Friday, July3, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Shore, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:37PM Friday July 3, 2020 11:08 PM EDT (03:08 UTC) Moonrise 6:25PMMoonset 3:10AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 1037 Pm Edt Fri Jul 3 2020
Rest of tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers with isolated tstms late this evening, then isolated showers.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1037 Pm Edt Fri Jul 3 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A weak backdoor cold front will approach the waters from new england on Saturday, stalling nearby Sunday, before dissipating on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Shore, MD
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location: 39.1, -76.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 040123 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 923 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak backdoor cold front will sink southwestward from New England on Independence Day, nearing the region Saturday night into Sunday, before dissipating early next week. High pressure returns thereafter with hot and humid conditions persisting.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. Main forcing from shortwave trough is across eastern PA, NJ, Long Island as of mid evening. Weak convection trails back to Adams County. This convection should continue to weaken with loss of diurnal heating, moving into a less favorable environment, and outflow that appears to be racing ahead of it. With that said, some showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will remain possible across Carroll, Baltimore, and Harford Counties through midnight or so.

Otherwise, satellite indicates some mid/high clouds will pass overhead tonight, and some lower clouds may try to sneak into metro Baltimore late tonight with the approach of a backdoor front. A few patches of fog may develop, but low levels are not saturated, so fog should not be common. Low temperatures will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s, about 5-10 degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Weak low pressure will be sitting offshore on Saturday while backdoor cold front and mid level shortwave drops into our area. Flow will become more easterly through the day Saturday increasing moisture advection. Latest models show CAPE values between 1000 and 2000 J/kg, and shear near 20 knots. All these along with diurnal heating will allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over our area in the afternoon and evening, with highest instability between Central Virginia and southern Maryland. Main initiators appear to be the bay breeze and terrain. Did up PoPs a little in some areas after reviewing 18Z guidance, including along I-95 from DC southward, where there is good model agreement of storm initiation. Most storms should rapidly diminish during the evening, hanging on the longest across the southern Shenandoah Valley and central Virginia, coincident with the remaining forcing.

High temperatures on Saturday will reach the upper 80s and 90s across our area and dew points will be between the mid 60s and low 70s. Highest heat index values will reach mid to upper 90s mainly over areas east of the Blue Ridge, DC and south of it. Drier conditions expected Saturday night, with a few lingering showers possible with low temperatures in the 60s and 70s.

On Sunday the front will be weakening just to our south as high pressure is centered to our north. With some instability, the boundary lingering nearby, diurnal heating, could see an isolated to scattered shower and/or thunderstorm, especially over higher terrain. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s with heat index values reaching the upper 90s on some locations. Dry conditions over most of our area on Sunday night, with maybe a lingering shower over central VA.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The long term features a fairly summer-like pattern, which is to be expected now that we're in July. Overall, an upper level ridge will dominate the region. However, several models are indicating a weak upper low embedded within the ridge slowly heading north from the Gulf Coast to the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys, and then northeast from there, eventually reaching our vicinity towards the end of the week. With the ridge, albeit weak, in place much of the week, temps Monday thru Wednesday should run in the low-mid 90s, a bit above normal for this time of year but not excessive. Isolated mountain convection is possible all three days, but the metros are more likely to stay dry. By Thursday as the upper low approaches, the risk of showers and t-storms will increase region wide, and temps are more likely to stay in the 80s as the clouds and precip potential builds.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Remnant convection may affect MTN or vicinity around 02-03Z this evening. Late tonight into Saturday morning, some guidance indicates MVFR clouds nearing MTN/BWI as a backdoor front approaches. At this time, confidence is less than 50%, so have just included a SCT group. VFR/light winds expected at the rest of the terminals.

With the backdoor front and a weak disturbance crossing Saturday, isolated to widely scattered convection is expected to develop between 17-19Z, tapering off after 23Z (perhaps a bit later INVOF CHO). Enough uncertainty and low coverage at the moment that I left any mention out of the TAFs, though certainly may be able to hone in on this in future issuances.

For Saturday night, there's a better model signal for fog or low clouds, especially MRB, IAD, and CHO.

For Sunday afternoon/evening isolated to scattered convection is also possible, especially near CHO.

VFR with minimal if any impacts to aviation Monday and Tuesday under high pressure.

MARINE. Remnant convection, or its gust front, may affect the Chesapeake Bay north from the Patapsco River late this evening, though gusts should be brief and less than 30 knots. Otherwise, winds are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Sunday night. However, short periods of gusts near criteria are possible and may be able to cover those with a Marine Weather Statement if needed. Also, isolated thunderstorms could trigger a few Special Marine Warnings, especially Saturday afternoon/early evening. For Sunday, thunderstorm chances are smaller.

Light winds over the waters Monday and Tuesday with minimal t-storm risks.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . IMR NEAR TERM . ADS SHORT TERM . ADS/IMR LONG TERM . RCM AVIATION . ADS/IMR/RCM MARINE . ADS/IMR/RCM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 8 mi69 min W 2.9 G 2.9 84°F 85°F1009.8 hPa (+0.8)
CPVM2 8 mi69 min 87°F 69°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 9 mi69 min W 6 G 7 87°F 1010 hPa (+0.8)
FSNM2 9 mi75 min W 8.9 G 9.9 88°F 1010.3 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 13 mi69 min NNW 4.1 G 6 89°F 77°F1009.7 hPa (+0.8)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 13 mi69 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 85°F 85°F1010.2 hPa (+0.6)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi69 min WSW 6 G 6 86°F 81°F1011.2 hPa (+0.6)71°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 26 mi159 min SSW 1 1009 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 34 mi69 min Calm G 1.9 86°F 84°F1010.9 hPa (+0.8)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi45 min W 7.8 G 7.8 84°F 82°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi69 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 85°F 85°F1010.5 hPa (+0.9)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi69 min N 4.1 G 6 83°F 84°F1010.7 hPa (+1.4)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi69 min WSW 8 G 11 1011.1 hPa (+0.8)

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi75 minN 09.00 miFair83°F73°F72%1010.3 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD11 mi94 minW 410.00 miFair84°F73°F70%1010.2 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD13 mi75 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F69°F65%1010.1 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD17 mi75 minN 010.00 miClear88°F68°F52%1010.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNAK

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW4W3W3W3NW3CalmNW4NW6NW6NW6NW5NW3N3NW4SE8SE7533NW3N3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmNW3CalmN3CalmCalmNW5NW6N8N8N93CalmCalm3CalmCalmSE6W4NW3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW4N9SW3NW3NW10
G16
CalmCalmCalmNE3N5N5NE6N5N3SE4SE11SE9SW6CalmS33CalmNE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Cornfield Creek, Magothy River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:09 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:01 AM EDT     1.31 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:38 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:56 AM EDT     -1.11 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:45 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:57 PM EDT     0.44 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:17 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:20 PM EDT     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.10.40.91.21.31.20.90.4-0.2-0.7-1-1.1-1-0.7-0.30.10.40.40.30.1-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.