Friday, July19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Shore, MD

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Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 8:30PM Friday July 19, 2019 12:38 AM EDT (04:38 UTC) Moonrise 9:27PMMoonset 7:19AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 1035 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Rest of tonight..W winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Scattered showers and tstms late this evening.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1035 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. The remnants of barry will move into the western atlantic through tonight. High pressure will build over the southeastern states for Friday into the weekend. A cold front will approach the waters from the great lakes and pennsylvania Sunday night, and cross the waters early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Shore, MD
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location: 39.1, -76.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 190132
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
932 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
An upper level disturbance will move into the western atlantic
overnight. High pressure will build over the southeastern
united states Friday through the weekend. A cold front
approaching from the great lakes and pennsylvania will cross the
region early next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
A couple of thunderstorms, producing wind gusts over 35 mph, are
near the tidal potomac and over the central chesapeake bay.

These storms are weakening as they move east. A few showers
could linger overnight over our southeastern zones; otherwise,
it will be a dry and muggy night. Lows will only fall into the
70s. Some patchy fog is possible.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Saturday night
A heat advisory remains in effect for Friday between 11am and
9pm. Some heat indices will reach or get close to heat warning
criteria. As further guidance arrives, we will evaluate these
possible headlines for the weekend. A building ridge of high
pressure will make that the primary concern, as 850 temps rise
to 22-24c. Think that subsidence will mostly prevent storms from
developing, but could not rule out a stray shower thunderstorm
from breaking the cap. Do not have confidence in placement or
timing, so will be silent on that risk for now.

While the entire period looks hot, Saturday may be the day of
greater concern, without the benefit of any real relief at
night.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
High pressure will shift off the coast as a warm front moves through
our region Sunday. This will place our region in the warm
sector ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. This
will lead to another hot day with daytime temperatures hovering
in the upper 90s to low 100s. These high temperatures will
combine with dew point temperatures in the mid to upper 60s and
lower 70s to create another day of dangerous heat indexes for
most of our region. This means that heat advisories will likely
be needed with possibly a excessive heat warning. Thunderstorms
and showers will be a concern again during the day due to high
cape. The better chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
later in the day Sunday and into Monday as the cold front
approaches and moves through our region. The models have been
trending quicker with this frontal passage. This has led to the
main threat becoming more flood based compared to severe due to
the frontal timing. If the front moves through later on Monday,
the risk for severe weather could increase but there remains a
lot of uncertainty at this time. The biggest message will be
that there will be threat for thunderstorms and showers late
Sunday into Monday with an isolated threat for flood and severe
weather.

The cold front is expected to move through our region by late Monday
and into early Tuesday. The models have been hinting that the
boundary may stall over our southern parts of our CWA or just south
of our cwa. This would lead to continued chances for showers into
Tuesday. Again there remains a lot of uncertainty on this solution.

There is good agreement that Tuesday into Wednesday will be much
cooler in the low to mid 80s with dew points in the 50s. High
pressure will build back into our region for Wednesday.

Aviation 02z Friday through Tuesday
MainlyVFR expected through Saturday night. One exception would
be possible fog overnight tonight. Best time for any fog is between
8-12z near outlying terminals or in areas that receive rain
this afternoon. The thunderstorm threat is slim to none for
Friday and Saturday.

Skies will be mostly clear with some scattered cloud cover. It will
continue to be hot and humid with heat indexes above 105 and
possibly 110.VFR conditions expected for most of the day Sunday at
this time.

Clouds will increase Sunday evening through Monday as a cold front
moves through our region. Thunderstorms and showers will be
possible. Subvfr conditions will be possible.

Marine
Winds will remain light overnight through Saturday.

Hot humid conditions expected Sunday and Monday with a southerly
flow. Small craft advisories may be needed.

Climate
The record daily warm low temperature for iad for july 18th is
74 degrees, set in 2005 and 1969.

