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FXUS63 KEAX 112144 AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 344 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Discussion
Issued at 344 PM CST MON DEC 11 2023

Key messages:

- Slight chance (15-20%) of light snow across extreme northeast Missouri tomorrow night.

- Otherwise, expect dry conditions and above normal temperatures.

Discussion:

A weak cold front has sagged into the forecast area today in response to a weak upper level shortwave digging through the region.This feature will wash out during the day today providing for relatively light winds. Mostly sunny skies is aiding in highs reaching the mid 40s to lower 50s. Surface high pressure will begin building into the area tonight allowing temperatures to drop back into the mid 20s to lower 30s. The surface ridge will move directly over the area Tuesday providing sunny skies but weak mixing. As such, highs will be a few degrees cooler than today with temperatures reaching the upper 30s north to near 50 south. Tuesday night a vort max will move through southern Iowa into Illinois. This may bring a passing snow shower to northeastern Missouri if dry air can be overcome. Little to no accumulation is expected. Also tuesday night into Wednesday a upper level trough will dig through the central Rockies into the Four Corners region. In response, a downstream upper level ridge will build over the local area.
Although, high pressure will remain in control at the surface, height rises will allow temperatures to rise into the lower 40s to lower 50s on Wednesday. The upper level trough over the Four Corners will continue to dig southeast into Mexico by Thursday further amplifying the upper level ridge over the region. This will allow highs to further rise into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Model solutions have again changed on how they are handling the weekend systems. Yesterday's runs took the New Mexico trough and drove it well south of the area and had a weaker northern stream trough that stayed well north of the area. Today the GFS and EC now track the New Mexico trough further north across Oklahoma bringing precip to the southern CWA. Both models also dig the northern stream upper level trough deeper south across the Upper Midwest bringing precipitation to the northern CWA. The NBM is still not producing POPs for this period but, the chance for light showers may still be possible in the Friday night into Saturday period. Even if precipitation is produced temperatures will be mild enough to support rain with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s expected for Friday and Saturday. In the wake of these features on Sunday, a surface ridge of high pressure is expected to build in the area with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.



Aviation
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST MON DEC 11 2023

VFR conditions are expected to remain through the TAF period.
Westerly winds will slowly shift to a northerly direction by tomorrow morning. Winds are forecasted to range from 5-12 kts for the forecast period.



EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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