Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Whitesboro, NJ

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
For today, southwest return flow strengthens across the area ahead of a cold front located to our northwest. This will allow better mixing to occur throughout the day where winds may occasionally gust upwards of 25 mph this afternoon. High temps as a result will be noticeably warmer than recent days with widespread low to mid 90s areawide, with 80s in the Poconos under partly cloudy skies. Dew points will remain oppressive in the mid 70s, although may mix out during the afternoon.
Regardless, another hot and humid day is expected. Heat indicies are largely expected to remain in the 100- 105 degree range outside the higher terrain. As a result, did not make any changes to heat headlines for this afternoon where the Heat Advisory will be in effect beginning at 10 AM this morning.

In regards to the convection threat for this afternoon, forecast guidance has trended downward with respect to the coverage of storms as PoPs are now only in the 20-40% range.
Mid-level lapse rates are expected to weaken throughout the course of the day, despite having some stronger deep layer shear and forcing. So while the coverage of storms may be less than previously thought, damaging wind gusts will still be of concern considering steep low-level lapse rates and moisture loaded downdrafts. SPC has maintained the MARGINAL risk for severe weather today for entire area. PWATs will remain high as well (on the order of 2"), so locally heavy rainfall will remain a possibility, but storms should have more of a forward progression, resulting in a lower threat of flash flooding.

The cold front will then push across the area tonight and move off the coast by early Friday morning. Low temperatures will remain in the 60s/70s, but will finally begin to see dew points fall back to more 'comfortable' levels (relatively speaking)
into the 60s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The weak cold front should settle across the southern most portion of the forecast area early Friday. This will result in a much lower chance of convection on Friday, with 10-20% PoPs for Delmarva and a dry forecast elsewhere. Any activity should be quite isolated in nature, and should not have any notable severe or flash flood threats.

Temperatures and especially dewpoints/humidity will be on the decline for Friday, with dewpoints finally dropping into the 60s across much of the area. Highs mainly in the low to mid 80s to perhaps near 90 degrees near the southern coast. Friday night will be quite pleasant by mid July standards, with dewpoints continuing to fall under a light northerly breeze. Dewpoints in the mid 50s are forecast northwest of I-95! Lows in the 60s to near 70 degrees at the coast and Delmarva as the frontal stalls out across southern Delaware.

Heading into the weekend, Saturday should be a nice summer day with the drier airmass lingering. Highs in the mid 80s and 60s dewpoints. The stalled frontal boundary will begin to start lifting north later in the day. Near and south of the boundary, some isolated showers/storms could develop, but confidence on this is pretty low. There will be some increasing diffluence aloft, but thermodynamically, conditions will not be favorable for any widespread convection during the daytime. If anything does form, we do not anticipate any significant hazards regarding flooding or severe threats.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A wave of low pressure rides the stalled boundary on Saturday night, with some scattered showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder moving through. This should move out by daybreak Sunday, with a lull in precipitation coming for Sunday morning. Chances for convection ramp back up and humidity should increase again for Sunday afternoon as the boundary starts lifting north with return flow and another weak cold front approaches. This will result in potential for some scattered showers and storms Sunday, though temperatures look to be seasonable.

Guidance continues the faster trend with the front and have it clearing the area by Sunday evening, with high pressure moving in from the north into Sunday night. This has resulted in a drier forecast for Monday. As the high pressure shift offshore Tuesday into Wednesday, return flow will redevelop with an increasing temperature and humidity trend, though remaining seasonable for mid July. Some diurnally driven convection chances will return into mid week as well.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Primarily VFR, though brief restrictions possible as scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms develop later this afternoon. Added VCTS groups to KRDG/KABE/KTTN for a few hours this afternoon, with lesser chances at other terminals, where thunder was left out of the TAFs. 30-40% chance of SHRA/TSRA at KRDG/KTTN/KABE and 15-25% elsewhere. Winds out of the southwest 10-15 kt gusting 20-25 kt. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...VFR with decreasing clouds. Southwest winds gradually becoming northwest overnight around 5-10 kt following frontal passage. High confidence.

Friday...VFR. Northwest winds 5-10 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday Night...VFR. No significant weather.

Saturday through Saturday Night...Primarily VFR through the day but restrictions possible late Saturday and into Saturday Night (50-70%) with showers and thunderstorms moving through.

Sunday through Sunday Night...Primarily VFR but restrictions possible (40-50%) with showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon.

Monday...Primarily VFR.

MARINE
No marine headlines are in effect through tonight. Southwest winds around 10-20 kt with occasional gusts up to 23 kt are possible through this afternoon. Winds will gradually shift to a more northwesterly component overnight tonight in wake of cold front. Seas around 3-4 feet.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible through this afternoon which may cause localized wind gusts in excess of 34 kt.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday...No marine headlines expected. Periods of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the late afternoon and evening Saturday and Sunday.

Rip Currents...

For today, southwest winds increase to 15-25 mph with breaking waves around 1-3 feet and a building southerly 3-4 foot swell around 6-7 seconds. As a result, have upgraded Cape May and Atlantic County beaches to MODERATE due to more perpendicular swell and have maintained a LOW risk for rip currents for the remainder of the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

For Friday, northwest winds around 5-10 mph with breaking waves around 1-2 feet and a southerly 2 foot swell around 6-7 seconds.
As a result, have maintained a LOW risk for rip currents at all beaches.

Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers and the speed of the currents are generally maximized at low tides.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ060>062-070- 071-101>106.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ001-007>010- 012>027.
DE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001>004.
MD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ012-015-019- 020.
MARINE...None.