Thursday, April2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cape St. Claire, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 7:32PM Thursday April 2, 2020 2:39 PM EDT (18:39 UTC) Moonrise 12:09PMMoonset 2:25AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 139 Pm Edt Thu Apr 2 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
This afternoon..NW winds 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 139 Pm Edt Thu Apr 2 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will loop over the northwestern atlantic ocean through Friday. High pressure will gradually build in from the midwest through the weekend. A cold front will follow Sunday night, then stall nearby before returning north as a warm front early next week. Small craft advisories may need to be extended into Friday evening for portions of the waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cape St. Claire CDP, MD
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location: 39.09, -76.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 021704 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 104 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

SYNOPSIS. An ocean storm will continue to churn offshore of the mid-Atlantic through Friday. That storm will finally move out to sea by Saturday as high pressure builds in for the weekend. A weak cold front will move through Sunday night or early Monday, with weak high pressure then building in for Monday. One or two frontal systems then may affect the region heading into the midweek period.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 12:30 pm update . Few changes to the forecast as breezy northwest winds continue and the coastal low continues to churn to our north and east. A few mid-level cumulus clouds will develop into the afternoon and fill in as the we move into the evening from northeast to southwest as the aforementioned low retrogrades westward.

9:30 am update . Adjusted temperatures and dew points to account for morning trends. Winds are beginning to gust currently and thus, adjusted timing in minor detail to account for this. Otherwise, no significant changes to note. This is the most sunshine we have seen in what feels like ages, so enjoy before clouds retreat back into the region late this afternoon and evening from the northeast.

The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will be caught in between two systems today: surface high pressure building over the Great Lakes and surface low pressure approximately 400 miles southeast of Nantucket Island. Meanwhile, a deep upper trough lies over much of the Northeast and western Atlantic Ocean, with a weak H5 low over eastern Lake Ontario. Several strong shortwaves will rotate around this low and through the local forecast area today.

Surface high pressure builds east today. Meanwhile, the oceanic low will lift to the north, then retrograde back a bit towards the mainland, and should be approximately 325 miles due east of nantucket Island. A tight northwest pressure gradient develops over the area, and with a 30-40 kt LLJ passing through the region, will have gusty winds developing throughout the day, generally starting out at 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph, increasing as high as 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph in the afternoon. Winds will remain below Wind Advisory criteria.

Skies start off sunny, but clouds will develop as shortwaves pass through the region, and then clouds associated with the offshore low will rotate back towards northern New Jersey and the southern Poconos.

Highs today will be right around normal, generally in the 40s in the southern Poconos, and otherwise in the low to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/. The coastal low continues to retrograde back towards the mainland tonight, and should be about 180 miles east of Nantucket Island late in the overnight period.

Winds diminish after sunset, but remain elevated through the overnight at around 15 mph with 20-25 mph gusts.

Waves of light rain will rotate back towards northeast New Jersey and the southern Poconos starting this evening and continuing through the overnight. Not much QPF expected, generally a few hundredths of an inch or so.

Lows tonight generally in the mid 30s in the southern Poconos, otherwise in the upper 30s to low 40s north of the Fall Line and in the lower 40s across southeast Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delmarva.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Overview .

Some gradual changes for the end of this week and the beginning of next as the blocking pattern that has been in place slowly breaks down. A West Coast trough (-PNA in place) will be a prominent feature in the days ahead, and consequently can expect a rebuild/reload of ridging over the Southeast, similar to what we have dealt with much of the past few months. We will finally rid ourselves of the large and powerful offshore storm system which has been lurking nearby, though it will take until Saturday for it to pull away in earnest. In terms of the sensible weather, the result of all this will be a gradual warming trend heading into the weekend and the start of next week, though no particularly anomalous warmth is expected. Some light rain associated with the ocean storm is possible on Friday before we dry out for the weekend. As the blocking pattern eases up and the atmospheric wheels begin to turn a little quicker, our precipitation chances should start to increase, but it looks like it won't be until early to mid next week that we see better chances of more widespread rain.

