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FXUS65 KPUB 041745 AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1045 AM MST Mon Dec 4 2023

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 354 AM MST Mon Dec 4 2023

Key messages:

- Snow showers end this morning over the central mountains, though some blowing/drifting snow will persist above timberline into the afternoon

- Warmer with less wind most locations this afternoon

Still some snow showers and blowing snow early this morning over the central mountains, though appears bulk of accumulating snow has ended, and have cancelled all winter weather highlights as of 4 am.
Any snow showers/flurries this morning will end by midday as best moisture lifts northward, though will hold on to some blowing snow over the higher mountain peaks, as brisk northwest flow remains in place. Winds should subside this afternoon and tonight as upper ridge over the wrn U.S. builds eastward, while weak cold front slides southward through the plains later today/this evening. Max temps today ahead of the front will climb to well above average levels at many locations, with readings on the 60s across most of the eastern plains. Tonight, seasonably cool with clear skies and light winds, though just enough downslope gradient develops to keep eastern mountain slopes at/above freezing into early Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 354 AM MST Mon Dec 4 2023

Key Messages:

- High Temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal levels through mid week

- Increasing winds and fire danger on Thursday

- Cooler with precipitation mainly over and near the higher terrain Friday and Saturday

Tuesday-Thursday...Latest models in good agreement of overall pattern with moderating northwest flow as upper level ridging builds across the Rockies through the day Wednesday. The ridge then flattens with increasing westerly flow across the region later Wednesday and Thursday, as Eastern Pacific energy translates across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies. This pattern supports warm and dry weather through mid week, with highs some 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal levels in the 50s to lower 60s across the plains on Tuesday and in the 60s to around 70 on Wednesday, with highs across the higher terrain being in the 40s and 50s.
Increasing westerly flow aloft and lee troughing across the Plains on Thursday will bring one last day of well above seasonal temperatures and breezy conditions to the region on Thursday, with some spotty critical fire weather conditions being realized across portions of the I-25 Corridor and SE Plains.

Friday-Sunday...While there is still time for change, the latest model runs of the GFS, EC and Canadian, as was well as their ensemble means, are in good agreement of a broad upper trough digging across the Central Rockies Friday and Saturday. This pattern supports good chances of precipitation to areas over and near the higher terrain, as well as at and below seasonal temperatures to the region into early next weekend. While some precipitation will be possible across the southeast Plains with the passing system and its associated cold front through the day Friday, deep north to northeast orographic flow supports the best precipitation chances being across the Pikes Peak/Palmer Dvd region, through the Wet Mtns, southern Sangre de Cristo Mtns and the Southern I-25 Corridor and Raton Mesa. Temperatures are expected to be at or below seasonal levels Friday and below seasonal levels on Saturday. Moderate to strong northwest flow across the region on Sunday will keep orographic snow showers in the forecast across the Central Mtns on Sunday, with breezy conditions and temperatures warming back to around seasonal levels.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1041 AM MST Mon Dec 4 2023

VFR conditions are near certain during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites KPUB, KALS and KCOS. The main issue with this forecast is the winds, per hi res guidance, are showing quite a bit of variability in direction today at KCOS and KPUB, especially this afternoon. I tried to account for this in the tafs given the speeds may be in th 10 to 15 knt range at times, however I do understand the tafs are rather long given the benign weather.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.

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