Tuesday, April7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Shore, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 7:37PM Tuesday April 7, 2020 4:28 PM EDT (20:28 UTC) Moonrise 6:15PMMoonset 5:44AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 141 Pm Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
This afternoon..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft... Building to 3 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 141 Pm Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight, and special marine warnings may be required, as gusty winds and large hail are possible with any storms. A weak cold front will pass through the waters on Wednesday, followed by a stronger cold front on Thursday, with yet another threat of strong Thunderstorms. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Wednesday afternoon, and again Thursday through Saturday. A gale warning may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Shore, MD
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location: 39.1, -76.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 071910 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 310 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak boundary lift northeast as a warm front through tonight. A series of upper-level disturbances will track along the boundary during this time. A weak cold front will pass through Wednesday followed by a much stronger cold front for Thursday. Canadian high pressure will gradually build overhead for late this week before low pressure possibly impacts the area early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Weak frontal zone draped across the area this afternoon with slightly cooler/drier/more stable air to its northeast across northern Maryland. Meanwhile, the remnant of a morning convective cluster in the Ohio Valley is currently crossing northern parts of the area. Along its southern flank it is encountering a slightly more unstable airmass and there has been occasional lightning. This rain, along with dense cloud cover, will likely reinforce the boundary, keeping the idea that the best convective activity will remain near or southwest of the Potomac River through this evening. Additional scattered showers/storms may for south of this cluster where there has been more sun. Mid level lapse rates are actually at their poorest this afternoon, so most activity may tend to struggle to get going.

An additional convective complex in the upper Ohio Valley may provide an additional trigger for storms this evening. If steep low level lapse rates remain, it will make locally damaging wind gusts the primary threat with any stronger storms. Severe hail would likely be limited to storms with rotating updrafts (which is possible due to sufficient shear) with instability initially rather meager amongst modest surface dew points. This activity may be assisted as a 700 mb speed max arrives and instability increases with better lapse rates. However, exact convective evolution remains quite uncertain through this evening.

There will likely be a bit of a lull during the late evening, but then the disturbance and associated low in the upper Great Lakes will approach late tonight. With a mid and upper speed max and steep mid level lapse rates associated with this disturbance, convection will likely be ongoing to our northwest. While most models are in fairly good agreement with convection existing, the biggest question is how much of it will survive through the diurnal minima, though synoptic forcing and increasing MUCAPE suggest it could. The primary threat with these storms might be hail (a somewhat uncommon occurrence at this time of day in this part of the country). The wind threat with these storms would have to be associated with the strongest downbursts due to nocturnal stabilization. Any storms that are left will likely be exiting or dissipating by daybreak.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Some combination of outflow from overnight convection and a weak front trailing the low passing by to our north will settle southward across the area on Wednesday. If the convection is more persistent in the predawn hours, it may effective push a stable airmass through the area (at least by the time diurnal heating ramps up). The trend in most 12Z guidance is for any additional convection to fire near our southern border or to the south and for coverage to be sparse. However, there are still a lot of mesoscale details to unfold, and with sufficient shear still in place, there is a conditional risk for a severe storm or two until the boundary can press south. The later afternoon hours and most of Wednesday night will likely be dry.

A stronger cold front will move through our region on Thursday. This system will be coupled with a strong upper level jet. Showers and perhaps thunderstorms will already be occurring along the front as it enters from the west early in the morning. Overall timing of the front will not be great diurnally, as it likely exits to the east by early/mid afternoon. However, there may be enough instability ahead of it, especially east of the Blue Ridge, for a squall line to develop. If so, there could be a risk of strong to damaging winds. As the front passes through our area, the pressure surge behind it will lead to increased winds leading to periods of 25 to 35 mph gusts. These winds should weaken Thursday evening. A cooler air mass will move in behind the frontal passage.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Friday and Saturday will be dry across the entire area, with seasonably cool temperatures (low to mid 50s) Friday, and temperatures near average (upper 50s to low 60s) on Saturday. There will likely be some high clouds around each afternoon, but should be mostly sunny. Friday night will see lows down in the mid 30s (upper 20s in the higher elevations). This brings about concerns for a frost Friday night, so will have to monitor. A bit uncertain, as some guidance keeps a little bit of wind around overnight out of the WNW.

