Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wilkesville, OH
May 20, 2024 4:56 AM EDT (08:56 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:08 AM Sunset 8:41 PM Moonrise 5:05 PM Moonset 3:27 AM |
FXUS61 KRLX 200644 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 244 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
A high pressure system will provide hot and mostly dry weather into midweek. A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday and Thursday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 200 AM Monday...
Large bubble of strong high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard under a stout mid-level ridge keeping us dry for the near-term.
Expecting river valley fog to materialize due to the region decoupling. Fog could be dense in spots, particularly for the most sheltered valleys with poor drainage winds.
Fog will lift and dissipate shortly after sunrise this morning, giving way to mostly clear skies, until afternoon when scattered cumulus dot the sky with peak heating. Temperatures are expected to be above normal today with upper 80s across portions of the lowlands, some of the usual hot spots may even see 90 degrees.
There is a chance or an isolated shower or thunderstorm across the mountains this afternoon. This activity may spawn from peak heating and converging flow along the higher elevations from a weak trough within the ridge pattern. Anything that does form will not maintain longevity with weak surface flow installed across the area with this strong high pressure system.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 235 AM Monday...
A high pressure system will provide for mostly dry weather on Tuesday, although a couple of afternoon showers or thunderstorms can not be ruled out in the northern and central West Virginia mountains. Afternoon temperatures will be well above normal for this time of year, with some lowland locations hitting 90 degrees.
The warm weather will continue on Wednesday. A southerly wind in advance of the next system will increase moisture across the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. This will allow for an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms.
A cold front will then push through the area on Thursday, providing additional showers and thunderstorms along with more seasonable temperatures.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 235 AM Monday...
A cold front will stall just south of the area on Friday. An upper level short wave will then interact with the front and cause a surface wave to move along the front. Models do have some differences in the timing and location of wave, leading to a lower confidence in forecast details. Confidence in the forecast drops even more on Sunday, as model solutions further diverge.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 100 AM Monday...
VFR conditions outside of patchy river valley fog that is likely to develop this morning as most locations across the area have already decoupled. Restrictions will likely occur at CKB/CRW/EKN/PKB and these restrictions will vary, but IFR/LIFR is the most likely category, particularly for the most sheltered valleys (i.e CRW/EKN).
Overall, fog coverage and density will be less expansive and intense than it was last night. Any fog that develops will lift/dissipate between ~11-1230Z this morning, with the sheltered valleys holding it to the latter end of the range.
Widespread VFR expected today once fog lifts. Skies will be speckled with CU fields this afternoon due to diurnal heating.
There is a chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm across the mountains this afternoon, but all sites in this region look to remain out of the probability at this time.
Surface flow will remain calm through the morning. Light and variable surface flow is expected at all sites today.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, coverage, and intensity of fog formation tonight could vary from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 05/20/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M L M M M M M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L L H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible with river valley fog or low stratus Tuesday morning, then again with showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday and Thursday with a cold front.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 244 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
A high pressure system will provide hot and mostly dry weather into midweek. A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday and Thursday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 200 AM Monday...
Large bubble of strong high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard under a stout mid-level ridge keeping us dry for the near-term.
Expecting river valley fog to materialize due to the region decoupling. Fog could be dense in spots, particularly for the most sheltered valleys with poor drainage winds.
Fog will lift and dissipate shortly after sunrise this morning, giving way to mostly clear skies, until afternoon when scattered cumulus dot the sky with peak heating. Temperatures are expected to be above normal today with upper 80s across portions of the lowlands, some of the usual hot spots may even see 90 degrees.
There is a chance or an isolated shower or thunderstorm across the mountains this afternoon. This activity may spawn from peak heating and converging flow along the higher elevations from a weak trough within the ridge pattern. Anything that does form will not maintain longevity with weak surface flow installed across the area with this strong high pressure system.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 235 AM Monday...
A high pressure system will provide for mostly dry weather on Tuesday, although a couple of afternoon showers or thunderstorms can not be ruled out in the northern and central West Virginia mountains. Afternoon temperatures will be well above normal for this time of year, with some lowland locations hitting 90 degrees.
The warm weather will continue on Wednesday. A southerly wind in advance of the next system will increase moisture across the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. This will allow for an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms.
A cold front will then push through the area on Thursday, providing additional showers and thunderstorms along with more seasonable temperatures.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 235 AM Monday...
A cold front will stall just south of the area on Friday. An upper level short wave will then interact with the front and cause a surface wave to move along the front. Models do have some differences in the timing and location of wave, leading to a lower confidence in forecast details. Confidence in the forecast drops even more on Sunday, as model solutions further diverge.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 100 AM Monday...
VFR conditions outside of patchy river valley fog that is likely to develop this morning as most locations across the area have already decoupled. Restrictions will likely occur at CKB/CRW/EKN/PKB and these restrictions will vary, but IFR/LIFR is the most likely category, particularly for the most sheltered valleys (i.e CRW/EKN).
Overall, fog coverage and density will be less expansive and intense than it was last night. Any fog that develops will lift/dissipate between ~11-1230Z this morning, with the sheltered valleys holding it to the latter end of the range.
Widespread VFR expected today once fog lifts. Skies will be speckled with CU fields this afternoon due to diurnal heating.
There is a chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm across the mountains this afternoon, but all sites in this region look to remain out of the probability at this time.
Surface flow will remain calm through the morning. Light and variable surface flow is expected at all sites today.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, coverage, and intensity of fog formation tonight could vary from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 05/20/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M L M M M M M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L L H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible with river valley fog or low stratus Tuesday morning, then again with showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday and Thursday with a cold front.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KUNI OHIO UNIVERSITY,OH | 7 sm | 21 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 55°F | 54°F | 94% | 29.97 |
Charleston, WV,
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