Sunrise 6:24 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 10:23 PM   Moonset 6:40 AM

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FXUS63 KEAX 260513 AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1213 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected to continue from now through Sunday. Some areas may see up to 2 inches of rainfall through Friday morning. High winds possible behind the rain this evening. Gusts to 50-60 mph possible.

- A severe potential exists Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. All hazards are possible including damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes and flooding.

- Multiple rounds of heavy rain may lead to flash flooding and river flooding with most of the focus on Saturday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 357 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Showers due to isentropic ascent and low level forcing are expected linger through the evening. There is a MCV moving through western Missouri bringing showers and thunderstorms that will linger around for the next few hours. High winds approaching 50-60 mph are possible behind the rain as the system moves through the area.

A shortwave trough is expected to enter the Great Plains region Thursday evening into overnight Friday. As winds begin to shift more to the south ahead of the system, return-flow from the Gulf will increase. As the low level jet intensifies, this will increase moisture and warm air advection setting the stage for additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. These showers are not expected to be severe however, there a strong winds with gusty winds and small hail is possible. Multiple rounds of showers are expected through the morning into the afternoon. The best chance for strong to severe weather comes Friday afternoon into the evening.

SPC has our area outlooked in a slight to enhanced risk. The enhanced risk is encompassing the northwest side of a line from Trenton to northern parts of the KC Metro while the majority of the state of Missouri is in a slight risk. With steady return-flow from the Gulf increasing instability, our dew point temperatures will be able to reach the mid 60s in addition to CAPE values ranging from 1,500-2,000 J/kg. As the trough continues to move closer to the area it will become more negatively-tilted showing signs of intensification. Storms will develop in a decently sheared environment, with over 40 knots of effective bulk shear, enhancing storm organization and creating the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Flooding is also a concern with PWATs ranging from 1-1.4 inches and training storms through the weekend.
Limiting factors for Friday storms will be the track of the low.
Latest CAMs suggest the low pushing further north than previous model runs. The timing of the trough will be important as it may move too fast initiating convection earlier and out of sync with the greatest instability. Additionally, Friday's convective activity may be slightly hindered due to the previous rounds of showers through early Friday morning.

Saturday seems to be a better chance for severe weather with the passage of the next system. This system becomes more negatively- tilted as a branch of the jet rounds the base of the trough putting the region in the exit region of the upper level jet creating more upper level divergence and lift. Ahead of this trough there will be significant return-flow from the Gulf allowing the increase for moisture and instability. Compared to Friday's setup, Saturday will be more favorable for severe weather because of the absence of showers before the severe potential allowing day time heating to charge the environment. CAPE values will be allowed to build up to 3,000-3,500 J/kg with low-level lapse rates ranging from 8-10 degrees C/km which will further enhance the lower thermodynamic profile for severe storms. Bulk shear values ranging from 45-50 knots indicate an amply sheared environment which will help with the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and a possible tornado.
Saturday's potential for severe looks to be during the afternoon into the late evening. With PWATs ranging from the 1.25-1.4 flash flooding and river flooding will be a concern especially with the repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

As the trough continues to moves to the northeast, there may be another potential for severe weather Sunday afternoon into the late evening. The threat seems to be to the east of the KC Metro.
Instability and shear will be less than Saturday, but still good enough to initiate and organize thunderstorms. Whether or not the environment will be able to recover from the previous day's storms will be a huge determining factor. As colder, drier air pushes through the area behind the frontal boundary, this may help to counteract the instability which may stifle thunderstorm development for western Missouri.

The extended outlook continues to remain active. Upper level flow orients more zonal; however, embedded shortwaves traversing the CONUS continue to bring shower and thunderstorm chances. Low level flow oscillates between southerly and easterly which overall maintains the inflow of warmer air and moisture keeping temperatures above normal and allowing the chances of convection to persist.
Exact details of the magnitude of prospective storms remains uncertain as the extended outlook will be greatly affected by what occurs in the short term.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are redeveloping in an area of strong ascent that will affect all of eastern KS and western MO through the overnight hours. Have added several hours of prevailing TSRA to account for this. By the early morning hours, this activity is expected to shift to the east of the terminals with decreasing coverage across eastern KS and western MO. Will keep some precip mention going with a VCSH group through the morning into the afternoon. Forecast is fairly uncertain for the afternoon. But it looks like a few thunderstorms will develop within a moderately unstable airmass that develops. Given the uncertainty in coverage and whether storms develop at all, will carry a VCTS mention starting at 22Z. Winds will be easterly to southeasterly overnight and then become southeasterly to southerly through the day Friday. Wind gusts around 30kts are possible during the day Friday, excluding any thunderstorms that may affect the terminals.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.

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