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FXUS61 KRLX 281801 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 101 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure brings dry conditions moderating temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. Rain returns area wide on Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 1240 PM Tuesday...

Lingering stratocu this afternoon will gradually diminish this evening as low level thermal trof lifts out. Surface high will slide through the TN Valley tonight and into the Carolinas Wednesday. While this will be the coldest night of the season thus far, was hesitant to stray from guidance in the usual cold spots given position the of the high and perhaps a lingering stir in the boundary layer. I did, however, lower numbers a bit across the northern mountain valleys where some minor snow accumulations occurred today where some high singe digits are within reach.

There was some consideration of hoisting a wind chill advisory for this afternoon and overnight across the high elevation mountain zones, but elected not to given the forecast apparent temperature are marginal and the belief that guidance is overdoing the winds thus far given the obs/webcams at Snowshoe.

A warm front in the mid/low levels will cross Wednesday morning with perhaps a thin band of clouds Otherwise, expect sunny conditions and a nice rebound from the morning lows though still several degrees below normal.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 100 PM Tuesday...

Dry, with gradually moderating temperatures Wednesday night through Thursday night, with warmer temperatures expected Thursday night/Friday morning as of late with increased cloud cover and winds across the area, in advance of the next system, which will affect the area on Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 1150 AM Tuesday...

Precipitation returns to the area on Friday, mainly in the form of rain, as low pressure moves northeastward towards the region.
Initial shortwave moves east on Friday, with overall drier conditions on Saturday, although light precipitation and cloud cover may continue to linger across the area. Weather becomes more uncertain Sunday onward, but appears as though there is potential for a secondary wave of low pressure that will develop and move east through the area, bringing rain, and mountain rain and snow showers to the area.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1250 PM Tuesday...

Occasional MVFR conditions in flurries will continue this afternoon for CKB and EKN with generally scattered MVFR stratocu elsewhere. Any lingering clouds this evening across northern terminals will dissipate as clearing occurs and VFR conditions take hold. VFR conditions continue Wednesday with general CAVU expected.

Gusty westerly winds this afternoon will gradually weaken this into evening, then winds become light and turn southerly overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and intensity of restrictions in flurries at CKB/EKN may vary from the forecast this afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in rain, fog and stratus as a front moves through Friday into Saturday.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

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