Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Prairie Village, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 339 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Overall very quiet conditions prevailed overnight and early this morning across the area, let alone the wider region. Area of surface high pressure, currently centered over NE Missouri, will continue to slowly drift E/SE this morning. Typically, such placement would yield strong diurnal cooling with the existing snowpack, however a layer of mid-level (~800-700mb) cloud deck associated with a passing shortwave trough have put a halt to it across the CWA Many sites initially rapidly cooled yesterday evening with light winds and clear skies, but have since rebounded a handful of degrees with the introduction of said cloud deck. Will put an overall damper on originally forecast lows by a handful of degrees, but doubt many will complain. In fact, that cloud deck, and departure of surface high, also hints at the beginning of a prolonged period of much welcome WAA.

Today, additional warmth will be modest with initial cloud cover and only light southerly flow returning to the area.
Especially as shortwave trough and attendant surface low near the Hudson Bay region push another front across the Plains.
Prior to its passage, expect temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday, predominantly into the upper 20s over the deeper snowpack and the low to mid 30s elsewhere. Tonight, said front will push across Missouri, but air mass will be much more muted in temperature thanks to its more Pacific origin (vs Arctic). In fact, this frontal boundary will move across as a strong WAA/theta-e push and see low to mid level temperatures rising overnight and surface temperatures holding steady or only falling a few degrees over daytime highs. Even with limited mixing potential during the daytime Wednesday over snow areas, temperatures will see a nice bump from previous days. Areas with lesser to no snowpack may see low to mid 40s, while further north and over snowpack mid to upper 30s are most likely. Friday will see an additional boost to temperatures with a conceptually more traditional WAA regime. Upper level pattern takes on a more zonal to weak ridging look through central CONUS with increasing southerly flow in response to SE US surface high and shortwave trough and associated surface low traversing the US- Canadian border. All guidance remains in lock step for an additional boost to temperatures over Thursday, including potential for low to mid 50s over southern areas of the CWA Lingering snowpack will continue to limit peak potential, but the modest southerly flow should allow most (if not all) to hit at least 40. Enjoy it though, as it comes crashing down for the weekend...

By Friday afternoon and evening, the only notable precipitation potential in the forecast will clip the CWA Deterministic guidance remains consistent in the depiction of northern and southern stream shortwaves and timing of their features. Expectation remains for a cold front to drop into Missouri by Friday evening, ushering in another Arctic air mass. Just prior to that, southern stream shortwave will increasing forcing and usher a plume of moisture return up the Mississippi Valley. Location and timing remains eerily consistent in deterministic and ensemble guidance, resulting near zero chances for precipitation over KC Metro/NW Missouri and up to 20-30% chances southern and eastern fringes of the CWA, further increasing south and east. Regardless of the opportunity, all precipitation would fall as rain, limiting any impacts.

At this point, zero doubt whatsoever in the weekend return of Arctic air mass. Broad and longwave troughing will develop over the northern Great Lakes region, placing the region on the cold side of the NW flow regime. Expectation remains for highs plummeting into the teens or colder across the area by Sunday/Monday (>90%). A fair number of ensemble members (~40-50%) continue to signal the potential for highs in the single digits above zero as well.
Lows around to below zero also remain favored, especially by Monday and Tuesday mornings with potential surface ridging in place. At that point, even light/modest winds may push morning wind chills into the teens below zero deg F or colder. Cold Weather headlines could be necessary as a result. This cold appears likely to linger through Tuesday before some moderation in temperatures.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 527 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail across the area today, though there may be an opportunity for some MVFR clouds to build in this morning. MVFR ceilings to reside northward into Nebraska/Iowa and have encroached into northern Missouri at this time. Guidance is a little mixed in potential to build into the TAF sites, with lesser confidence as you work southward across the sites. For the time being, have withheld prevailing MVFR conditions in this issuance, but will continue to monitor for if/when they encroach KSTJ or southward toward KMCI. Otherwise, generally light and variable winds this morning give way to prevailing southwest winds around/under 10kts during daytime, shifting W/NW by around and after 06z.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.