Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Palmer Lake, CO

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 140 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating increasing southwest flow aloft across the region, with a short wave trough lifting out across the Eastern Great Basin at this time.
Regional radars has the last of northeastern Colorado convection moving into northwest Kansas, with low level moisture and easterly outflow from previous storms backing across the plains at this time.
Current dew pts in the 50s to around 60F are in place across the plains, save for the southern I-25 corridor with dew pts in the 20s in Walsenburg (K4V1) and Trinidad (KTAD), where westerlies are still prevailing. Further west, dew pts are in the teens, 20s and 30s, with a noticeable increase in available moisture across the Desert SW and into the Eastern Great Basin ahead of the short wave. Regional satellite imagery does indicate increasing mid and upper level moisture into south central Colorado, with some stratus developing across portions of the plains.

For today into tonight...southwest flow continues to increase across the region as the Eastern Great Basin shortwave continues to lift out across the Northern Rockies later tonight. Increasing mid and upper level moisture and some uvv from the passing wave will help to develop isolated to scattered showers and storms late this morning into the late afternoon, with the best coverage across the southern mtns into the Raton Mesa and southeast plains. Model soundings do indicate inverted V soundings, as low level moisture mixes out across the plains, owning to mainly virga and gusty winds expected with most storms. However, further east, generally north and east of a Eads to Kim line, HRRR is indicating mean CAPE 800-1500 j/kg supporting the potential for a strong/severe storm with strong wind gusts to over 60 mph and marginally severe hail the main threats. Gusty southwest winds of 25 to 45 mph develop across the region through the late morning and afternoon, leading to a hodgepodge of Red Flag Warnings, based on current fuel conditions, however, we have added the San Luis Valley into the Red Flag Warning for today, as their fuel status was downgraded to "critical" on Monday. With the expected convective cloud cover, we did temper NBM highs a tad for today, which better matches other statistical guidance.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 140 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Wednesday-Thursday...Moderate westerly flow remains progged across the region on Wednesday, as another short wave translates across the Northern Rockies, with said passing wave sending a cold front across the plains on Thursday. Models remain consistent with dry air in place across the region both days, with breezy westerly winds on Wednesday leading to possible meteorological Critical Fire Weather conditions across portions of the area once again, though have left current Fire Weather Watch in tact for areas where fuels are deemed critical. Highs on Wednesday to remain some 10 degrees above seasonal levels, however did once again lower NBM a tad. Passing wave Wednesday night sends a dry front across the plains, leading to near seasonal temperatures across the plains on Thursday, with continued above seasonal highs across the western half of the district.

Latest model data supports modest westerly flow across the region through the early weekend, leading to at and above seasonal temperatures in place across the region. Model data does support a slow increase in available moisture across the plains, with increasing chances of afternoon showers and storms, mainly across the eastern mtns and plains for Friday and Saturday. Stronger passing systems across the Northern Tier will bring cooler and more unsettled weather to the region Sunday into early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1055 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Increasing low level moisture on easterly to southeast winds at KCOS and KPUB will lead to the potential for stratus.
Confidence is still low, but high enough now to warrant a Tempo group for both KCOS and KPUB in the 07z to 12z window. It could last a little longer at KPUB. However by 14-15z winds will shift from the south to southwest and become gusty at both terminals, sweeping out any MVFR cloudiness that may have developed. Gusts up to 35 to 40 kts will be possible at both sites until 02z as winds lighten and become more southerly.

KALS will see enhanced southerly winds around 10 kts all night under variable VFR cloud cover. Winds will increase early Tuesday morning with southwest winds gusting up to 40 kts in the afternoon. Winds will tail down after 02z but remain breezy from the south with gusts up to 25 kts. -KT

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 140 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Meteorological Critical Fire Weather Conditions are expected across most of south central and southeast Colorado on Tuesday and Wednesday, as drier air mixes across the region within breezy southwest flow aloft. There remains a hodgepodge of Red Flag Warnings across the district today, based on latest fuel status, though we have added the San Luis Valley to today's warning, as fuel status was downgraded to "critical" on Monday afternoon. In addition, we can't rule out a few fire starts from lighting, with isolated to scattered high based storms this afternoon, with the best coverage across the southern mtns into the southern I-25 Corridor. We have left the Fire Weather Watch in tact for Wednesday afternoon, as we have the most confidence in rh conditions being reached, however winds, especially across the eastern portions of the district may be marginal.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for COZ222>224-228>231-234>236.
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ222-224-228>231-235.