Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Milford, WV
December 10, 2023 2:20 AM EST (07:20 UTC)
Sunrise 7:28AM Sunset 4:59PM Moonrise 5:03AM Moonset 3:07PM
Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 100651 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 151 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
Strong system crosses overnight through early Monday, with the cold front crossing Sunday morning. High pressure then dominates for much of the new work week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 115 AM Sunday...
The overnight forecast is on track with the waning chance for thunder. One wave pushed a slug of modestly heavy rainfall through southeast Ohio late Saturday while another will do likewise across southeast portions of the forecast area through early this Sunday morning. These rainfall amounts will be manageable, with lesser amounts in between.
Maintained higher PoPs into Sunday night in upslope snow in and near the mountains, with mountain snow amounts a bit higher based on the latest WPC QPF.
As of 1010 PM Saturday...
Temperatures were staying a bit high compared with the forecast therefore fixed them up slightly to better represent current observations and trends. Also, did away with probability of thunderstorms for the early morning since activity is very minimal even at this point. Outside that the forecast remains on track.
As of 600 PM Saturday...
The main forecast is on track and only had to modify POPs slightly to account for newer guidance and current observations and trends.
As of 225 PM Saturday...
Key Points: * Showers and a few thunderstorms develop across the area today.
* Cold front crosses tonight into early Sunday.
* Cooler, with lingering precipitation behind the front.
* A transition from rain to snow begins Sunday evening.
A cold front is currently approaching from the west. Scattered showers should continue to develop ahead of the front this afternoon and evening. The presence of a strong jet may also support a few isolated thunderstorms today. More robust showers are then expected as the front crosses tonight into early Sunday morning. Precipitation coverage gradually lessens from west to east behind the front, though additional showers remain a possibility, particularly along and near the mountains, during the day Sunday due to lingering moisture and a shortwave shifting east overhead.
QPF amounts between 0.75 and 1 inch are likely for much of the area by the end of the day Sunday. Highest rainfall amounts are expected to accrue along the mountains.
After above normal temperatures today into tonight, colder air flows into the area in the wake of the front during the day Sunday.
This should allow precipitation to start transitioning from rain to snow or a rain/snow mix - at least along the mountains - Sunday evening.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 150 AM Sunday...
The short term period opens up at the tail end of the system that promotes mountain snow for Sunday night into Monday morning. Showers become contained along the higher terrain by daybreak Monday as the parent low tracks into New England and takes the bulk of moisture eastward. Post-frontal west/northwest flow will continue to produce upslope snow showers in the morning along the northeast WV mountains, but comes to an end by the afternoon as low level flow backs out of the southwest.
Ongoing breezy lower elevation and strong mountain wind gusts will gradually taper down in a similar trend on Monday as the pressure gradient relaxes over the Central Appalachians.
This portion of the event will contribute a half an inch to an inch of snow before wrapping up. This remains in line with the current expiration time of 18Z Monday for the Winter Weather Advisory.
High pressure at the surface moseys on in from the southwest Monday night into Tuesday as flow aloft becomes more zonal. This will denote the start of a dry spell that will encompass much of the work week. Temperatures during this time will bottom out into the teens/20s Tuesday morning before aforementioned southwest flow yields a slight recovery into the upper 40s/low 50s for the lowlands in the afternoon.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 150 AM Sunday...
Strong subsidence from nearly zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure rules the roost through Friday night. During which time, expect dry weather with highs around their climatological normal for this time of year. Mostly clear skies will yield sufficient radiational cooling each night, promoting colder than normal low temperatures each morning through the work week.
Models stray from agreement beyond Friday in regards to the weekend forecast. While active weather looks probable once again, timing and location of precipitation varies between the global models, so held onto central guidance with this issuance.
This solution portrays rain sailing back into the southern coalfields for the second half of the day Saturday into the concluding hours of the valid forecast period.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 115 AM Sunday...