Dailies .

Friday-Friday night . The offshore ocean storm will retrograde southwestward beneath the influence of strong higher latitude blocking. As it does so, its long moisture fetch will try to throw some rain back into the region. Overall, Friday does not look like a great day especially in the eastern half of the area. Lots of clouds and probably some spotty light showers especially towards the coast. Much of the guidance looks suspiciously warm for a mostly overcast day. Went a little on the cooler side especially towards the coast, with highs mostly in the mid 50s. We should dry out overnight with winds also decreasing overnight after a breezy daytime period as the storm gradually shifts back off further to the east.

Saturday-Saturday night . The weakening ocean storm finally pulls away out to sea on Saturday. So it should be a dry day, though there are questions as to cloud cover extent. Likely to still be some leftover moisture in the lower levels especially with winds turning more easterly, albeit light. So may still be mostly cloudy especially through the morning, but better chances of more sunshine developing later in the day. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.

Sunday-Sunday night . A very weak cold front starts to approach during this time, associated with weak low pressure over Ontario. Ahead of it, should be a nice day Sunday with some WAA in developing light southwesterly flow. Most areas will return to the 60s for highs. Clouds will increase as the front slowly approaches, with a frontal passage likely overnight. With such weak forcing and unfavorable diurnal timing, expect very little fanfare with this front. Maybe just a few light showers overnight.

Monday-Wednesday . As mentioned above, the pattern starts to turn more progressive here. Southeast ridging becomes more prominent during this time, with the ridge axis centered several hundred miles to our west. Temperatures should run a few degrees above average, mainly in the mid to upper 60s with maybe some 70 degree readings towards Delmarva. Precipitation chances are a bit unclear. Behind the weak frontal passage Sunday night, Monday has a good chance to stay dry with weak high pressure building in out of the Great Lakes. Beyond then, rain chances may increase as a couple pieces of shortwave energy get entrained into the ridge, but low confidence as to the timing and evolution. Went with a very generic and non- committal forecast of chc and slgt chc PoPs for now which will be narrowed down as this comes into clearer view.

AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR with clear skies early on with SCT-BKN CIGs around 15000 ft developing in the afternoon. NW winds around 10 kt, increasing to 15-20 kt with 25-30 kt gusts late this morning and through the afternoon. A few gusts to 35 kt possible at KPNE- KPHL-KILG. High confidence.

Tonight . VFR. CIGs lowering to 5000-7000 ft through the overnight. NW winds lowering to 10-15 kt with 20-25 kt gusts. High confidence.

Outlook .

Friday-Friday night . Mainly MVFR conditions expected, especially near and east of PHL. Rain showers possible. Slow improvement to VFR possible overnight especially near and west of PHL. North-northwest winds of 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt during the day. Overnight, winds becoming northerly or north-northeasterly at 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Saturday-Saturday night . Mainly VFR, though lingering MVFR is possible early. Northeast winds of 5 to 10 kt becoming light and variable for the evening and overnight. High confidence.

Sunday-Sunday night . Mainly VFR. Localized MVFR ceilings possible overnight along with a slight chance of showers. Southwest wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming more westerly late Sunday night. Moderate confidence.

Monday-Monday night . Mainly VFR. Light westerly or southwesterly winds becoming light and variable overnight. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. A tight NW pressure gradient will develop on the waters today, and SCA conditions will be in place through tonight. NW winds will range from 15-20 kt with 25-30 kt gusts on the Atlantic Coastal waters and Delaware Bay. A few gusts to 35 kt are possible at the mouth of Delaware Bay and the Delaware and southern New Jersey Atlantic coastal waters late this afternoon, but do not think gusts will be frequent enough nor widespread enough to warrant a Gale Warning.

Strong winds and rough seas continue through tonight.

Outlook .