As a reference, here are the warm temperature records for
Friday through this weekend:
record daily high temperatures
jul 19 jul 20 jul 21
dca 102 (1930) 106 (1930) 104 (1926)
bwi 103 (1930) 102 (1930) 104 (1930)
iad 98 (1977) 101 (1980) 101 (1991)
record daily warm low temperatures
jul 19 jul 20 jul 21
dca 81 (1930) 82 (2015) 82 (1987)
bwi 80 (1942) 80 (1930) 83 (1930)
iad 77 (2013) 75 (2015) 77 (1987)
highest july temperatures
highest MAX warmest low
dca 106 (7 20 1930) 84 (7 24 2011, 7 23 2011, 7 16 1983)
bwi 107 (7 10 1936) 83 (7 21 1930)
iad 105 (7 22 2011) 78 (7 24 2010, 7 8 2010)
all-time highest temperatures
highest MAX warmest low
dca 106 (7 20 1930, 8 6 1918) 84 (7 24 2011, 7 23 2011, 7 16 1983)
bwi 107 (7 10 1936) 83 (8 5 1930, 7 21 1930, 6 6 1925)
iad 105 (7 22 2011) 79 (8 8 2007)
longest stretches of consecutive days with high temperatures at or
over 100 degrees at iad:
2 (7 7-8 2012, 7 21-22 2011, 7 6-7 2010, 8 16-17 1997, 7 16-17 1988
and 7 20-21 1980)
longest stretch of consecutive days with low temperatures at or over
80 degrees at dca:
5 (7 16-20 2013)
longest stretch of consecutive days with low temperatures at or over
80 degrees at bwi:
4 (8 8-11 1900)
temperature records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca) since
1941. Additional temperature records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1872.

Temperature records for the baltimore md area have been kept at what
is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall airport
(bwi) since 1950. Additional temperature records observed downtown
extend the period of record back to 1872.

Temperature records for the sterling dulles va area have been kept
at what is now washington dulles international airport (iad) since
1960.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Heat advisory from 11 am to 9 pm edt Friday for dcz001.

Excessive heat watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for dcz001.

Excessive heat watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
evening for dcz001.

Md... Heat advisory from 11 am to 9 pm edt Friday for mdz003>006-011-
013-014-016>018-502>508.

Excessive heat watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for mdz003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.

Excessive heat watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
evening for mdz003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.

Va... Heat advisory from 11 am to 9 pm edt Friday for vaz026>031-
036>040-050>057-501-502-505-506.

Excessive heat watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for vaz028-030-031-052>057-501-502-505-506.

Excessive heat watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
evening for vaz028-030-031-052>057-501-502-505-506.

Wv... Heat advisory from 11 am to 9 pm edt Friday for wvz050>053-055-
502-504.

Excessive heat watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for wvz051>053.

Excessive heat watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
evening for wvz051>053.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hts
near term... Hts klw
short term... Hts
long term... Jmg
aviation... Klw jmg
marine... Klw jmg
climate... Klw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 8 mi51 min 84°F 1011.2 hPa
CPVM2 8 mi51 min 84°F 84°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 9 mi51 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 83°F 1012 hPa
FSNM2 9 mi63 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 86°F 1012.1 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 13 mi57 min WSW 1.9 G 4.1 84°F 83°F1011.6 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 13 mi57 min SE 4.1 G 6 81°F 86°F1012 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi39 min SSE 5.1 G 6 85°F 83°F1012.7 hPa (+0.6)79°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 34 mi57 min S 1 G 1.9 85°F 86°F1012.1 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi57 min 82°F 87°F1011.8 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi57 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 78°F 87°F1012 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi51 min WSW 7 G 13 82°F 1012.7 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi45 minN 010.00 miFair86°F80°F83%1011.8 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD11 mi59 minS 410.00 miFair82°F78°F89%1011.8 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD13 mi45 minWSW 310.00 miA Few Clouds80°F75°F85%1011.9 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD15 mi45 minno data mi85°F73°F70%1011.9 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD17 mi57 minN 010.00 miFair82°F80°F94%1012.5 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD17 mi57 minN 05.00 miFair73°F73°F100%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5Calm3CalmCalmNW3CalmSW3S4Calm3CalmNW4SW6S7W7NW7W6N5N3CalmSE4CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmS5S4S3S33S4S34SE6SE11SE11SE11S12
G18
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalm3SE4E6SE8SE7SE9SE9SE10SE10SE11S7S9S8S84SW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Cornfield Creek, Magothy River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:23 AM EDT     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:56 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:32 AM EDT     0.98 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:49 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:12 PM EDT     -1.02 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:48 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:32 PM EDT     0.62 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 10:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:30 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.300.40.70.910.80.4-0.1-0.5-0.9-1-1-0.7-0.30.10.40.60.60.40.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.