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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 1233 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from midnight est tonight through Tuesday morning...
This afternoon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Scattered showers.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 1233 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
low pressure will pass well south of the waters through tonight. A clipper system will cross the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure will build over the region Thursday through Friday night. Small craft advisories are likely Wednesday into Thursday morning.

FXUS61 KPHI 041726 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1226 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure across New England will move offshore today. High pressure builds in for tonight and remains through Tuesday. A weak system moves to the south Wednesday. More high pressure arrives for the end of the week and into Saturday. A deep low pressure system may move west of the region Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Partly to mostly cloudy skies have taken over as a mid-level trough approaches. Additionally, some deeper low to mid- level moisture farther north with colder air advecting in on west- northwest winds has brought some stratocumulus farther southeast from the Appalachians toward the Fall Line. HRRR suggests that maybe a brief rain or snow (or graupel) shower may reach Carbon/Monroe/Sussex NJ vicinity late this afternoon or early this evening. That probably won't amount to 'measurable' precipitation, and is not mentioned in the forecast, but don't be surprised up there. Elsewhere, our region will see a dry day with highs in the upper 40s/low 50s. That will be accompanied by an occasionally gusty westerly breeze.

In the wake of the trough, skies will clear tonight outside of the Poconos and perhaps the Lehigh Valley vicinity. The drier air and breeze along with lower dewpoints advecting in today will help limit dry the ground and boundary layer moisture. Still, expect some valleys in southeastern PA and north/central NJ, as well as the Pine Barrens and interior Delmarva to see some patchy fog overnight toward Tuesday morning. Lows should drop near or below freezing outside of Philly and the immediate coast.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A broad H5 trough will settle across our area Tue/Wed before moving away later this week. This will bring a return to more seasonable temperatures for early December. Highs both days will be a couple degrees below normal with low/mid 40s for most areas (30s for the southern Poconos and north NJ). Lows will favor the 30s Tue night and 20s Wed night.

While high pressure will be across the area much of the time, a weak upper feature will accompany the upper trough moving just south of the area Tue night/Wed morning. We have some slight chance pops for Delmarva/south NJ/metro Philadelphia for those periods. Depending on when the precip occurs, light rain or light snow could be the ptype.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The upper pattern will start the long term with a subtle trough exiting to the NE while a ridge begins to build over the Middle Atlantic.
This ridge continues to build before moving away Saturday. Another trough strengthens and heads up the Ohio Valley towards the end of next weekend. These features will overall provide a dry forecast for Thu/Fri/Sat but then rains will arrive Sat night and remain into Sunday. Although it's still several days away, most op models are showing a potent surface low moving from the Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes next weekend. This could bring showery and breezy conditions ahead of the cold front late next weekend.

Temperatures will continue (from the short term) to be below normal with Thursday (likely) being the coldest day of the week. After that, warm advection will kick in with slightly above normal temps for Friday and much above normal readings for next weekend. Highs in the upper 50s/low 60s could be around for next weekend if a deep southerly flow develops over the region.

AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. Some broken CIGs around 040 spreading down from the Appalachians to ABE/RDG today, perhaps reaching TTN this afternoon, otherwise ceilings at most TAF sites including PHL will be above 10K ft. Westerly winds around 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt through the early evening. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. West/northwest winds around 5-8 kt. Some patchy fog possible in valleys/sheltered areas, though the TAF sites should steer clear of any fog/reduced visibilities. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday...VFR. Northwest winds around 5-10 kt. Periods of mid to high level cloud cover passing, but CIGs will stay at 5k feet or greater.

Outlook...

Tue night/Wed... Mostly VFR. Clouds and a few light showers possible for Delaware and srn NJ.

Wed night/Thu/Fri.... VFR expected.

MARINE
No marine headlines are up as the Small Craft Advisory has expired. For the rest of today, westerly winds will be around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Tonight winds pick up slightly once again to 15 to 20 kt. Another short- lived marginal SCA may be issued if gusts to 25 kt develop. Seas 3 to 4 feet.

Outlook

Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions for Tue/Tue night.
After that, gusty N to NW winds will be low-end SCA levels for Wed/Wed night. A return to sub-SCA is expected Thu and into Fri.
Fair weather thru the period, except for a few scattered showers Tue night into Wed.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Onshore flow is causing some tidal piling to occur across the region. As a result, back bays are currently seeing some spotty minor coastal flooding. Back bays may be slow to drain going forwards; some minor coastal flooding during the next two high tide cycles remains possible, particularly for back bays.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Baltimore (Chesapeake Bay)
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:27 AM EST     4.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:46 AM EST     4.71 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:33 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:27 PM EST     4.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Baltimore (Chesapeake Bay), Maryland, Tide feet

Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:42 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:15 AM EST     -0.86 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:50 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:50 AM EST     0.62 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:33 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:11 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:43 PM EST     -0.39 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:16 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:31 PM EST     0.58 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots

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