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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wilkesville, OH

June 25, 2024 2:03 PM EDT (18:03 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 9:00 PM
Moonrise 11:11 PM   Moonset 8:45 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilkesville, OH
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Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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306 FXUS61 KRLX 251731 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 131 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
Warmer today. Chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and with a cold front Wednesday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday with another cold front.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 1235 PM Tuesday...

Convection from weakening MCS over the midwest this morning is moving into the area. So far much of this has remained sub severe, and bulk of any severe is still anticipated to remain to our west. Latest SPC outlook for day 1 still has just a few of our SE Ohio counties in a marginal, and this seems reasonable given latest trends.

Otherwise, should be a bit of a lull in the activity later this evening and the first part of tonight, however, convection looks to reinvigorate overnight across the north out ahead of a cold front and passing shortwave. This should affect our northern zones late tonight/early Wednesday morning. Severe threat with this activity looks to be rather low at this point, but not a non zero risk, and heavy rain is expected.

After the Wednesday morning activity, showers and storms will redevelop again during the afternoon and evening hours out ahead of an approaching mid level shortwave trough and the aforementioned cold front. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, with a damaging wind threat, possibly a small tornado threat also, and much of this activity looks to develop towards the end of the near term, and into the short term period. However, there still remains uncertainty as to any effects morning convection will play in the severity of afternoon storms.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 225 AM Tuesday...

A cold front and an upper level trough will bring showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday into Wednesday night. Models still differ on the handling of prefrontal energy and precipitation.
This prefrontal convection could be critical to whether enough energy builds for severe weather. MesoNAM soundings showing many soundings with over 2000 effective layer CAPE with some dry air in the mid levels and freezing levels of 13000 to 13500. This indicates a good potential for damaging winds and large hail, if the prefrontal energy allows for sufficient heating.

Some models indicate enough remaining moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the mountains on Thursday, while others indicate a drier solution. Will keep some small mountain POPs, with a bit better chances in Virginia. More seasonable temperatures will return for Thursday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 225 AM Tuesday...

With a high pressure system shifting off to the east on Friday, temperatures will again climb back above normal for this time of year. A few mountain showers and thunderstorms are once again possible, although most of the region will remain dry.

A southerly wind flow and an approaching cold front will increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms area wide on Saturday. Models have a cold front pushing through Saturday night or Sunday, with continued differences in timing between the models.

More seasonable air can once again be expected on Monday behind the cold front. Once again, some models indicate enough remaining moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the mountains on Monday, while others indicate a drier solution.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 125 PM Tuesday...

Showers and storms, mainly north and along the Ohio River through 23Z, with brief MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty winds.
Otherwise, most areas should remain precipitation free and VFR through around 06Z, when the potential for additional showers and storms will exist, and linger through at least 15Z. These storms will contain heavy downpours, and produce brief/localized MVFR/IFR conditions.

After 15Z, should see a brief lull in convective activity, but storms will redevelop Wednesday evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers and thunderstorms could be more numerous and cover more locations than advertised this afternoon. In addition, showers and storms overnight may be greater in coverage than currently advertised.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday night, and again on Saturday.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KUNI OHIO UNIVERSITY,OH 7 sm8 minS 0710 smClear86°F57°F38%29.96
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