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FXUS65 KREV 082129 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 129 PM PST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS

A rather quiet weather pattern is on tap this weekend into next week with seasonably cool conditions and only low end precipitation chances near the Oregon border. There are signals for a winter storm to potentially impact the region around the Dec 16-18 time frame.

DISCUSSION

* A cool and dry start to the weekend with temperatures near to below normal. A ridge overhead and plenty of cold air at the surface will keep inversions in place. Anticipate freezing fog formation overnight into the morning hours in the Sierra and Martis Valleys. Surface winds will generally be light and north to northeasterly.

* The next item of interest will be a passing shortwave late Sunday into Monday, which brings a 15-25% chance for light showers near the Oregon border per blended guidance. This will also bring an increase in winds aloft and should help to mix out inversions, leading to high temps 4-8 degrees above normal on Sunday. A secondary wave follows right behind, pushing a dry backdoor front into the region. This brings the return of near normal temps with northeast to east breezes aloft.

* And now for what many of you are waiting for...a chance at a winter storm. Ensemble cluster analysis all indicate a deep area of low pressure off the CA coast around the Dec 16-17 time frame. The question at this point is where the low moves inland, with roughly 60% of ensemble members currently in a favorable location for wet weather into the Sierra and potentially western Nevada as well. Both the EPS and GEFS IVT probabilities are increasing between 35-40N, which is a good sign, but again, it's all how the system moves in and the subsequent trajectory of the moisture. For now, plan on winds increasing going into the following weekend and the potential for winter travel, especially in the Sierra. Stay tuned for updates! -Dawn

AVIATION

* Lighter winds and dry conditions will be in place for the remainder of the weekend. Freezing fog has an 85% chance of forming the next several nights at KTRK between 08z-18z.

* Generally NW-N flow aloft with FL100 wind speeds around 15-20 kts.
Winds to become more W-NW aloft on Sunday, increasing in speed, especially near the Oregon border. A few light showers are also possible near the Oregon border Sunday-Monday, a 15-25% chance.
Clouds associated with these showers are likely to obscure terrain. -Dawn

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

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