NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1240 AM Saturday...

Some valley fog/stratus can be expected early this morning, more likely in and near the mountains.

A surface high pressure system will remain over the area today and tonight, providing dry weather. Afternoon temperatures will be above normal for this time of year.

Some river valley fog will form again Sunday morning, once again more likely in and near the mountains.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 200 AM Saturday...

Starting Sunday temperatures will reach above seasonable in the low 90's across most of the lowlands and mid 70's to mid 80's across the mountains. Heat indices will stay below advisory criteria due to the low dewpoints expected creating a no hazard dry heat. High pressure will back off and allow precipitation chances to enter the area from the west by late Sunday. This activity will be associated with an upper level trough sliding in from west to east throughout the period promoting shower and storm activity, especially during the afternoon and evening.

There is no excessive rainfall threat and any rainfall will be beneficial and we are not expecting too much rain with the most across the southern coal fields, southeast WV and southwest VA where amounts could get up to an inch or more through the period. Due to the overall lack of steering flow and high PWATS we could have some training cells or slow movers that could cause some localized water issue, especially in low lying or flood prone areas.

Temperatures for Monday will fall down to below seasonable for a nice cool down with the lowlands mainly in the low 80's and the mountains in the low to upper 70's.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 200 AM Saturday...

Another day for Tuesday with below average temperatures although only slightly below, however still a nice comfortable day. The area will still be under the influence of the upper level trough. This combined with a low traversing northwest of the area will add to unsettled weather and will possibly have a weak frontal boundary enter the area Tuesday into Wednesday keeping shower and thunderstorm activity on the table. Once the boundary exits Wednesday things area not looking like a total washout, but central guidance does keep PoPs high for precipitation and thunderstorm potential, therefore we can have some diurnal activity but thinking the rest of the time activity will be low.

For Thursday and Friday, models are struggling with bringing another disturbance into the region which may or may not impact the area. With the upper level trough exiting toward the east and upper level ridging building in we may not see too much activity other than diurnal going into the weekend. Therefore accepted a blended model solution for the rest of the extended period which kept us unsettled with higher chances of shower and thunderstorms than previous forecast packages.

We may finally get some beneficial rain as WPC has us in a slight risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday through Thursday where we may see some beneficial rain to try and fight off this drought we are in. Shower or thunderstorm activity will have plenty of moisture to work with along with slow steering which may influence the amount of rainfall we get out of heavy dumpers adding to the QPF amounts which are already up there in forecast amounts for the rest of the period from WPC.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 510 AM Saturday...

After the dense river valley fog burns off, expect a VFR cumulus deck today.

VFR conditions can be expected this evening. Dense river valley fog is expected to develop again tonight, once again mainly in and near the mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog, otherwise high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing fog lifting could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE SAT 07/27/24 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H M L H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H H M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H L L L H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR under river valley fog Sunday morning.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.