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FXUS61 KRLX 060101 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 801 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
Clipper brings accumulating snow to the mountains tonight into Wednesday, with mainly rain for the lowlands. Building high pressure brings dry/warmer weather Thursday into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 110 PM Tuesday...

Light precipitation will continue to move through the CWA this afternoon as a Clipper system progresses into the Ohio Valley.
Precipitation chances then persist into tonight while the system, and an associated shortwave, track overhead. Mainly rain is expected across the lowlands this afternoon and evening, while the higher elevations of the northeast mountains should experience snow. As temperatures fall overnight into early Wednesday, snow or a rain/snow mix could develop for the lowlands while snow becomes more widespread along the mountains.

The shortwave shifts off to the east on Wednesday, allowing precipitation coverage to gradually wane from west to east throughout the day. Drier conditions are expected to return to the lowlands by Wednesday evening; however, light upslope precipitation may persist along the mountains Wednesday night.

Highest snow accumulations are expected to occur along the mountains, while any accumulations in the lowlands should be minimal. All said, 1 to 3 inches of snow are expected to fall along the mountains, with 4 to 6 inches likely at elevations over 3000 feet.

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 4PM today into tomorrow evening for SE Randolph, NW Pocahontas, and SE Webster counties -- where the greatest snow amounts are expected to fall.

Low temperatures are projected to range from 20s to low 30s overnight. Temperatures remain chilly on Wednesday, with highs expected to be in the upper 30s to low 40s in the lowlands and mid 20s to 30s along the mountains.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

Snow rates will taper off as well as snow coverage which will be confined to the northeast mountains highest elevations during this period. Little additional accumulations (<1/2 inch or less)
will be the likely case going into Thursday morning due to upslope flow. Once the moisture is cut off as the upper level trough slides east any snow will end abruptly. Heights will then rise as a ridge of high pressure moves in from the west paving the way for settled weather.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 1130 AM Tuesday...

A ridge of high pressure holds the weather settled and steady through Saturday morning with temperatures much warmer than previous days. An amplified trough then enters the region from the west and spawns a fairly potent system affecting the area the rest of Saturday and Sunday. Likely rain showers will enter the CWA from the west by Saturday night and spread across to the mountains by Sunday morning. This system will accompany strong winds, especially with cold frontal passage later in the day on Sunday. Strong cold air advection will changeover any rain to all snow Sunday night although by then just chances of precipitation will be leftover going into Monday morning. High pressure once again will build in for the rest of Monday.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 740 PM Tuesday...

Rain showers are currently progressing across much of the area, with some snow showers across the higher mountain elevations.
This trend continues tonight, with a gradual transition to a rain/snow mix across the lowlands, with mainly snow showers during Wednesday morning. Precipitation will gradually diminish northwest to southeast late tonight into Wednesday, with some snow showers lingering across the mountains through the end of the TAF period.

VFR/MVFR CIGs across much of the region currently, will lower into primarily IFR and even some LIFR throughout tonight, then gradually improve to MVFR throughout Wednesday across much of the region, with IFR persisting longest in the mountains. MVFR VSBY restrictions are possible within rain showers, while IFR/LIFR are possible within snow showers.

Calm or light and variable flow this evening will veer to NW/NNW at 5-10 kts by late tonight, then remain as such through the end of the TAF period. Wind gusts of 15-25 kts are possible across the higher terrain during the day on Wednesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of CIG/VSBY restrictions in rain and snow showers may vary from the forecast. Timing of transition from RA to SN may also vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE WED UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M H M M H L H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H M M M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H M M H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
Widespread IFR conditions are not anticipated at this time.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for WVZ522- 523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

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