Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bingham, IL

SHORT TERM
(Through Late Wednesday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Thunderstorms continue to exit the region to the east this afternoon as a cold front continues to slowly progress southward.
The surface front eventually stalls over northern Arkansas eastward into Tennessee late this evening. This pushes higher moisture (in terms of 60+ degree dewpoints) to the south, gradually trailing off into the 50s/40s from south to north.
Dry conditions are expected behind the exiting shield of rain until the next round develops this evening into tonight.

Another shortwave will begin lifting northeast ahead of the main upper level trough axis that is centered over New Mexico. This influences the northward return of the boundary, first resulting in warm air advection in the mid/upper levels. Meanwhile, a surface disturbance lifts northeast later in the morning, drawing the warm sector northward over much of the CWA by late morning and early afternoon. Hi-res guidance is fair agreement with scattered showers and thunderstorm initially running along the stalled boundary to the south. The bulk of the activity stems from a broader area of precipitation that takes shape in closer proximity to the surface disturbance over eastern Oklahoma, which then spreads northeast through the morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms become numerous, but show indications that it will be in a weakening phase as it outruns better instability to the south. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are the likely result with little support for severe convection.

Concerns for severe weather hold off until later in the day Wednesday into Wednesday night. The forecast is challenged by initial morning activity as it reinforces cooler surfaces temperatures to the south, stabilizing the atmosphere for at least a brief period through early afternoon. Instability (2000-2500 J/kg MUCAPE) capable of supporting more intense convection remains parked over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois with an ever-so-slight northward jaunt in the pool of higher CAPE values ahead of the next round. NAM is a bit of an outlier with the northward extent of the instability, while hi-res solutions largely confine these values along and south of I-70. Severe potential will depend on how quickly morning rain moves out and recovery begins. While clouds may break some south of the warm front and ahead of the next round of convection, clearing is unlikely. Nonetheless, it's something to monitor in the region of higher instability, where the LLJ begins to strengthen during the late afternoon, 0-6 km shear hovers around 40 kts and a surface low enhances lift. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday evening. Modest mid-level lapse rates (6-7C) and weaker lift aloft may limit hail to marginally severe limits, while small curvature in hodographs also suggest the potential for weak, short- lived tornadoes. Once again, it doesn't look like the setup for an outbreak, but rather poses a threat for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms.

Maples

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

By Thursday, a surface low races out of the southern Plains ahead of the upper level trough that crosses through region through Thursday afternoon. Timing of the front will be key to how much of the area stands any chance for stronger thunderstorms, as the front makes it into the central portion of the CWA by early afternoon. SBCAPE is all but negligible along and north of I-44 in Missouri and I-70 in Illinois. The best potential looks to be over far southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois with enough time take advantage of diurnal heating. As the surface low approaches, instability ahead of the surface low builds to 2000-2500 J/kg, providing the fuel for additional development. Once again, parameters are supportive for some weakly organize convection before the front clears the region.
The window looks very short, though, as the front clears to the east by late afternoon. Showers persist behind the front until ascent wanes with the departure of the upper trough Thursday evening.

Cooler air begins to move in Friday as an upper level trough jets southeast out of Canada and extends southwest from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Surface temperatures, though slightly cooler than previous days, may be enough to provide weak instability as temperatures cool aloft. Scattered showers and a few sub-severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon.

A quiet period looks to begin next weekend with surface high pressure building southeast out of the northern Plains ahead of an amplified upper trough to the west. Seasonably cool temperatures are likely under the surface ridge, especially Saturday and Sunday mornings, when temperatures drop into the 40s. THe surface high shifts east Sunday afternoon with return flow resulting in a nice response to surface temperatures warming to near normal (upper 60s/mid-70s). The upper level ridge axis continues to shift east into early next week, allowing temperatures to moderate even further, rising back above normal by Tuesday.

Maples

AVIATION
(For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1011 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Not much has changed since the 0Z TAF package. Dry weather is expected through the early overnight hours before widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms approaches from southwest Missouri toward daybreak Wednesday morning. This activity should spread northeast through the area Wednesday morning. MVFR visibilities in showers/thunderstorms are expected. Nearly coincident with the onset of rain, look for low MVFR and potentially high IFR ceilings to impact the region as a warm front moves to the north. Some MVFR visibilities in fog is also possible. Behind the warm front, look for southeast surface winds and likely a period of dry weather Wednesday afternoon. Ceilings will also gradually improve throughout the afternoon, with VFR conditions spreading northward.
The exception is KUIN which should stay north of the boundary the entire period. Therefore, they should remain entrenched in low stratus with ceilings around 1000 feet AGL. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop very late Wednesday afternoon, but more likely Wednesday evening/overnight.
There is less confidence in the timing and which area will be favored for this activity.

Gosselin

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.