A wavy cold front will bring MVFR conditions in rain showers overnight into Sunday morning. Brief IFR visibility is possible in a heavier shower. The chance for thunder overnight is limited to areas east of the Ohio River, and waning.
Rain showers will continue behind the wavy front early Sunday morning, when ceilings will lower to MVFR in ernest, with VFR visibility a bit more persistent, and IFR visibility at times in and near the mountains.
The cold front crosses the Ohio River around 10Z, CRW and CKB around 12Z, and the mountains 14-15Z.
Conditions will improve Sunday afternoon as rain showers taper off, with visibility improving to VFR, and ceilings improving to VFR at times, at least along the Ohio River. MVFR ceilings should settle in in ernest across the lowlands Sunday night.
The mountains are not likely to see much if any improvement Sunday afternoon, with IFR visibility in rain showers more persistent there. Rain showers will change to snow showers in the mountains toward 00Z Monday with fluctuating visibility and ceilings, although ceilings at BKW are likely to be predominately IFR through Sunday night.
Light south to southwest flow overnight will become west behind the cold front Sunday morning, briefly gusty with the frontal passage, and then gusty from the northwest Sunday night to 15 to 20 kts. Moderate to strong south to southwest flow aloft was likely causing low level wind shear overnight east of the Ohio River, which will vanish once the front passes Sunday morning, as flow aloft become light west to southwest, and then light northwest late Sunday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings and visibility will fluctuate with the frontal passage through Sunday morning. Improvement Sunday afternoon may vary, before MVFR stratocumulus settles in in ernest Sunday night, with IFR stratus in the mountains, at least at BKW, There could be brief, strong wind gusts with a shower overnight, and with the frontal passage Sunday morning. Gusty winds late Sunday and Sunday night will fluctuate.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 12/10/23 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY L L M H M H H H M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H M H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H M L L EKN CONSISTENCY H M M L M M M L L H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M L H H H M H H H H M
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR restrictions possible in snow showers along the mountains overnight Sunday night into Monday.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for WVZ522-523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 151 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
Strong system crosses overnight through early Monday, with the cold front crossing Sunday morning. High pressure then dominates for much of the new work week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 115 AM Sunday...
The overnight forecast is on track with the waning chance for thunder. One wave pushed a slug of modestly heavy rainfall through southeast Ohio late Saturday while another will do likewise across southeast portions of the forecast area through early this Sunday morning. These rainfall amounts will be manageable, with lesser amounts in between.
Maintained higher PoPs into Sunday night in upslope snow in and near the mountains, with mountain snow amounts a bit higher based on the latest WPC QPF.
As of 1010 PM Saturday...
Temperatures were staying a bit high compared with the forecast therefore fixed them up slightly to better represent current observations and trends. Also, did away with probability of thunderstorms for the early morning since activity is very minimal even at this point. Outside that the forecast remains on track.
As of 600 PM Saturday...
The main forecast is on track and only had to modify POPs slightly to account for newer guidance and current observations and trends.
As of 225 PM Saturday...
Key Points: * Showers and a few thunderstorms develop across the area today.
* Cold front crosses tonight into early Sunday.
* Cooler, with lingering precipitation behind the front.
* A transition from rain to snow begins Sunday evening.
A cold front is currently approaching from the west. Scattered showers should continue to develop ahead of the front this afternoon and evening. The presence of a strong jet may also support a few isolated thunderstorms today. More robust showers are then expected as the front crosses tonight into early Sunday morning. Precipitation coverage gradually lessens from west to east behind the front, though additional showers remain a possibility, particularly along and near the mountains, during the day Sunday due to lingering moisture and a shortwave shifting east overhead.
QPF amounts between 0.75 and 1 inch are likely for much of the area by the end of the day Sunday. Highest rainfall amounts are expected to accrue along the mountains.
After above normal temperatures today into tonight, colder air flows into the area in the wake of the front during the day Sunday.
This should allow precipitation to start transitioning from rain to snow or a rain/snow mix - at least along the mountains - Sunday evening.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 150 AM Sunday...
