Centreville, MD Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Centreville, MD

June 13, 2024 5:15 PM EDT (21:15 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:37 AM   Sunset 8:31 PM
Moonrise 11:29 AM   Moonset 12:04 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 133 Pm Edt Thu Jun 13 2024

.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight - .

This afternoon - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.

Fri - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Fri night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Sat - N winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.

Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Sun - SE winds 5 kt - .becoming s. Waves 1 ft or less.

Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 337 Pm Edt Thu Jun 13 2024

Synopsis - A weak low pressure system (invest 90l) will continue to move northeastward away from east central florida into the western atlantic through late week, as a weak front moves into the waters. High pressure is forecast to build over the florida peninsula and the adjacent waters late weekend and into early next week. Scattered showers and lightning storms are expected across the waters each day through early next week.

Gulf stream hazards - None.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday, june 13th.
42 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 28 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 14 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Centreville, MD
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Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 132024 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 424 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
Weak surface high pressure centered offshore will still remain in control through tonight. A cold front crosses our region Friday afternoon into Friday night. High pressure then builds in over the region bring a stretch of dry and increasingly hot conditions that will likely last well into next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A closed low centered across Hudson Bay Canada will gradually shift eastward tonight and especially Friday and Friday night. One of the shortwaves embedded with this trough should amplify some Friday from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. This system will drive a cold front across our area Friday afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, weak surface high pressure centered offshore but extending across our area this afternoon will shift farther away tonight into Friday.
Increased low-level moisture from south to north has resulted in a decent amount of cumulus this afternoon. This is expected to dwindle through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. Sea and bay breezes will also keep temperatures lower closer to the coasts into this evening, and the KDOX radar shows a narrow convergence boundary across Delaware due to flow off the Delaware Bay running into a more south to southwest wind to its west.

A weak shortwave trough is forecast to arrive from the west late this afternoon and this evening. Some guidance, especially the high- resolution ones, show some isolated showers mainly across our western zones that develop off the higher terrain into this evening and again overnight. The forcing is rather weak with this system and the probability of precipitation is so low and therefore opted to keep the forecast dry. An isolated shower however still cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will drop back into the 60s for most areas.

As we go through Friday, an upper-level trough is forecast to arrive in the afternoon and evening. While the parent trough is farther north, the southern portion of it has stronger shortwave energy and is timed during peak heating across our region. At the surface, a cold front will work its way across our region from west to east during the afternoon and evening. Since the stronger winds look to lag to the west of the cold front, the flow is strongest in the upper levels with it weakening in the mid to lower levels, and this all decreases especially in the lower levels the farther south and east across our area. As a result, the stronger shear is positioned across our northern and western zones. There is ample instability forecast to be in place (MLCAPE up to 1500 J/Kg) given air temperatures forecast to be in the 80s with even some lower 90s and dew points in the 60s. The model forecast soundings show a well mixed and warm boundary layer in the afternoon and early evening.
This results in an inverted-V profile in the lower levels and thus increasing the downdraft instability (DCAPE).

Given the flow profiles and incoming frontal forcing, convection is forecast to develop to our northwest and west and then propagate east and southeastward during the afternoon and evening. While coverage and timing does vary some among the guidance suite, convection should organize into a few clusters or a broken line as it shifts into and across our area, with this possibly weakening near and especially south and east of I-95. This will depend on the timing as southerly flow ahead of the convection and front will bring some marine influence into portions of the coastal plain.
Given convection in a cluster or linear mode, locally damaging winds are the main severe weather threat especially with stronger cores aloft (along with some mid level dry air) enhancing the downdraft/downburst potential. Freezing levels look to be on the higher side, however some hail cannot be ruled out with some stronger convective cores. The precipitable water values are forecast to be approaching 2 inches for a time ahead of the cold front, and therefore high rainfall rates should occur with the strongest convection for a time. The flash flooding risk however looks to be low overall as storms should be on the move, however there is a non-zero risk focused across mostly our northern and western zones.

