SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Currently..

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are present across the area as of 2pm this afternoon, mainly over the high country.
rainfall rates of about an inch per hour are present in storms over portions of the Upper Arkansas River Valley. For example, Salida saw .25 inches of rain in about 20 minutes out of one cell at around 1pm. Area burn scars and other flood prone locations are being monitored closely this afternoon with subtropical moisture overhead.
Temperatures are in the upper 80s and low 90s across the plains, with 80s across mountain valleys. Dewpoints are in the 40s and 50s.
As of 2pm, all lightning activity has remained confined to the higher terrain.

Rest of Today and Tonight..

Showers and storms are expected to drift off the terrain within the next couple of hours, though with weak shear in place, most activity is expected to weaken quickly once it gets east of the I-25 corridor. Our burn scars and flood prone areas to include the Chalk Cliffs are our biggest concerns for the late afternoon and early evening hours, with rainfall rates of over an inch per hour and the possibility of multiple cells passing over the same areas, flash flooding will continue to be possible over the high country for the next several hours. Convective activity is expected to dwindle quickly after sunset, with most areas clear and dry by around 9pm or so at the latest. Overnight lows will be near to just above normal for most locations.

Tomorrow..

Coverage and intensity of showers and storms look to increase tomorrow, especially over the lower terrain. Models show increasing southwesterly flow, which will help to push storms off the terrain.
Shear also increases tomorrow, which will further help to support storms and keep them organized as they move out onto the plains tomorrow. Instability is lacking though, which should help to stave off chances for severe thunderstorm development, though a few stronger storms will still be possible over the lower terrain given the moisture available. Excessive rainfall, localized flash flooding, small hail, and wind gusts to 45 mph will be possible with storms tomorrow. Some drying in the mid-levels begins to work its way in from the west tomorrow, which is evident in the PWAT anomalies from today versus tomorrow. This could help to limit flash flooding potential over the mountains for tomorrow, though susceptible areas will still need to be monitored closely. For temperatures, expect near to just above normal highs in the mid 80s to upper 90s across the plains, mid 80s to low 90s for mountain valleys, and 70s for the higher terrain.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Showers and thunderstorms linger into Saturday night as the upper trough glances by to the north and a surface boundary drops southward into the plains. Overall, activity becomes more isolated through late evening with best chances north of highway 50 in the proximity of the front.

Sunday will be dry and breezy as enhanced southwesterly flow behind the passing wave remains over the region. This dries out the atmosphere significantly with PWATs dropping off to 0.2 to 0.5 over the mountains and around 0.80 or less across the plains.
Thunderstorm chances look very low with perhaps only some isolated thunderstorms at best across the higher terrain. Winds will remain breezy which will elevate fire weather concerns as temperatures begin the warm up. Highs on the plains are likely to reach 100-104, though with the higher temperatures in climo, these are still largely below Heat Advisory levels for all but a small part of El Paso county. While humidity and wind values will reach critical fire weather conditions along and north of highway 50 across Teller, Fremont, Chaffee and Lake counties, land management agencies are not reporting fuels as critically dry. So no fire weather highlights appear needed at this point thanks to recent rainfall over the area. However, fuels will begin to cure as we start a prolonged drying trend.

Hot and dry conditions will continue much of next week with the potential to tie or break records at all three sites. Best chances will be Tuesday and Wednesday. Heat Advisories become more likely for the urban areas of the I-25 corridor Monday through Wednesday and although climo is hotter across the plains, some lower Arkansas River Valley counties could also be under the risk Tue and Wednesday depending on how details are resolved.

A weak frontal boundary and some mid/high based moisture may help to cool temperatures down a couple degrees for Thursday and bring some isolated to scattered thunderstorms to the region. These are more likely to produce gusty outflow winds but only spotty light rainfall amounts. But this should help take the edge of high temperatures some. Similar story continues for Friday with meager monsoon moisture wrapping around the upper high and low level easterly flow keeping some modest 40s to lower 50 dew points across the plains.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible again in the afternoon with high temperatures dropping back into the 90s across the plains, 80s for the lower valley locations and 60s and 70s for the high country.
-KT

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Outside of thunderstorm chances this afternoon, VFR conditions are expected through a majority of the TAF period at KCOS, KPUB, and KALS. Chances for storms within the vicinity of all three stations increase from 21Z until 02Z this evening, with a slight chance for storms to move over any station during this timeframe as well.
Main risks with storms today will be gusty and erratic winds gusting up to 45 mph, small hail, lightning, and heavy rain.
MVFR, and potentially IFR, ceilings and visibilities will be possible at KALS after 09Z tonight through the early morning hours of tomorrow, especially if rain falls near station later today.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.