Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Palmer Lake, CO

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 304 AM MDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Today and Tonight...

An upper-level trough will move through our region today, along with an associated area of low pressure. Flow aloft becomes a bit more westerly, and weakens a bit, limiting our access to shear.
Additionally, as the low appears to stay well south of our forecast area, best forcing for stronger convection appears to remain to our south and east throughout the day. The exception to this will be the mountains, which should see scattered showers and thunderstorms starting in the early afternoon, though nothing is expected to be particularly strong with the lack of good synoptic forcing. Given expected humidity values, if any storms do manage to move off of the mountains onto the lower terrain, little rain would actually hit the ground, and the most likely impact would be gusty and erratic outflow winds from virga. Otherwise, temperatures will be a fair bit warmer today, with highs in the 60s-70s over most of the area, and slightly cooler in the valleys.

A cold front is expected to move in from the north, hitting the plains early this evening. Precip chances will increase over and near the Palmer Divide and parts of our northernmost mountain peaks, but downsloping limits any chance of precip south of El Paso County.
Lows behind the front will be somewhat cool, with 40s over the eastern plains, and generally 30s west of I-25, with the coldest temps in the mountain valleys.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 304 AM MDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Thursday..

Behind tonight's cold front, Thursday is expected to be on the cool side with likely (80%) chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms over and near the mountains. High temperatures will be cooler than normal, topping out in the 50s and 60s across mountain valleys and our plains. With cooler temperatures and and overall lack of instability on Thursday, severe storms are not expected.
Showers and weaker thunderstorms look to initiate over the high country early in the afternoon, spreading east onto our plains throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Areas along and near the mountains will see the highest chances for precipitation, though many models do manage to drag at least scattered pops out onto our plains as well. Snow will also be possible across the high country, mainly above 9,000ft. Accumulations look to be light, with highest amounts of 2 to 4 inches possible over the highest peaks of the Continental Divide and the top of Pikes Peak.

Friday and Saturday..

As another trough develops out west, upper energy over the Desert Southwest is forecast to slowly lift northeast across Colorado Friday into Saturday. This system looks to bring decent chances for meaningful precipitation through this period, especially over the high country, though a few showers and weaker storms could drift off the terrain and into the mountain adjacent plains Friday as well.
Temperatures look to gradually increase through this period, with near normal highs on Friday and slightly above normal highs on Saturday. As the embedded energy passes overhead on Saturday, chances for showers and storms will increase, again, especially over the high country.

Sunday Onwards..

Models are in strong agreement with bringing in a potent upper low for the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe, though there are still subtle differences in timing, track, and amplitude. Models continue to trend towards more moisture with this system, which has decreased our potential for critical fire weather on Sunday. Though winds will be on the increase for Sunday and Monday, humidity values appear to remain above 20%, and most zones have also experienced significant greenup as well, which means that fuels are not critical at this time. Sunday looks to be the warmest day of the period, with highs climbing into the 80s across the plains and 60s over mountain valleys. Models bring the low onshore over southern California on Sunday, dragging it eastwards and into the Utah/Colorado region by Monday morning. This setup will mean chances for showers and storms on Sunday, with storms increasing in coverage and intensity for Monday and Tuesday as strong southerly flow aloft parks over our region, possibly straight through Wednesday. This setup will also mean that dryline thunderstorm activity will be possible, with all modes of severe possible through the first few days of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 504 AM MDT Wed Apr 30 2025

For KCOS and KPUB..VFR conditions are expected through the majority of the TAF period, with MVFR ceilings and chances for showers near both stations late in the period. Winds are light and northerly early this morning, and will turn easterly and southeasterly throughout the afternoon. Meanwhile, mid-level clouds will increase throughout the period. A cold front is forecasted to come through both terminals shortly after 00Z, KCOS an hour or two before KPUB. Behind the front, winds will gust just over 20 knots from the north, and ceilings will lower.
IFR ceilings and showers on station will be possible near the very end of the period, though confidence was too low to include in either TAF at this time.

For KALS..VFR conditions are expected through 24 hours. Gusty west winds and increasing mid-level clouds will set in during the mid-afternoon, with gusts around 20 knots through the evening. Winds and cloud cover decrease towards the end of this forecast period.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.