The convection looks to be shifting offshore or weakening during the evening hours with the severe thunderstorm risk ending. Some drier air then starts to arrive from the northwest in the wake of the cold front by later Friday night with at least some partial clearing also starting to arrive.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
High pressure builds in from the north and west on Saturday, ushering a rather tranquil weekend. The high looks to become centered over our region on Sunday before passing offshore Sunday night. Conditions will be dry throughout the weekend with plenty of sunshine to go around. Those who do not enjoy the heat will want to try and get outside this weekend as temperatures will be marginally cooler in the low- mid 80s across most of the region. Upper 70s are expected near the shore and at higher elevations. Nighttime lows are forecast to dip into the mid 50s to right around 60 Saturday night then upper 50s to low 60s Sunday Night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Accompanying the high pressure into the region over the weekend will be a building ridge. Rising heights will be seen across the Mid Atlantic with the mid level ridge dominating through at least the middle of next week. While the center of the surface high pressure looks to be offshore by the start of the long term period, all that does is setup southerly return flow leading to warm temperatures being advected north for several days in a row. Little change has occurred with this latest forecast cycle as global guidance is still rather spread out with just how hot it will get across the region next week. However, that also means that guidance across the board remains consistent with the building high pressure and increasing heat through the week with a high likelihood of temperatures lingering well into the 90s for a number of days. At this point, it is certainly not too early to start thinking about your cooling options for next week. For anyone hoping for temporary relief from precipitation chances, at the moment, chance for this remain rather low. While there are some pieces of shortwave energy tracking through the region during the week, the overall chance for showers is fairly capped (10-20%) due to the very weak forcing from these shortwaves. The relatively higher chances of 15-20% look to come Thursday at the earliest as it is at this point, that some ensemble members begin to show the ridge weakening over our region. However, southwesterly flow looks to remain in place so relief from the heat looks unlikely through Thursday at this time.

AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of this afternoon...VFR. South to southwest winds around 10 knots (south-southeast winds for a time at KACY and KILG). Some local gusts to 20 knots, especially at KACY. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...VFR. South-southwest winds diminishing to near 5 knots, with it becoming light and variable at some terminals. Moderate confidence.

Friday...VFR for much of the time, however some times of sub-VFR conditions later in the afternoon and evening as some showers and thunderstorms move through with a cold front. South to southwest winds around 10 knots, becoming west later in the afternoon at KRDG and KABE. Low confidence on the timing details.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...VFR with no significant weather.

MARINE
Through Friday, the conditions are anticipated to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Southerly winds should be the strongest at times across the northern New Jersey coastal waters and possibly up Delaware Bay. However, given much warmer air moving over the cooler waters, mixing should be more limited and since it looks marginal opted to keep the conditions below advisory criteria. Some showers and thunderstorms should arrive late Friday afternoon and Friday night, and some storms could produce locally gusty winds.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected. Fair weather.

Rip Currents...
On Friday, south winds increase to around 15 mph with 20 to 25 mph gusts. The flow will be a bit more onshore for most of New Jersey as opposed to Delaware. Additionally, guidance shows a 2 ft 9-10 second longer period swell from the SE to SSE developing by the afternoon. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for New Jersey beaches where the coastline is more perpendicular or oblique to the longer period swell. LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the Delaware beaches. Breaking waves will be around 2 to 3 feet.

Winds turn offshore for Saturday, with a LOW risk for rip currents everywhere.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 15 mi45 minS 5.1G9.9 84°F 78°F29.96
CPVM2 17 mi45 min 80°F 72°F
44063 - Annapolis 21 mi27 minS 12G16 76°F 76°F1 ft
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 22 mi45 minSE 6G12 82°F 80°F29.95
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 22 mi15 minSSE 15G16 77°F 29.98
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 27 mi45 minSSE 16G17 81°F
HWPM2 27 mi45 minSSE 12G20
CBCM2 28 mi45 minSSE 13G16 80°F 75°F29.9270°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 31 mi45 minSE 7G12 81°F 73°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 33 mi45 minSSE 8.9G16 83°F 78°F29.99
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 34 mi165 minESE 8.9 82°F 30.0168°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 36 mi45 minESE 5.1G9.9 82°F 78°F29.97
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 39 mi27 minSSE 18G21 73°F 75°F2 ft
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 39 mi45 minSSE 7 88°F 29.9571°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 41 mi45 minSE 20G24 74°F 29.98
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 44 mi45 min 81°F 76°F29.96
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 45 mi45 minSSE 9.9G16 79°F 29.97
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi45 minSSE 16G19 77°F 29.98


Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KESN EASTON/NEWNAM FIELD,MD 17 sm25 minS 1010 smA Few Clouds86°F68°F55%29.96
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KW29
   
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Wind History graph: W29
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Centreville Landing, Corsica River, Chester River, Maryland
   
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Centreville Landing, Corsica River, Chester River, Maryland, Tide feet


Tide / Current for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Thu -- 01:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:47 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:21 AM EDT     -0.42 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:59 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:09 AM EDT     0.57 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:02 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:34 PM EDT     -0.81 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:59 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots
12
am
0.6
1
am
0.5
2
am
0.2
3
am
-0.1
4
am
-0.3
5
am
-0.4
6
am
-0.4
7
am
-0.2
8
am
0
9
am
0.3
10
am
0.5
11
am
0.6
12
pm
0.5
1
pm
0.3
2
pm
0
3
pm
-0.3
4
pm
-0.6
5
pm
-0.8
6
pm
-0.8
7
pm
-0.6
8
pm
-0.4
9
pm
0
10
pm
0.4
11
pm
0.6


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic   
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Dover AFB, DE,




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