Monday, July6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Edesville, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 8:36PM Monday July 6, 2020 8:39 PM EDT (00:39 UTC) Moonrise 9:06PMMoonset 5:58AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 825 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
.severe Thunderstorm watch 333 in effect until 11 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Widespread showers and tstms early this evening, then scattered showers and tstms after midnight.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms through the night.
Sat..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers likely . Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 825 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over the atlantic will control the weather pattern through Tuesday. Low pressure will develop to the south Wednesday and it may impact the waters late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Edesville, MD
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location: 39.11, -76.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 062354 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 754 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

SYNOPSIS. A frontal boundary remains stalled over the region today but will progress north of the area on Tuesday. A summer-like pattern will then persist throughout the week with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected most days along with above average temperatures. A coastal storm will the region Friday through Saturday as it moves north from the Carolinas.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. Have see a rapid decrease in the severity for the storms over E Central PA just within the past half hour, so have cancelled the watch for portions of northern and central NJ and Bucks County in PA. Will likely cancel even more of the northern half of the watch within the next 1 to 2 hours.

Previous discussion . We are starting to see coverage and severity of storms decrease across central and northern NJ and and eastern PA as a combination of the building cold pool and loss of peak heating is reducing instability. However, have kept the watch as is for now, as we still have a few storms developing north of the cold pool progressing southeast towards northwestern NJ. However, suspect that the northern half of the watch area may be canceled from the watch within the next hour or two.

Further south, especially across Delmarva, which hasn't seen hardly any of the outflow from earlier convection until now, the severe threat continues and should continue for the next few hours at least.

Heavy rain and flooding will continue to be a concern thanks to weak steering flow and storm training. We have already had one confirmed report of over 5 inches of storm total rain from the north Philly area from earlier storms.

Another concern over night will be fog development especially in locations where heavy rain has occurred earlier today. For now, have just blanketed the area with a mention of patchy fog across the area. However, will refine this further once we see the dew point depressions after sunset.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. Convection looks to continue into the daytime tomorrow, thankfully much more reduced than today. The remnant MCV/MCS from today's convection will be highly influential in convective initiation tomorrow. The lack of a shortwave but rather weak mid-level ridging, this should preclude as widespread convection as today. Forecast CAPE values of, dare say, only 2000-3000 J/kg also indicate weaker convection. Flooding with PWAT values still around still between 1.5-2 inches, is possible, especially over areas that saw abundant rainfall today. Highs will be a bit cooler in the mid to upper 80s as the front from today remains situated further south.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Summary: The extended forecast will feature continually active convective weather likely through next weekend, although the primary focus will be the influence of a departing coastal southern stream low Friday and Saturday.

Synoptic pattern: A fairly progressive pattern is expected, synoptically speaking, into this coming weekend. Tuesday will start with an upper trough departing eastward over the north Atlantic then as trough axis moves from the Great Lakes region east toward the Canadian maritimes by early Thursday. Ridging will follow briefly in the trough's wake late Thursday into Friday, then the attention turns to the southern stream trough digging across the Midwest and eventually into the southeast by Saturday. This trough will be the driver of the next synoptically forced system to impact our region into the weekend. Thankfully, it appears that the medium range guidance is coming into better agreement with regard to timing and evolution of the synoptic pattern during this period.

Sensible weather: The main theme for the upcoming long term period is "unsettled." Basically every day will probably feature convection in some way, shape, or form, however the mesoscale details beyond Tuesday are essentially impossible to determine this far out.

Southerly surface flow will persist Tuesday and Wednesday pumping a continual stream of warm and humid air into the region from the south. So it'll be quite warm and humid, but not excessively so. Expect maximum temperatures nearing 90 degrees and minimums around 70 both days along with dewpoints around 70 degrees along with scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly during the late afternoon and evening time frame.

Tuesday's convection and severe weather environmental setup will be similar to today's with the exception of a few things. Lapse rates will be lower (~6 C/km), so there won't be nearly as much of a hail threat. Precipitable water values will be about the same (1.7-1.9"), but the steering flow will be roughly parallel to the main initiating boundary (oriented E-W across central NJ and eastern PA). So flash flooding could be more of a concern. MLCAPE will remain high (~3000 J/kg) south of the boundary with DCAPE locally over 1000 J/kg. Deep layer shear for organization will be considerably less and flow aloft for forcing is also much less than today, so coverage appears to be much lower. Nonetheless, we will need to watch for wet microburst potential and flash flooding threats with Tuesday's convection.

Synoptically speaking, Thursday appears to be the driest day as a somewhat more prominent ridge passes to our north leading to more subsidence locally. With that said, could still see more isolated convective activity on Thursday. Surface flow will turn more southeasterly as a surface low takes shape across the coastal Carolinas. Still expecting highs right around 90 degrees and lows around 70.

