Palmer Lake, CO Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Palmer Lake, CO

April 14, 2024 2:59 AM MDT (08:59 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:21 AM   Sunset 7:37 PM
Moonrise 10:40 AM   Moonset 1:46 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palmer Lake, CO
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Area Discussion for - Pueblo, CO
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FXUS65 KPUB 140529 AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1129 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued above normal temperatures and high fire danger expected over portions of the plains and San Luis Valley tomorrow.

- Critical fire weather conditions will be widespread over all of the plains and within the San Luis Valley on Monday.

- Snow will begin over the ContDvd on Monday, and then spread eastward over the higher terrain through the evening and into the plains as mostly rain on Tuesday.

- Fire weather conditions will be possible over the southern I-25 corridor on Tuesday and most of the southeast plains on Wednesday, and then for the San Luis Valley on Thursday and Friday.

- Chances of precip will continue to be possible through the end of next week, mainly over the higher terrain.

UPDATE
Issued at 809 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Monday still looks on target to bring widespread critical fire weather conditions to the lower elevations of south central and southeast Colorado. After a quick review of fuel conditions, have added fire zone 222 (Fremont County) to the Fire Weather Watch as latest updates now indicate vegetation is dry enough to carry fire. -KT

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 249 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

The latest mid-level analysis indicates that the area is in a southwesterly flow well in advance of a closed low off the California coast. Some weak mid-level vort energy is exiting eastward of Colorado with a broad swath of dry mid-level air encroaching Colorado from southern California and the Desert Southwest. The latest relative humidity time-height cross section indicates a deep layer of dry air aloft across southeastern Colorado. At the surface, a 1019mb high is centered over the Arizona- New Mexico border. Satellite imagery indicates mostly sunny skies across the area with only a few passing high clouds.

Tonight, the dry southwesterly mid-level flow will continue as the deep layer of dry air dominates the region. Meanwhile, the surface high will remain centered over the AZ-NM border and extend northward into Colorado. Thus, there is model agreement that support clear skies overnight with winds decreasing to around 5 mph or near calm across much of the area. Lows tonight are closest to the National Blend of Models (NBM), ranging from the low to mid 40s from the I-25 corridor eastward to plains of SE Colorado to the lower to mid 20s in the San Luis Valley and higher terrain.

On Sunday, the closed low will move onshore over southern California with the area remaining in a dry, southwesterly mid-level flow. With a deep layer of dry air across the region, another sunny and dry day can be expected for southeastern Colorado. Relative humidity values will drop into the single digits in the afternoon for the I-25 corridor and eastward and into the lower teens for the San Luis Valley. This very dry air paired with winds around 15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph for the San Luis Valley and downsloping areas of the Rampart Range and Wet Mountains has led to an upgrade of the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for The San Luis Valley, northern El Paso County, and Pueblo County. Southern El Paso County is marginally below Red Flag Warning (RFW) criteria for winds so will no fire weather products for this area at this time, but a RFW might be needed in a future package.

Sunday will be even warmer for high temps with the forecast closest to the NBM. Highs will range from the mid to upper 80s in the SE Plains to the lower 80s for the I-25 corridor to the lower 70s for the San Luis Valley to the 40s and 50s for higher terrain.
/04-Woodrum/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 249 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Sunday night through Tuesday...

Models have been trending with the propagation of the major shortwave trough upstream to move through quicker on Monday through Tuesday over the area. This will allow for the winds to increase ahead of a bora front that looks to push through the area by later in the evening on Monday. The combination of the strong and gusty winds, along with very dry air (single digit RH values) already in place that will further dry out as downsloping winds adiabatically warm, will result in widespread critical fire weather conditions that will begin over the plains by as early as late morning and continue through into the evening hours. There will also be critical fire weather conditions over the San Luis Valley, which will be starting by a little later in the afternoon hours and should wind down by by early evening, given that RH values will be more marginal and closer to the threshold. There will also be snow beginning over the ContDvd that will expand eastward across the rest of the higher terrain throughout the evening and into the morning on Tuesday.
Highs on Monday with the low pressure system advancing closer will be notably cooler over the plains, although still slightly above the seasonal temperature for this time of year.

As the associated low pressure continues to move out over the plains and progress eastward, there will be some wrap around moisture that could provide some precip (mainly in the form of rain but perhaps a rain/snow mix for elevations above 6000 ft) over the plains, although it looks to be very brief and isolated as the low will be moving quickly away from the region, and the best chances will be over the Palmer Divide. On the backside of the low, winds will also continue to be strong and gusty out of the northwest, although there will be cooler temperatures and slightly higher RH values for the plains, and therefore any fire weather concerns during the afternoon will be more confined to only the southern I-25 corridor, where there will be better downsloping winds in place. Any lingering showers will come to an end by later in the day as high pressure temporarily builds back in before the next secondary wave upstream approaches. Highest snowfall totals are expected for the central mountains, mainly the northern Sawatch Range, where there might eventually need to be winter highlights in place.

Wednesday through Friday...

There is still some uncertainty with the models in terms of the progression of a secondary and tertiary wave embedded within the longwave trough. Chances of precip look to remain over the region throughout this period in the forecast, and ensembles express that a majority of any precip will stay more confined over the northern half of Colorado. For us here in southeast Colorado, the main concern will continue to be fire weather conditions continuing on through Friday. For the plains, there will be more widespread critical fire weather conditions on Wednesday afternoon through early evening over the southeast plains. For the San Luis Valley, fire weather looks to be more widespread on Thursday during the afternoon, but then more spotty on Friday. The plains will continue to remain mostly dry, although a cold front moving through by later on Wednesday will help to suppress fire weather concerns over this area for Thursday and Friday, as winds will be northeasterly, and therefore cooler with higher RH values. The overall temperature trend shows a slight cooldown each day towards the end of next week, with highs expected to be below the seasonal average for the plains both Thursday and Friday. -Stewey

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1128 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

KCOS and KPUB...North winds will become light overnight before shifting around from the south to southeast at both terminals with gusts up to 20 to 25 kts in the afternoon. Winds will decrease with light drainage winds from the north developing overnight.

KALS will see southwest winds increase again on Sunday with gusts up to 25 kts in the afternoon. Winds will decrease around 02z and remain light and southerly overnight. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ224-226- 228.
Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for COZ224.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for COZ222-226>237.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KAFF USAF ACADEMY AFLD,CO 15 sm64 minN 1110 smClear39°F23°F52%30.08
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