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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 1233 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
This afternoon..S winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Areas of dense fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers. Areas of dense fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw late. Waves 1 ft. Showers. Areas of dense fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming ne. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely in the evening. A chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.

ANZ500 1233 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
low pressure will slide by to the north today. A stronger frontal system looks to cross the waters Sunday into Monday. Another area of low pressure may impact the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure returns to the waters by late next week. Small craft advisories may be needed early next week.

FXUS61 KLWX 021459 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 959 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will move overhead Sunday with its associated cold front moving through the area Sunday afternoon. A stronger cold front will pass through the area late Tuesday night. High pressure builds for the second half of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The dense fog has generally focused east of the Blue Ridge as of 10 AM as dry air is working in from the NW. Expect dense fog to continue to dissipate through 11 AM and become more patchy thereafter. Otherwise, no major changes to the forecast at this juncture...

High clouds are also advancing/spreading northward and cover the entire area later today. After the stratus/fog lift later this morning, expect a mild day in temps warming into the low 60s. It should remain dry most of the day with rain associated with low pressure lifting from the Deep South holding off until early evening.

Rain will overspread the area this evening from south to northeast and exit the area around daybreak Sunday. This will be a heavier rain than what we saw yesterday with amounts between a quarter to half inch. MOS guidance has been the most consistent showing widespread areas of stratus and dense fog developing late tonight into Sunday. Additional Dense Fog Advisories may be needed late tonight.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Mid-level dry slot will work quickly into the area after 12Z Sunday while low-levels remain saturated. As low pressure moves overhead, low-level convergence should prove more than sufficient to generate areas of light drizzle for much of the day. Drizzle will last longer over northeast MD where low-levels will remain saturated for the longest time. Otherwise, expect cloudy skies and low cigs even outside areas of drizzle.

Low pressure will move away from the area Sunday night with clearing expected east of the Appalachians and rain showers turning into snow showers across the mountains with little or no snow accumulation through 12Z Monday.

Westerly flow Mon-Mon night and shortwave ridging will not be too conducive to snow accumulation across the mountains. Any accumulations are expected to be less than half inch through 12Z Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Entering Tuesday, we move into a bit of a transitional period. A clipper low diving southeastward out of central Canada will move towards the region Tuesday before passing overnight into Wednesday.
This system will bring much cooler air into the region once again along with the chance for some precipitation. Most areas will see rain Tuesday night into Wednesday, but the mountains will see a transition over to snow. Light upslope snow then continues throughout the day on Wednesday along/west of the Allegheny Front.

As mentioned before, this will bring about a substantial air mass change going into Thursday. Much colder high temperatures are expected, with highs only reaching the low to mid 40s. A brisk northwest wind will likely make it feel a good bit colder than that as well. Any lingering upslope snow should be over by Thursday, leaving the region dry on Thursday.

As high pressure shifts offshore on Friday, temperatures may moderate back into the 50s, but the region remains dry.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Areas of low stratus and fog are expected through 16Z today.
IAD, BWI, and DCA have all had improvement in VSBYs over the past 30 to 60 minutes. Expect this to continue through the morning. Rain arrives again around 00Z with next area of low pressure. Expect widespread areas of LIFR cigs and vsbys to develop late tonight as the rain lifts northeast. Expect IFR/LIFR cigs all day Sunday with areas of drizzle. Skies begin to clear Sunday night as WNW to NW winds strengthen.

A wave of low pressure will move across the region late Tuesday into Wednesday. While VFR conditions are likely for the majority of the long term period, there could be a few period of sub-VFR conditions during times of precipitation. Southwest winds at 8 to 12 kts on Tuesday afternoon before turning out of the northwest and picking up to 15 to 20 kts by Wednesday afternoon.

MARINE
Have maintained a MWS north of the Chesapeake Bay Bridge for fog over the waters reducing VSBYs below one nautical mile. Winds will likely remain below SCA through Monday. While winds aloft will strengthen Sunday, warm air blowing over cooler waters should inhibit stronger winds aloft from mixing down toward the surface.

Southwest flow on Tuesday ahead of an approaching low pressure system should remain sub-SCA. As the low passes into Wednesday, winds pick up out of the northwest by Wednesday afternoon, where SCAs are possible.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for DCZ001.
MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for MDZ006-008- 011-013-014-503>508.
VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for VAZ037>040- 051-053-054-501-502-505-506-526-527.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

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Cornfield Creek, Magothy River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Tide feet

Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Sat -- 02:43 AM EST     -0.99 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:31 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:09 AM EST     0.52 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:40 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:08 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:38 PM EST     -0.39 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:01 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:41 PM EST     0.81 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:57 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
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Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots

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