Guidance has come into better agreement that the southern stream coastal low will lift north into the Mid-Atlantic Friday and depart Saturday. This system will bring precipitable water values nearing the "extreme" range for this latitude with values of 2.25-2.50" depicted by the GFS. The precipitation evolution of this system is still quite unclear at this time. I suspect there will be some sort of showery tropical band or bands of rain that lifts north across the eastern portion of the forecast area on Friday followed by more diurnally driven convection later in the day as instability builds. Both the GFS and ECMWF keep the highest QPF offshore, but with surface flow turning easterly with high moisture content, it's difficult to believe that QPF amounts will remain low over land.

On Saturday, the surface low will be departing to the north, but the upper trough axis will remain to our west along with a very soupy airmass and diurnally driven instability. So will still expect to see widespread convection with heavy rain potential. The main takeaway is that there is a heavy rain and potentially flash flooding threat with this system. Thankfully the system will be moving quickly, but it's something that will need to be watched closely.

Temperatures are a bit uncertain Friday and Saturday since cloud cover is a big question mark as of now, but with the tropical airmass that will be advected northward, I see no reason why we couldn't still get highs around 90 degrees. As you may have guessed, dewpoints will rise into the mid 70s Friday and Saturday, so it'll be quite uncomfortably humid regardless of the temperature. Long story short, expect Friday and Saturday to be very warm, wet, and humid.

Without any sort of strong cold front in the wake of this system, it'll likely remain quite warm and humid into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may continue to affect TAF sites through 04Z, especially for further south sites like KILG and KMIV. After 06Z, fog may develop especially at the terminals that received heavy rain today. MVFR at these terminals with IFR possible. Light mostly southeasterly winds. Moderate confidence on the overall patter but low confidence on details like timing.

Tuesday. Once the fog dissipates, mostly VFR conditions are expected. There is another chance for showers and storms after 18Z. However, it is difficult to determine which TAF sites will be impacted at this point. Mostly south winds around 10 knots outside of storms. Moderate confidence for most aspects of the forecast, but low confidence on the potential for storms.

Outlook .

Tuesday through Thursday . Prevailing VFR expected, however scattered showers and thunderstorms, generally between 18Z and 06Z each day, may locally lower restrictions. Winds will be generally southerly around 5-10 kts.

Friday . MVFR ceilings probable with southeasterly to easterly winds around 5-10 kts. Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers with embedded thunderstorms will lower visibility and ceiling restrictions locally.

MARINE. Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions tonight and Tuesday. Winds may gust around 20 knots at times though. The main hazard through the period will be thunderstorms with gusty winds and locally higher seas.

Outlook .

Conditions are forecast to remain below advisory criteria through Thursday, however southerly winds may gust up to 20 kts at times. Seas will be generally 2-3 feet. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday through Thursday, which may locally increase winds and seas.

On Friday, seas will build and may exceed 5 feet as winds become easterly and increase to 15 kts with higher gusts possible. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible on Friday.

Rip Currents .

There is a low risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents today through Tuesday. However, conditions may be locally moderate near the times of low tide owing to increasing southerly flow through the period.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park, PA (WNG704) remains off the air until further notice due to damage to the antenna during the June 3 derecho.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for PAZ070-071- 102-104-106. NJ . Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for NJZ015>019. DE . Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001. MD . Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Staarmann Near Term . Davis/Johnson Short Term . Davis Long Term . Staarmann Aviation . Johnson/O'Hara/Staarmann Marine . O'Hara/Staarmann Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 9 mi51 min ENE 7 G 14
CPVM2 16 mi51 min 78°F 69°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 20 mi51 min SW 2.9 G 8.9 76°F 1016.8 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 22 mi51 min E 7 G 9.9 76°F 1016.7 hPa
FSNM2 22 mi63 min E 8.9 G 11 77°F 1017.2 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 22 mi39 min WSW 17 G 19 78°F 80°F1017.7 hPa (+1.8)68°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 26 mi51 min E 7 G 11 78°F 83°F1016.5 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 33 mi51 min SE 8.9 G 15
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 37 mi51 min SSE 8.9 G 13
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi129 min S 4.1 1014 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 41 mi33 min 83°F 82°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 42 mi51 min NE 30 G 38
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 43 mi51 min SSE 11 G 18 71°F 79°F1017.6 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 43 mi51 min 83°F

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD14 mi44 minSSW 12 G 1810.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain75°F71°F89%1016.6 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD21 mi54 minSSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy88°F73°F62%1016.3 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD21 mi45 minVar 610.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F66°F81%1017.3 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD22 mi45 minN 02.00 miHeavy Rain72°F71°F100%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTN

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmCalmCalmS3Calm--SE3S6CalmS3S4SE3S4S6SE9SE9SE8SE10SE12SE14SE11SE11Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSE4SE7S5S5S4S6S6SW4SW3W3SE3SE5SE8S9SE10SE11CalmS4CalmSE3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalm--NW3--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE5E5CalmE7SE7E7SE8E7SE7SE4S4S3

Tide / Current Tables for Cliffs Wharf, Chester River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Mon -- 12:07 AM EDT     -0.64 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:42 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:28 AM EDT     1.23 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:55 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:17 PM EDT     -1.16 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:00 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:30 PM EDT     0.58 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:12 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.6-0.30.10.611.21.20.90.5-0-0.6-1-1.2-1.1-0.8-0.4-00.40.60.60.40.1-0.3

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.