The aforementioned area of high pressure will push offshore on Sunday, with southerly flow returning, bringing warmer and more moist air into the region. Initial thoughts are that the first half of the day stays dry. However, a potent cutoff upper low, previously sitting over the desert southwest, will be moving out over the southeast. Surface low pressure will form over the Arklatex and move off generally towards our region. Guidance is spread about how exactly this will evolve. Maintaining thoughts from yesterday that this has the potential to be an impactful event for the region in one of two ways. The first option is that the system tracks to our south, but we are solidly within the heavy rain threat, so flooding concerns could arise. The other possibility is for the system to track into the Ohio Valley, and bring a cold front through late Sunday or Monday (timing is still very much in flux), which would result in the potential for some severe weather. This is out near the end of the forecast period, so not locking onto any particular solution at this time, but at this point, these are the two scenarios that the guidance is coming up with.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. First disturbance producing showers and embedded thunderstorms is currently crossing the metro area with only brief moderate rain and gusty winds less than 30 kt. Next potential round of storms may not arrive until this evening (23Z or so), and it possible the greatest risk of impacts will mainly reside in between the terminals (though lowest at BWI/MTN overall). There is a risk some of this activity could be severe with large hail and damaging winds. There may actually be increased risk of thunderstorms (lightning) with any activity after dark. A final round of storms may enter the area late tonight and could also produce hail if they hold together. However, have not put TS in TAF yet due to uncertainty. There is a low chance of LLWS as a low level jet moves overhead, and there could be fog if clearing occurs between rain . but both are uncertain.

A weak boundary will sink southward Wednesday with gusty winds over 20 kt possible in its wake. At the moment, any redevelopment of showers/storms would likely occur south of most of the terminals, but a low risk remains.

Another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms is possible around midday Thursday with the potential to produce gusty winds. As a cold front follows, winds will pick up with gusts as high 30 to 35 knots possible.

VFR conditions conditions expected on Friday, but some residual gusty WNW winds behind the front could cause some issues, with gusts in the 15-25 knot range.

Winds will gradually diminish Friday night, with VFR conditions expected to continue through the day on Saturday.

MARINE. Showers and thunderstorms will affect our marine areas this afternoon and evening and then again late tonight. Some storms may require special marine warnings. More showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday, especially near southern Maryland, although this risk may be decreasing overall. Gradient winds behind a boundary could near SCA, especially nearshore, but confidence is low at this time. A cold front will pass through Thursday bringing gusty winds to all marine areas. A squall line with gusty showers and embedded thunderstorms may also accompany the front. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed with a possibility for a Gale Warning.

Dry conditions expected Friday, with high pressure building into the region. However, gusty winds will continue Friday behind the front, with SCA likely needed all day, and even through early Saturday at least. Gale conditions are possible on Friday afternoon as well, especially on the Bay.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ADS NEAR TERM . ADS SHORT TERM . ADS LONG TERM . CJL AVIATION . ADS/CJL MARINE . ADS/CJL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 8 mi58 min 64°F 1009.7 hPa
CPVM2 8 mi58 min 62°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 9 mi58 min SW 1.9 G 4.1 61°F 1010.4 hPa
FSNM2 9 mi82 min WSW 2.9 G 6 63°F 1010.4 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 13 mi58 min NW 4.1 G 7 64°F 56°F1010.1 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 13 mi58 min N 7 G 9.9 58°F 54°F1010.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi28 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 60°F 53°F1011.2 hPa (-1.9)53°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 26 mi118 min WNW 4.1 1010 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 34 mi58 min WNW 14 G 19 63°F 58°F1011.6 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi34 min S 7.8 G 7.8 58°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi58 min SSW 6 G 8.9 72°F 56°F1009.6 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi58 min SE 5.1 G 7 62°F 55°F1010.1 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi58 min SSE 11 G 13 1009.6 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi34 minNW 67.00 miLight Rain63°F52°F68%1010.5 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD11 mi43 minWNW 37.00 miOvercast63°F55°F77%1010.2 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD13 mi34 minWNW 57.00 miLight Rain63°F52°F68%1010 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD15 mi34 minno data mi64°F50°F60%1010.4 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD17 mi34 minN 010.00 miRain63°F57°F83%1010.5 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD17 mi43 minNW 47.00 miOvercast61°F53°F77%1011.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNAK

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8NW4S3SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3S3CalmSE5S5SE11SE11SE8E7NW6
1 day agoS8S11S7S6S9
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S8S3SE7SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmN7N7N9N10
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2 days agoE4SE5SE3SE4SE4SE4S4S4S4CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmSW3Calm4SW5W46SE9SE14SE9SE10

Tide / Current Tables for Cornfield Creek, Magothy River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:02 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:15 AM EDT     1.01 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:25 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:33 AM EDT     -1.00 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:46 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:42 PM EDT     0.85 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:39 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 11:42 PM EDT     -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.8-0.5-00.50.810.90.70.2-0.3-0.7-1-1-0.8-0.40.10.50.80.80.70.3-0.2-0.6-0.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.