Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 7:43 PM Moonrise 4:50 PM   Moonset 4:54 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS65 KPUB 200502 AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1102 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag conditions continue this evening over the San Luis Valley.

- Rain, snow, and occasional weak thunderstorms continue from this evening into tomorrow, especially for portions of the high country and the Pikes Peak region.

- Periodic showers for the mountains and frontal intrusions across the plains but overall warmer, especially later next week.

UPDATE
Issued at 640 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Quick update to the forecast grids to incorporate latest obs data, and for the expiration of the Red Flag Warning for the San Luis Valley. Isolated to scattered light rain showers will be possible across the I-25 Corridor this evening, though QPF amounts will be very light. The showers will likely be snow over Monument Hill and across Teller County, with new snow amounts up to around 2 inches possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 240 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Currently..

Radar and satellite imagery depict extensive cloud cover and light precipitation over portions of our central mountains, the La Garitas, and the Pikes Peak region as of 2pm. Temperatures are well above freezing across the area this afternoon, with some locations even in the 50s this hour despite today's cloud cover. Most of the high country is already seeing northwesterly winds, with southeasterly winds still prevailing over the plains. The San Luis Valley is very dry and windy, and is still under a Red Flag Warning until 7pm this evening. Observations across the area indicate southwesterly winds gusting to 30 mph this hour, with relative humidity values in the low teens. Conditions are expected to improve quickly after midnight, as moist easterly winds will likely begin to push in through the terrain east of the valley.

This Evening and Tonight..

As better lift continues to move in from west to east across northern portions of the forecast area, expecting showers to continue to spread into Fremont County, the Northern Sangres, the Wet Mountains, and eventually El Paso and northern Pueblo counties as well. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible as well later this afternoon and this evening. Precipitation looks to stay liquid until at least 7pm or so for locations below 10,000ft. After sunset we will start to rain/snow mix along the Palmer Divide and higher elevations of Teller County, with an eventual transition to all snow by midnight, and through the early morning hours for lower elevations of El Paso County. Overall impacts are expected to be very minimal, with highest new snow amounts being around 4 inches for highest elevations of the central mountains and Pikes Peak. Most locations will see 2 inches or less of wet snow with this warm system. Snow showers spread southward into our southeast mountains through the overnight hours, though accumulations are expected to be light down south as well.

Tomorrow..

Shortwave energy brings another round of showers and weak thunderstorms to the high country tomorrow in the late morning and early afternoon hours, some of which will begin to leak out onto the plains by early afternoon. Upslope induced, light snow showers continue through the early morning hours of tomorrow on the plains, though dense fog and low clouds could end up being more of a forecast challenge overall, especially for El Paso County. With continued upslope conditions and southeasterly winds through the morning hours, it could be difficult to break out of the cloud cover for long before the next round of showers and weak thunderstorms begins push off the mountains and into the I-25 corridor. High res model guidance points towards a possible clearing period from around 10am through 2pm, though with continued southeasterly winds during that timeframe, confidence is low to medium for substantial clearing over locations that are favored in southeasterly upslope winds.
Spotty rain showers and storms look to continue pushing off the terrain and into the I-25 corridor through the afternoon hours tomorrow, with precipitation remaining all liquid, and temperatures warming into the upper 40s to mid 50s for our plains despite extensive cloud cover. The warmest spot on the map looks to be the San Luis Valley tomorrow, where highs look to reach into the mid 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 240 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The upper trough passes to the east Saturday night with showers coming to an end from north to south. Any additional snow accumulation across the higher elevations will be light.
Shortwave ridging is expected for Sunday with warmer and drier weather returning.

Westerly flow increases for Monday as another system passes to the north. This will bring warmer temperatures along with gustier winds to the region. Will need to monitor the San Luis Valley and southern I-25 corridor locations for possible fire weather highlights, however matters get complicated by an afternoon arrival of a cold front across the plains in the wake of the passing system to the north. The GFS, being on the faster and more southern side of solutions with the eastward progression of the northern plains upper low, backdoors this front into eastern portions of the area in the afternoon. The remainder of the models hold the front off until Monday night. Suspect we will need another Fire Weather Watch as we get closer to the event and details on location become more certain.

Temperatures get knocked down a few degrees for Tuesday and post frontal upslope flow and afternoon instability bring an uptick in afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms over and near the mountains. Southwest flow increases for late week with increasing spread in extended models on the timing of the next upper wave. Overall, the pattern remains unsettled with a ramp up in critical fire weather conditions possible late week, along with the possibility of some dry line thunderstorms along our eastern border on Wednesday. A more widespread uptick in showers and thunderstorms with the next system and cold front comes late week or into next weekend, though the variations in timing make this a low confidence forecast for the time being. -KT

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1102 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for KALS throughout the forecast period. There will be VFR/IFR conditions for KCOS and KPUB due to low CIGs /-RA and possible LIFR in KCOS due to FG in the morning hours. Conditions will not improve much for both KCOS and KPUB with CIGs only increasing to MVFR criteria during the day but then likely dropping back to IFR criteria towards the end of the forecast period. VCSH will also likely to remain throughout the entire period for both locations. Winds will be synoptically driven at all terminals, mostly out of the SE at KALS, then coming around to the NW by later in the day and could get gusty before returning out of the SE towards the end of the forecast period. At KCOS and KPUB, then will switch from NE to SE, then back to NE by later in the evening by tomorrow evening. -Stewey

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Denver/Boulder, CO,