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FXUS61 KRLX 300728 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 228 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure brings dry and milder weather today. Showers arrive with a low pressure system Friday. A series of disturbances keep precipitation in the forecast through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 225 AM Thursday...

Dry weather continues through the day, with high level clouds drifting overhead as high pressure remains in control. Meanwhile, southerly flow pulls milder air into the area which will allow temperatures to warm into the 50s for the lowlands and 40s to low 50s in the mountains this afternoon.

Cloud cover is expected to thicken tonight as a low pressure system and associated shortwave shift northeast out of the south central US. Rain chances start spreading east into the CWA late tonight into early Friday morning as moisture increases in response to the approaching system. Temperatures are expected to remain slightly above normal tonight, with lows ranging from around 30 to 40 degrees.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 210 AM Thursday...

A low pressure system to the west will push a band of showers through the region on Friday. This low will move through Ohio then north of the area Friday night and Saturday.

Models still struggling with a southern stream disturbance that may graze our region from the south Saturday into Saturday night. Models are not in good agreement with this system, but more models are indicating it could effect portions of the region than last night, so the probability of precipitation has been increased some.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 215 AM Thursday...

Yet another disturbance on Sunday will provide for a chance of showers across the area. Models are now indicating that this system will be strong enough to push a weak cold front through the area.

Models continue with another disturbance on Monday, and yet another one Tuesday into Tuesday night. Models are in much better agreement with these waves than previous runs. With these disturbances now in the cold air behind the cold front, snow accumulations in the higher elevations of the mountains are possible for both the Monday and Tuesday waves.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 1225 AM Thursday...

VFR is expected to persist through today while mainly high level clouds drift overhead. Cloud cover increases ahead of a system late in the TAF period, though ceilings should remain VFR.

Calm to light southerly flow will increase to around 6-12kts during the day, with a few gusts into the teens possible this afternoon. Light, southerly winds are then expected after 00Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE THU 11/30/23 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in locally heavier showers Friday, especially in the Mid-Ohio Valley and Southeast Ohio. IFR possible in snow in the higher elevations of the mountains Monday afternoon and evening.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

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