works its way through the area Friday night into Saturday bringing thunderstorm chances during the overnight. Fortunately, this environment looks to be far less tumultuous; however, and isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out. Intermittent storm chances return Saturday afternoon through the overnight persisting into Sunday morning.

Somewhat fitting as the summer solstice approaches, the summer time weather pattern of hot, humid air combined with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms settles in. A strong high pressure over the SE CONUS continues to route hot and humid air into the central CONUS keeping highs int he 90s through the next 7 days. Embedded trough and convergence along the 41st parallel keeps things active which we will certainly take over the seasonal roasting climatically common later in the summer.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected to last until later tonight around 03Z. Until then, winds are expected to remain out the southwest and fairly breezy with gusts up to 20 mph. Conditions are expected to worsen with showers and thunderstorms moving over the area. MVFR ceilings will last until around 12Z. Some areas may experience IFR ceilings, however uncertainties exist with cloud height. VFR conditions are expected to return late tomorrow morning.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004- 011>014-020>023-028>031-037-038-043.
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105.




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Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO,




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