Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elizabeth, WV
May 18, 2024 1:16 AM EDT (05:16 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:08 AM Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 3:00 PM Moonset 2:42 AM |
FXUS61 KRLX 172324 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 724 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
Gloomy with shower and thunderstorm chances lingering into Sunday. Water issues possible this weekend with slow-moving thunderstorms and showers.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 720 PM Friday...
Showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, are expected to continue progressing northeast across the area as a wave lifts overhead tonight. The current forecast is generally on track this evening, with no significant changes made at this time.
As of 216 PM Friday...
A gloomy end to the work week is underway this afternoon as an upper level wave tracks through the Ohio Valley, progged to arrive over the forecast area heading into the evening/overnight hours. A ribbon of stronger jet stream winds streams up from the southwest may provide enough support, coupled with peeks of sunshine within the canopy of overcast skies already parked overhead, to sprout a few storms during peak heating hours.
Radar trends at the time of writing show mainly stratiform rain passing over the Central Appalachians, but already seeing some breaks in the clouds that could promote convection here shortly.
With increased storm activity possible this afternoon also comes the potential for heavier rainfall rates. Steering flow aloft depicted by forecast soundings under 30kts suggest slow moving activity for this afternoon. Coupled with heavy downpours, this could promote localized instances of flooding to grow possible.
Forecast rainfall amounts remain highest for our forecast office neighbors to our east, but certainly will be something to monitor through the course of the day.
Plethora of low level moisture tonight will maintain widespread clouds overnight tonight, but will gradually attempt to erode from west to east on Saturday. Hi-res CAMs suggest convective activity will be more plentiful for the Mid-Atlantic region and along the spine of the Appalachians Saturday afternoon, but did retain light POPs for the central lowlands as well. Temperatures will once again be dependent on sky conditions for sufficient daytime heating.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 220 PM Friday...
Drier on Sunday with surface high pressure and upper level ridge nudging eastward into the area. Could still see a pop up shower or storm, mainly over the higher terrain during peak heating hours, but most areas should remain dry. Upper ridge will continue to build eastward early next week, with increasing heat and humidity. An isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out early next week, particularly from any passing weak disturbance, or just due to effects of daytime heating, but most of the period should remain dry with little to no development.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1217 PM Friday...
Low pressure will move northeast into Canada in the middle of next week, eventually sweeping a cold front across the area on Thursday, although there is uncertainty in its timing and how far southward the front will move through our area. There could be a strong storm Wednesday or Thursday during this period, with better chances at this point appearing to be across the north/SE Ohio/Mid Ohio Valley region, but confidence in this is low at this point due to uncertainty.
AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 720 PM Friday...
A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings are currently present as showers progress northeast across the area. A wave lifting overhead is expected to sustain showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, through the night. Between lowering ceilings, precipitation, and some fog, sub-VFR conditions are likely to take hold at most terminals overnight. Flight conditions should then gradually improve throughout the day Saturday with showers potentially tapering off to the west late in the TAF period.
Light winds remain variable tonight, then become northerly during the day Saturday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage of precipitation may vary from the forecast overnight and Saturday. Timing of CIG/VIS restrictions tonight may also vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H L L M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H H M M M L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in rain showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 724 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
Gloomy with shower and thunderstorm chances lingering into Sunday. Water issues possible this weekend with slow-moving thunderstorms and showers.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 720 PM Friday...
Showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, are expected to continue progressing northeast across the area as a wave lifts overhead tonight. The current forecast is generally on track this evening, with no significant changes made at this time.
As of 216 PM Friday...
A gloomy end to the work week is underway this afternoon as an upper level wave tracks through the Ohio Valley, progged to arrive over the forecast area heading into the evening/overnight hours. A ribbon of stronger jet stream winds streams up from the southwest may provide enough support, coupled with peeks of sunshine within the canopy of overcast skies already parked overhead, to sprout a few storms during peak heating hours.
Radar trends at the time of writing show mainly stratiform rain passing over the Central Appalachians, but already seeing some breaks in the clouds that could promote convection here shortly.
With increased storm activity possible this afternoon also comes the potential for heavier rainfall rates. Steering flow aloft depicted by forecast soundings under 30kts suggest slow moving activity for this afternoon. Coupled with heavy downpours, this could promote localized instances of flooding to grow possible.
Forecast rainfall amounts remain highest for our forecast office neighbors to our east, but certainly will be something to monitor through the course of the day.
Plethora of low level moisture tonight will maintain widespread clouds overnight tonight, but will gradually attempt to erode from west to east on Saturday. Hi-res CAMs suggest convective activity will be more plentiful for the Mid-Atlantic region and along the spine of the Appalachians Saturday afternoon, but did retain light POPs for the central lowlands as well. Temperatures will once again be dependent on sky conditions for sufficient daytime heating.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 220 PM Friday...
Drier on Sunday with surface high pressure and upper level ridge nudging eastward into the area. Could still see a pop up shower or storm, mainly over the higher terrain during peak heating hours, but most areas should remain dry. Upper ridge will continue to build eastward early next week, with increasing heat and humidity. An isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out early next week, particularly from any passing weak disturbance, or just due to effects of daytime heating, but most of the period should remain dry with little to no development.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1217 PM Friday...
Low pressure will move northeast into Canada in the middle of next week, eventually sweeping a cold front across the area on Thursday, although there is uncertainty in its timing and how far southward the front will move through our area. There could be a strong storm Wednesday or Thursday during this period, with better chances at this point appearing to be across the north/SE Ohio/Mid Ohio Valley region, but confidence in this is low at this point due to uncertainty.
AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 720 PM Friday...
A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings are currently present as showers progress northeast across the area. A wave lifting overhead is expected to sustain showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, through the night. Between lowering ceilings, precipitation, and some fog, sub-VFR conditions are likely to take hold at most terminals overnight. Flight conditions should then gradually improve throughout the day Saturday with showers potentially tapering off to the west late in the TAF period.
Light winds remain variable tonight, then become northerly during the day Saturday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage of precipitation may vary from the forecast overnight and Saturday. Timing of CIG/VIS restrictions tonight may also vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H L L M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H H M M M L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in rain showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPKB MIDOHIO VALLEY RGNL,WV | 22 sm | 12 min | calm | Overcast | 64°F | 63°F | 94% | 29.89 |
Charleston, WV,
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