Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Palmer Lake, CO

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 351 AM MST Fri Jan 24 2025

Today: For the end of the week, relatively quiet weather is expected for much of south central and southeastern Colorado. A broad and low amplitude ridge will be pushing over the area, and start exiting/flattening by mid to late day. With this feature in place, overall descent will be in place, and given this, dry conditions are expected throughout the day for the region. The exception to this may be along the central mountains, where highly isolated light snow showers may start to blossom as the ridge flattens and westerly flow develops and orographic forcing starts to rise. Along with that, breezy westerly to southwesterly winds around 10 to 20 mph are anticipated for many, with stronger winds along the higher terrain.
Otherwise, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are anticipated as high level clouds stream over the area, with mild temperatures for most. Speaking of temperatures, Friday will bring a period of warmer and more seasonable temperatures, as the aforementioned westerly winds help to warm the region. Given that, the plains will warm into the mid 40s to low 50s, the valleys will reach into the 30s, and the mountains will rise into the 20s. With that all said though, Friday will be another day of downsloping winds vs the heavier cold air across the plains. If downsloping prevails, the aforementioned temperatures are expected, but if the colder air holds out, the warmest temperatures will be closer along the leeward side of the eastern mountains, with temperatures slightly colder than current thinking in the lower Arkansas River Valley area.

Tonight: Friday night will remain relatively quiet for much of south central and southeastern Colorado, with mountain snow showers returning. The aforementioned broad ridge will flatten out late Friday day and early Friday evening, with westerly flow prevailing thereafter. While no major synoptic forcing is expected, orographic forcing will increase along the mountains, and especially along the central mountains where flow will be strongest. With the uptick in orographic forcing, and a modest bump up in moisture, light snow showers are anticipated to bloom along the mountains Friday evening and persist through Friday night, with the greatest coverage of showers along the central mountains. Elsewhere though, dry conditions are expected, though a snow shower pushing across the upper Arkansas River Valley can't be ruled out. Beyond all of that, relatively light winds are expected, with mid to high level clouds increasing with the modest moisture streaming over the area. Along with that, a backdoor cold front will push southward early Friday evening. While this front will have more of local influence Saturday, it will usher in colder air and low to mid level clouds during this period, especially for the plains. In addition, it may help develop flurries to very light snow along the Palmer Divide late Friday night into early Saturday morning given northerly winds upsloping into this localized area. Looking at temperatures, a cold night is anticipated thanks to the cold front passage, with much of the are falling to around and about 5F below seasonal values. Given that, the plains will sink into the low to mid 10s, with the valleys and mountains dropping into the single digits to low 10s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 352 AM MST Fri Jan 24 2025

Saturday-Sunday...Latest model data is in good agreement of a broad upper trough digging across the Northern Tier through the day Friday, before splitting Friday night and Saturday. One piece of the system continues to translate east across the Upper Midwest and into the Upper Great Lakes, while the trailing energy digs across the Intermountain West and Great Basin and eventually develops a closed upper low across central California through the day Sunday. With that said, the best moisture, uvv and snow potential with the passing system stays north of south central and southeast Colorado on Saturday.
However, will continue to see cold air moving into the region Saturday morning, with stratus filling in behind a backdoor cold front associated with a cold Canadian surface high pressure system building across the Northern High Plains. The combination of cold low level east to southeast upslope, and weak mid level waa within south to southwest H7 flow will develop light snowfall over and near the higher terrain through the day Saturday, with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, greatest across the higher terrain of the Central Mtns, and the eastern slopes of the Rampart Range and Wet Mtns. Highs on Saturday will be well below seasonal levels with mainly 20s across the plains, and mainly in the teens and 20s across the higher terrain, save for 30s in the San Luis Valley. Drier and warmer conditions are on tap for Sunday, as upper level ridging builds into the Rockies, however the westerly flow aloft will keep chances of snow showers along and west of the ContDvd.

Monday-Thursday...Drier and warmer weather continues for Monday into Tuesday with upper level ridging giving way to increasing southerly flow through the middle of the work week, as the California upper low starts to move south and east into the Desert Southwest. There continues to be run to run differences on the track of this system, leading to low confidence of precipitation timing and amounts spreading into the Rockies later in the work week. Time will tell.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 352 AM MST Fri Jan 24 2025

KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Winds will remain light and less than 10 knots throughout this TAF period. Clear skies are expected for most of this TAF period, with mid to high level clouds increasing late Friday night into Saturday morning. Otherwise dry conditions are anticipated.

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected for the majority of this TAF period, with MVFR conditions possibly developing for the end of this TAF period. Other than a mid to high based wave cloud early this morning, clear skies are expected, though with cloud cover quickly increasing and dropping late Friday night into Saturday morning, especially for KCOS. Winds will remain relatively light and around 10 knots through this TAF period, though will quickly transition to northerly winds late Friday afternoon to early evening as a cold front pushes southward. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected, though very light flurries can not be ruled out right at the end of this TAF period, especially for KCOS.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.