Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elizabeth, WV

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 732 PM Thursday...

Seeing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Tri-State Area into Ohio, southern coalfields into the central lowlands of West Virginia, and across the mountains. Most of the lightning activity has died down, except for a stubborn cell across Gallia County. Showers will likely continue moving across the area through the evening as a trough sits overhead though the convective potential will be continuing to decrease through the evening.

As of 200 PM Thursday...

Filtered insolation through thinning high clouds continues to allow cumulus/towering cumulus to blossom for the southwestern half of the forecast area. Expect these clouds to continue to deepen with additional heading with scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms heading into this evening. Tonight, a modest uptick in H850 flow may continue to support elevated shower/thunderstorms heading into Friday morning. While rainfall rates out of this activity is not expected to be very robust, they will be rather slow moving and couldn't rule out some very isolated minor water issues.

Whatever remaining isolated elevated activity remains near daybreak should dissipate into late morning with renewed surface based isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms popping up again by afternoon. Coverage should then increase late Friday afternoon with forcing ahead of a prefrontal trough, and then eventual cold frontal passage overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Given only a modest uptick in flow aloft, not expecting severe weather from any of this activity.

Basin average rainfall amounts should be on the lighter side for the entire event, perhaps 3/4 to 1.5 inches, but given the aforementionedslow storm motions, some isolated, mainly minor high water issues are possible, especially across our far south where some measurable rainfall has occurred over the last 3 days and the green-up is not quite as far along as it is over much of the lowlands.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 1200 PM Thursday...

With frontal boundary north of the area, southwest flow will bring warm and moist airmass into our area, allowing for slow-moving diurnal heat related convection Friday afternoon and evening.
PWATs about 1.4 inches (+2SD from climatology) are indicative of abundant moisture. The passage of an H500 trough may provide enough forcing to produce widespread precipitation into Friday night. WPC maintains most of the area under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

Precipitation should diminish in coverage and intensity overnight Friday. However, a cold front arrives early Saturday morning to bring additional precipitation.

Precipitation will gradually taper off from northwest to southeast as high pressure builds in behind the front Saturday afternoon and evening. Drier conditions are then expected for Saturday night.

For Friday, abundant cloudiness and cooling showers will allow high temperatures to reach the upper 70s across the lowlands, ranging into the upper 50s northeast mountains. Cooler temperatures, closer to normal values, are expected for Saturday behind the cold front, with afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 60s across the lowlands, and raging into the upper 50s northeast mountains.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 1200 PM Thursday...

Strong high pressure builds from the northwest on Sunday, to provide dry weather conditions through Monday. Although near normal temperatures are expected Sunday, plenty of sunshine and weak flow will allow for a warm up Monday.

Guidance is struggling with the arrival of the next cold front late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Accepted general guidance with chance PoPs for now. Winds will become strong and gusty as the front approaches the area on Tuesday.

Temperatures by mid week will highly depend of the passing systems as they provide cloudiness and cooling showers affecting highs and lows.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 727 PM Thursday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening across southern and central WV, KY, OH, and southwest VA. BKW, CRW, and HTS are the sites with more likelihood for this activity before it winds down later this evening, though a few showers will likely linger into Friday as a trough sits overhead. MVFR and IFR restrictions are possible with any showers or thunderstorms. VFR is expected outside of any convective or showery activity.

More showers and thunderstorms, some heavy at times, are expected again tomorrow. Winds will be light and from the south overnight, though a few sites may see winds go completely calm.
Winds shift out of the southwest tomorrow remaining light in speed.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of showers and thunderstorms may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in showers and storms through Saturday.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.