Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 3:09 PM   Moonset 3:52 AM

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FXUS63 KEAX 192356 AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 656 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and below normal temperatures expected through the weekend. Near-freezing temperatures are forecast tonight and Saturday night for far northern Missouri.

- Near normal temperatures return on Monday and continue through the middle of next week.

- Several chances for precipitation arrive next week beginning Monday night.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

As high pressure continues to build into the area from the west, a quiet forecast is expected for the next few days. With the surface high to the west, cooler and drier air from the north is expected to move into the area, keeping temperatures below seasonal averages this weekend. Winds will be fairly weak with the loosened pressure gradient. Tonight there is a potential for near freezing temperatures for the northern parts of Missouri near the Missouri/Iowa/Nebraska border. There is a chance for some minimal localized frost; however, forecast surface winds remain a little too high to expect widespread frost for these areas. Hence, we will not issue a frost advisory for far northern Missouri for tonight. Of a little greater concern is Saturday night into Sunday morning. Winds will be lighter Saturday night, and skies are expected to be mostly clear by late in the night. These conditions are more favorable for slightly colder temperatures, so frost/freeze headlines might be in the cards for this period. However, with near-freezing temperatures tonight and uncertainty in the sky cover and temperature forecast tomorrow night, will hold off on issuing headlines for tomorrow night at this time as well. The attendant weak system that clears skies by Saturday night will keep conditions dry through the end of the weekend.

Monday, winds will shift to the south as shortwave ridging moves in from the west. Corresponding warm advection will give us just enough to return temperatures to daily normals. A stronger northwest-flow system will approach the central Plains by Monday night and Tuesday.
With stronger large-scale lift and improved low-level thermodynamic profiles, chances of precipitation are higher than the preceding system. However, given the source region of the upper system and timing discrepancies among model guidance (e.g., GFS considerably faster than the CMC), kept probabilities of precipitation in the 25 to 50 percent range for the Monday night and Tuesday morning period. Any resulting precipitation will be light (generally under a quarter inch across the CWA). Wednesday, dry conditions return as ridging briefly builds into the area. By Thursday, precipitation chances return as the large-scale pattern changes to a southwest-flow setup, and a series of shortwave troughs move into the region. Pattern recognition suggests potential for severe weather will be increasing at times late next week into the following weekend, with extended model and statistical guidance both indicative of this trend.
High and low temperatures are expected to trend above seasonal averages by the end of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period with generally light northerly winds.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.

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