The short term period opens up at the tail end of the system that promotes mountain snow for Sunday night into Monday morning. Showers become contained along the higher terrain by daybreak Monday as the parent low tracks into New England and takes the bulk of moisture eastward. Post-frontal west/northwest flow will continue to produce upslope snow showers in the morning along the northeast WV mountains, but comes to an end by the afternoon as low level flow backs out of the southwest.
Ongoing breezy lower elevation and strong mountain wind gusts will gradually taper down in a similar trend on Monday as the pressure gradient relaxes over the Central Appalachians.
This portion of the event will contribute a half an inch to an inch of snow before wrapping up. This remains in line with the current expiration time of 18Z Monday for the Winter Weather Advisory.
High pressure at the surface moseys on in from the southwest Monday night into Tuesday as flow aloft becomes more zonal. This will denote the start of a dry spell that will encompass much of the work week. Temperatures during this time will bottom out into the teens/20s Tuesday morning before aforementioned southwest flow yields a slight recovery into the upper 40s/low 50s for the lowlands in the afternoon.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 150 AM Sunday...
Strong subsidence from nearly zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure rules the roost through Friday night. During which time, expect dry weather with highs around their climatological normal for this time of year. Mostly clear skies will yield sufficient radiational cooling each night, promoting colder than normal low temperatures each morning through the work week.
Models stray from agreement beyond Friday in regards to the weekend forecast. While active weather looks probable once again, timing and location of precipitation varies between the global models, so held onto central guidance with this issuance.
This solution portrays rain sailing back into the southern coalfields for the second half of the day Saturday into the concluding hours of the valid forecast period.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 115 AM Sunday...
A wavy cold front will bring MVFR conditions in rain showers overnight into Sunday morning. Brief IFR visibility is possible in a heavier shower. The chance for thunder overnight is limited to areas east of the Ohio River, and waning.
Rain showers will continue behind the wavy front early Sunday morning, when ceilings will lower to MVFR in ernest, with VFR visibility a bit more persistent, and IFR visibility at times in and near the mountains.
The cold front crosses the Ohio River around 10Z, CRW and CKB around 12Z, and the mountains 14-15Z.
Conditions will improve Sunday afternoon as rain showers taper off, with visibility improving to VFR, and ceilings improving to VFR at times, at least along the Ohio River. MVFR ceilings should settle in in ernest across the lowlands Sunday night.
The mountains are not likely to see much if any improvement Sunday afternoon, with IFR visibility in rain showers more persistent there. Rain showers will change to snow showers in the mountains toward 00Z Monday with fluctuating visibility and ceilings, although ceilings at BKW are likely to be predominately IFR through Sunday night.
Light south to southwest flow overnight will become west behind the cold front Sunday morning, briefly gusty with the frontal passage, and then gusty from the northwest Sunday night to 15 to 20 kts. Moderate to strong south to southwest flow aloft was likely causing low level wind shear overnight east of the Ohio River, which will vanish once the front passes Sunday morning, as flow aloft become light west to southwest, and then light northwest late Sunday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings and visibility will fluctuate with the frontal passage through Sunday morning. Improvement Sunday afternoon may vary, before MVFR stratocumulus settles in in ernest Sunday night, with IFR stratus in the mountains, at least at BKW, There could be brief, strong wind gusts with a shower overnight, and with the frontal passage Sunday morning. Gusty winds late Sunday and Sunday night will fluctuate.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 12/10/23 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY L L M H M H H H M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H M H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H M L L EKN CONSISTENCY H M M L M M M L L H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M L H H H M H H H H M
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR restrictions possible in snow showers along the mountains overnight Sunday night into Monday.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for WVZ522-523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCKB NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA,WV | 15 sm | 27 min | SSW 13 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 63°F | 52°F | 68% | 29.86 |
Wind History from CKB
(wind in knots)
Pittsburgh, PA,
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