Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rio Grande, NJ

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
For tonight, the center of high pressure starts to move offshore. And given this and that we really haven't a strong front sweep through to flush out all the moisture in the boundary layer, this set up will likely result in more low stratus developing overnight...especially for areas near and N/W of the urban corridor. Winds will be light and continuing to favor a SE to SW direction, but I think the clouds should preclude extensive fog development. Best chance for fog appears to be over south Jersey, especially in the Pine Barrens then extending E/SE towards the coast, so we have the mention of patchy fog in the grids here. Expect overnight lows mostly in the 50s with some upper 40s possible in the southern Poconos.

For Friday, ridging over the area weakens as the next front and an associated upper level disturbance approach from the west.
This should result in a day generally dominated by a fair bit of cloud cover for most areas...initially from the early AM low stratus but then with some mid/high clouds moving in from the west even as the stratus may start to mix out by the afternoon.
There's an outside chance of an isolated light sprinkle or shower reaching our western zones by very late in the day but the prob is low so we kept mentionable POPs out of the grids for now. Generally expect highs in the mid to upper 70s except upper 60s to low 70s across the Pocono Plateau.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A straightforward forecast looks to be on tap for the short term. A cold front looks to cross through the region Friday night with surface high pressure building in behind. Surface high pressure controls the region Saturday into Sunday as it moves eastward with time. Another cold front looks to approach Sunday as a warm front lifts through the region.

Not a whole lot to discuss regarding this straightforward forecast. Some isolated to scattered showers are possible with the cold front moving through Friday night; nothing of significance to note. Guidance remains fairly dry with this cold front, we may only end up seeing a few isolated showers in our northern and northwestern most areas if that. Dry forecast Saturday through Sunday, even with the warm front posed to lift through Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Similar to the short term, a straightforward forecast looks to be on tap for the long term. A cold front is forecast to approach Sunday night and cross through the region during the Sunday night to Monday time frame. Thereafter, surface high pressure builds in from the west, moving slowly eastward with time. Surface high pressure looks to influence the region Monday night through the end of the term.

Guidance remains more supportive of shower potential with this cold front than the one forecast to come through during the short term; scattered to more widespread shower activity looks to be on tap for the region. Mainly chance PoPs Sunday night into Monday morning with some likely PoPs for our northern and northwestern most areas. Monday night and thereafter, a dry forecast is in place with surface high pressure to the west influencing the region. Temperatures right around average to slightly below average anticipated during the majority of the term.

AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Mainly VFR this evening with restrictions possible once again overnight due to low stratus and patchy mist/fog.
Setup appears to generally favor stratus with MVFR cigs but mist/fog possible where there are breaks in clouds. Less chance for stratus and thus more chance for fog/mist at MIV/ACY. Winds light and variable. Low confidence.

Friday...Lingering restrictions possible in the morning through 15Z or so, perhaps as late as 18Z at RDG/ABE with mainly VFR expected by afternoon. SE to south winds generally around 5 knots. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Friday night...Generally VFR. No significant weather anticipated.

Saturday through Sunday...VFR. No significant weather anticipated.

Sunday night...Sub-VFR conditions possible with chance of showers for most sites.

Monday through Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather anticipated.

MARINE
The Small Craft Advisory was expired for all remaining ocean zones. Seas continue to fall below 5 feet, with no headlines expected tonight through Friday.

No Marine headlines through the near term period for the Delaware Bay.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday night...No marine headlines anticipated. Fair weather.

Sunday...SCA flag possible with seas building up to 5 feet.
Fair weather

Sunday night through Monday night...SCA conditions anticipated, seas 5-7 feet. Chance of showers Sunday night into Monday.

Tuesday...No marine headlines anticipated. Fair weather.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
We'll extend the Coastal Flood Advisories out into early Friday morning with the back-bays continuing to experience high water.
The main impacts will just be some street partial or full closures in the same areas as the past few days. Overall, the water levels are trending down slowly, but still high enough (with the most recent high tide) to continue the advisories. The South Bethany Beach and Indian River Delaware gages show the higher levels for Delaware and in New Jersey, the Mantoloking and Bay Shore gages show the high water in Barnegat Bay.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for NJZ020-026.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for DEZ003-004.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.