Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 11:58 AM   Moonset 1:31 AM

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FXUS63 KEAX 151135 AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 635 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return tonight. A few strong storms are possible. Main hazards include hail and gusty winds.

- Additional rounds of precipitation are expected through Friday.

- Nice weather expected for the weekend.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

This morning, fog is expected to develop as temperatures across the area have cooled within 2 degrees of the dew point temperature. A current satellite shot shows clouds moving into our region from the east and the west. The fog is expected to dissipate later this morning with daytime heating. If cloud coverage increases after fog formation limiting heating, the fog may linger into the late morning/early afternoon.

Ridging builds into the area which is expected to keep conditions dry for most of Wednesday after the fog dissipates. Highs temperatures for Wednesday are expected to stay in the low to mid 70s. Wednesday night, an embedded shortwave is anticipated to move through the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will be expected to develop in eastern KS and move to the east. With CAPE values ranging from 500-1,000 J/kg and bulk shear values from 30-40 knots, there is a chance for some isolated strong storms. The main threats associated with these storms will be hail and strong winds. PWAT values remain above 1 inch, which means there may be a potential for concentrated heavy rainfall. This could lead to flash/river flooding if rainfall is long in duration or if storms begin to train over a single location.

Early Friday morning, a trough approaches from the southwest of our area. Additional rounds of showers are expected as it passes over our area. Going into the weekend, conditions are expected to remain dry as ridging builds into the area. High temperatures are expected to remain in the low to mid 80s which should make for a nice weekend.

Extended guidance suggests a persistent pattern with a few more troughs and ridges passing over the area through the start of next week. This will result in more chances for showers and thunderstorms. The main determining factor in thunderstorm development will be the amount of instability. There is a potential for some strong storms if we are able to get warm, moist air from the Gulf. High temperatures are expected to stay around the 80s until the middle of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Fog is affecting the TAF sites to begin the TAF pd reducing vis to 1/4SM-1/2SM with LIFR cigs thru 13Z-14Z. Conds are expected to become VFR 13Z-14Z with bkn clouds btn 3-4kft. Aft 02Z-04Z...thunderstorms are expected to move into the area however, they will be scattered in nature so opted for VCTS until conf increases on storms impacting terminals. Conds will remain VFR however. Winds will be lgt and vrb thru the pd.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.

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Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO,