Friday, January24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Strathmere, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:09PM Friday January 24, 2020 2:45 PM EST (19:45 UTC) Moonrise 8:10AMMoonset 5:58PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ453 Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 1246 Pm Est Fri Jan 24 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from midnight est tonight through late Saturday night...
This afternoon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. SWell mainly from the N with a dominant period of 4 seconds. A chance of rain after midnight.
Sat..SE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 7 to 10 ft. SWell mainly from the N with a dominant period of 4 seconds, becoming mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds in the afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Rain likely early in the evening.
Sun..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun night..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
ANZ400 1246 Pm Est Fri Jan 24 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will weaken and retreat to the northeast today before a storm system moves across the mid atlantic and northeast states late tonight through Saturday night. This low will strengthen as it moves into the canadian maritimes early next week while high pressure builds to our southwest. This high will build across the east coast toward the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Strathmere, NJ
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location: 39.13, -74.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 241431 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 931 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will weaken and retreat to the northeast today before a storm system moves across the Mid Atlantic and northeast states late tonight through Saturday night. This low will strengthen as it moves into the Canadian Maritimes early next week while high pressure builds to our southwest. This high will build across the east coast toward the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 930 AM Update: No significant changes made to the forecast. Blended in a bit of the latest hi-res guidance to fine tune things a bit through this evening. Overall a dry forecast with increasing clouds through the evening.

Previous discussion . High pressure centered over James Bay builds east today, and will be over the Canadian Maritimes by this evening. Easterly flow will be in place across the region, and warmer air will surge in from the south. Highs will several degrees warmer than Thursday, generally topping off in the 40s to around 50.

Several shortwaves will pass through the region, generally resulting in periods of high clouds throughout the day.

Meanwhile, low pressure over the Midwest will intensify as it lifts to the north and east and into the lower Great Lakes.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/. Deep low pressure over the lower Great lakes will lift to the northeast tonight. Several strong shortwaves rotating around the base of an H5 low will move into the Mid-Atlantic, and a secondary low forms over Virgina after midnight tonight. This secondary low tracks through Delmarva and then north through New Jersey during the day Saturday.

The vast majority of the region will be under the warm sector of the storm, so precip will fall as rain. The exception will be across the southern Poconos, northern New Jersey, and Lehigh Valley. With colder air wrapping around the base of high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes, surface temps will drop to freezing after midnight tonight and through Saturday morning. As a result, freezing rain will fall across the southern Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and far northwest New Jersey from late tonight through Saturday morning. In Carbon and Monroe counties, between 1/4-1/2 inch of ice will accrete, with the highest amounts in the highest elevations, and for the rest of the northern areas, up to 1/4 inch of ice will fall. A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for those areas.

For the rest of the region, increasing onshore flow will result in PWATs increasing to around 1 inch, resulting in moderate to locally heavy rain. MUCAPE will increase to around 100 J/kg as a 55-65 kt LLJ passes through the region. Will continue to carry slight chance for thunderstorms.

Rain continues for much of Saturday, gradually ending from south to north as the low moves towards NYC and western Long Island.

Highs will get into the mid 30s in the southern Poconos and far northwest new Jersey, and in the 40s to low 50s across the rest of the region, and in the mid to upper 50s in southern Delmarva.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. The low pressure that affects our area Friday night into Saturday will lift across the northeast states Saturday night through Sunday, the slowly drift across the Canadian maritimes early next week. As the low moves to our northeast, high pressure will build to our southwest through the middle of next week. This will keep a steady west to northwest flow for much of the long term period. Several short wave/vorticity impulses will move across the area for the first half of the long term period. For much of the period, mainly increase in clouds are expected, with the exception of Saturday night into Sunday when there could be isolated to scattered showers for portions of northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. High pressure will finally build across the east coast by the end of the week which will keep dry weather across the area.

AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Today . MVFR ceilings begin the morning for ABE and RDG, then improve to VFR later this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions continue through today for the rest of the TAF sites. Light and variable winds become easterly 5-10 knots later this morning and this afternoon. -High confidence.

