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FXUS61 KRLX 080120 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 820 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure brings dry/milder weather through Saturday. Next system arrives Saturday night through early Monday. Drier to start next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 815 PM Thursday...

Low temps and winds were decreased for some valleys, as we're seeing signs that some areas are decoupling from the stronger winds aloft. Unsure if this may result in fog around Elkins or a few of the other more protected valleys, but a 'sunrise surprise' fog isn't out of the question. However, confidence was too low to include it in the forecast at present. Otherwise, the forecast appears to be on track.

As of 1240 PM Thursday...

Ridging aloft will build over the area through Friday. With surface high pressure building south and east of the region, expect dry weather, with southwesterly winds. The winds could be persistent enough to effect temperatures tonight. NBM guidance is higher with the lows tonight than the MAV and the MET. With the winds, this seems like a good bet in the lowlands, but unsure if the winds will be strong enough to prevent mixing in the deeper mountain valleys.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 100 PM Thursday...

Low pressure will move northeast into the Great Lakes region on Saturday, with a cold front associated with the low approaching our region, eventually moving through the area on Sunday. Multiple waves of low pressure will develop and move northeast along the front during the period, enhancing the precipitation at times, along with anomalously high PWs transported to the region on strengthening low level winds. Area is highlighted in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. There will also be the possibility for a few rumbles of thunder during the period.

Frontal boundary will gradually move east on Sunday, with slightly falling or near steady temperatures depending on timing of front.
Precipitation will transition to snow by Sunday evening across the mountains and overnight across the lowlands, with light accumulations expected across the mountains. Will add this to the HWO, as winter weather advisory headlines may be possible in the Sunday night/early Monday time frame.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 1115 AM Thursday...

Precipitation will gradually start to taper off on Monday as the system pulls east of the area. Enough cold air should be in place during this time for the possibility of light snow showers early Monday, particularly in favored upslope areas. However, any snow shower activity across the lowlands looks to be brief thereby limiting potential for accumulations, as drier air aloft quickly takes hold, with precipitation possibly ending as a drizzle. High pressure will then build into the area for the remainder of the period, with dry and near normal temperatures.

AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 635 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions can be expected through the period, with southwesterly winds, which will be lighter overnight and pick up a bit again Friday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: If deeper mountain valleys can decouple tonight, then LLWS could become an issue at EKN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE FRI UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers Saturday night into Sunday.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

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