Friday-Sunday night . A prolonged period of continued SCA conditions is expected on the Atlantic coastal waters. North- northwesterly winds could gust 25 to 30 kt on Friday, especially early. Beyond then, winds will decrease with gusts no greater than 20 kt through the remainder of this period, so SCA flags will be able to come down for Delaware Bay. However, seas on the ocean will be very slow to subside thanks to a large offshore storm slowly departing the area. Seas will run 5 to 9 ft through the period, slowly diminishing towards Sunday and Sunday night.

Monday . Conditions look to finally return to sub-SCA levels with seas 3 to 4 ft and light winds.

FIRE WEATHER. A tight pressure gradient will develop over the area today between high pressure building in from the west and low pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean. Northwest winds will range from 15-25 mph with 25-35 mph gusts across the region. However, min RH values will range from 35-40 percent across the region, and there has been rain across the region over the last week or so.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A large and powerful ocean storm will continue to churn offshore of the region through Friday before it finally starts to move away on Saturday. As it sits offshore it will gradually pile water up along the coast. We will also begin to draw closer to the April 7 full moon. This combination is likely to lead to coastal flooding for the end of the week, especiallly with the Saturday morning high tide cycle. Widespread, advisory level minor flooding appears likely on the oceanfront with that cycle. There is potential for a few areas to reach moderate flood stage especially in coastal southern New Jersey and coastal Delaware, though currently that looks like it would be more the exception than the rule. Coastal interests are encouraged to continue monitoring the tidal forecast over the next few days.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . Davis/O'Brien Near Term . MPS Short Term . MPS Long Term . O'Brien Aviation . Davis/MPS/O'Brien Marine . Davis/MPS/O'Brien Fire Weather . Tides/Coastal Flooding .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 7 mi232 min 51°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 10 mi238 min 52°F 1011.4 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 10 mi238 min NW 17 G 20 49°F 51°F1011.9 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 13 mi232 min NW 20 G 24 50°F 1011.1 hPa
FSNM2 13 mi250 min NW 24 G 29 49°F 1011.1 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi220 min WNW 19 G 24 51°F 50°F1012.5 hPa (-1.1)22°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 17 mi232 min N 12 G 21 51°F 51°F1011.4 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 29 mi310 min NW 7 1013 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 37 mi226 min NNW 19 G 21 50°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 39 mi232 min WNW 17 G 21 50°F 53°F1011.4 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi232 min NW 7 G 15 52°F 55°F1013.3 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 42 mi232 min NW 12 G 18 49°F 51°F1010.8 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi262 min NW 18 G 24 1012.7 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD8 mi55 minNNW 13 G 2010.00 miPartly Cloudy57°F33°F41%1009.5 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD10 mi46 minNW 15 G 2610.00 miA Few Clouds57°F30°F36%1009.5 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD18 mi46 minWNW 22 G 2910.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy59°F30°F34%1009.5 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD18 mi46 minNW 18 G 2610.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy60°F27°F28%1009 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD19 mi46 minno data mi59°F26°F28%1009.8 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD22 mi55 minWNW 19 G 2810.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy57°F28°F33%1010.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBWI

Wind History from BWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7N65N8NW4W4W3CalmNW46N7N5NW6W8W7W8W9W9W12NW13
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1 day agoE14E10E13E10E10--E12
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2 days agoW9W7N14
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Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore (Chesapeake Bay), Maryland
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Baltimore (Chesapeake Bay)
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:05 AM EDT     4.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:32 AM EDT     4.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:32 PM EDT     5.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:54 PM EDT     4.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.64.84.84.84.64.54.34.24.24.34.54.755.25.35.35.254.84.64.54.34.34.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:18 AM EDT     0.32 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:48 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:43 AM EDT     -0.41 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:19 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:09 PM EDT     0.84 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:39 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:01 PM EDT     -0.79 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:42 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.30.30.2-0-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.10.20.50.70.80.80.60.2-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.