Tonight . VFR conditions begin this evening, then lower to MVFR then IFR later this evening and overnight as rain moves into the area late in the night. Winds remain easterly and may begin gusting 15-20 knots overnight. -High confidence.

Outlook .

Saturday . Conditions continue to lower to IFR as periods of rain move across the area, possibly heavy at times early in the day. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms. Freezing rain is expected to remain north of ABE and RDG. East to southeast winds shift to westerly behind an area of low pressure. -Moderate confidence.

Saturday night . Conditions likely begin to improve to VFR during the evening and overnight. Winds westerly and may gust 15-20 knots at times. -Moderate confidence.

Sunday-Tuesday . Ceilings may vary between VFR and MVFR at times through the period. Wind remain west to northwest and may gust 15-20 knots at times. -Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Sub-SCA conditions on tap for today. East winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. The easterly pressure gradient increases tonight, and SCA conditions develop on all waters after midnight tonight.

On Saturday, with a strong low level jet passing through the northern ocean waters, a period of gale force winds is possible Saturday afternoon. Will hoist a Gale Watch for the northern New Jersey ocean waters for Saturday.

Ocean seas 3-4 feet today, increasing to 5-7 feet tonight, then to 6- 10 feet on Saturday.

OUTLOOK .

Saturday night-Sunday night . Winds and waves are forecast to remain above advisory levels at times.

Monday-Tuesday . Winds may remain above advisory levels at times, however, seas are forecast to lower below 5 feet.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The combination of a new moon today, along with an onshore flow is expected to lead to areas of coastal flooding with the high tide Saturday. Currently, advisory-level flooding is expected at most locations along the ocean front, back bays, and Delaware Bay. However, there could be a few pockets of moderate flooding, depending on the exact timing of the storm. Based on current model guidance, no problems are anticipated along the upper eastern shore of the Chesapeake Bay.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Saturday for PAZ054-055-061-062. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Saturday for NJZ001-007-008. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to noon EST Saturday for NJZ012>014-020>027. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for NJZ016. DE . Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to noon EST Saturday for DEZ002>004. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for DEZ001. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ452>455. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for ANZ450-451. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ450-451. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM EST Saturday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . Robertson Near Term . MPS/Staarmann Short Term . MPS Long Term . Robertson Aviation . Robertson Marine . MPS/Robertson Tides/Coastal Flooding . Fitzsimmons/MPS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 16 mi45 min 44°F 40°F1025.6 hPa (-2.8)
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 27 mi45 min 48°F 41°F1024 hPa (-2.8)
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 28 mi75 min NE 12 47°F 1026 hPa42°F
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 34 mi51 min 50°F 1024.7 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 41 mi45 min 45°F 40°F1024.1 hPa (-3.0)
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 48 mi55 min NE 9.7 G 12 48°F 48°F5 ft1021.2 hPa (-2.5)
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 49 mi45 min 43°F 41°F1024.3 hPa (-3.2)

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ23 mi1.9 hrsE 1210.00 miOvercast52°F39°F62%1026.1 hPa
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ23 mi49 minENE 11 G 1710.00 miOvercast48°F43°F83%1025 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACY

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------------------------NE3CalmNE5E7E9E10E12E9
1 day ago3N4----CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalm--Calm----------CalmCalmN3--------
2 days agoNW10N11N6NW3NW4N4N3NW3N5CalmCalmN3N6NW6NW3NW3NW4NW3NW5N7NW6CalmNW6NW5

Tide / Current Tables for Strathmere, Strathmere Bay, New Jersey
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Strathmere
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:10 AM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:11 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:22 AM EST     4.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:52 PM EST     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:44 PM EST     New Moon
Fri -- 04:58 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:47 PM EST     3.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.2-0.200.81.933.94.44.33.62.71.60.6-0.2-0.4-00.81.82.83.43.63.22.41.6

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Thorofare, Ocean Drive bridge, New Jersey
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Middle Thorofare
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:02 AM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:11 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:22 AM EST     4.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:44 PM EST     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:44 PM EST     New Moon
Fri -- 04:58 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:47 PM EST     3.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.20.10.91.933.94.44.33.62.61.50.5-0.2-0.40.10.91.92.83.43.63.22.41.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.