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FXUS66 KSTO 282103 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 103 PM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

Synopsis
Dry weather continues today. A few showers will be possible tonight into Wednesday morning. Shower and mountain snow chances increase later in the week.

Discussion
Latest GOES-West visible satellite imagery illustrates mostly sunny skies being observed across interior Northern California on this Tuesday afternoon. Current temperature observations are in the 50s to 60s in the Valley and foothills, and in the 40s to 50s in the mountains. Mild temperatures, dry conditions, light winds, and mostly sunny skies will continue through the afternoon. The Freeze Warning expired at 9 AM PST this morning, and will be the last Freeze Warning of the season for 32 degrees, as widespread freezing temperatures have been observed in the Valley for this cold event. Hard Freeze Warnings for temperatures 28 degrees and below may still be issued if needed.

Low temperatures are expected to increase slightly tonight, as cloud cover will help limit overnight cooling, however temperatures will still be chilly. This cloud cover is associated with a low offshore that will weaken and move southeastward, as the upper level ridge continues to shift to the east. Shower chances will also be associated with this low, tonight into Wednesday. Minimal precipitation is expected with this system. The best chances for light precipitation are over the Coastal Range, Delta, and western Valley locations tonight into Wednesday morning.

Precipitation chances increase later in the week as a more unsettled weather pattern sets up over the region. A quick hitting system is expected late Thursday into early Friday, and then another round of precipitation moves in starting Friday afternoon. Best chances for precipitation are over the mountain and foothill locations. The National Blend of Models (NBM) shows a 35 to 65 percent probability of a quarter of an inch of rain or greater Thursday through Friday night in the mountains and foothills, and a 10 to 30 percent probability in the Valley. The NBM also suggests a 20 to 60 percent probability of 6 inches of snow or greater over the same timeframe in the mountains. Snow levels will start off around 4500-5500 feet Thursday, and lower to around 3500-4500 feet Friday morning, then come up to around 4000-5000 feet later in the day. Shower and mountain snow chances continue over the weekend. Be sure to check the forecast and road conditions before heading out the door, especially if you have mountain travel plans! //KH

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)...
Ensembles and clusters indicate that broad trough continues over the western half of the US Saturday. This will keep a few showers over NorCal mainly over the mountains, where up to 0.25 of liquid and 2-3 inches of snow will be possible. Ridge begins building into the region from the eastern Pacific Sunday with diminishing precip chances. The exception is over the Coast Range and Shasta county which will be on south edge moist northwest flow focused over the PacNW with 0.25-0.35 liquid precip possible. Ridge will amplify Monday and Tuesday with dry and warmer weather returning.
A quick moving system may bring more unsettled weather Wednesday.

AVIATION
VFR conditions are expected over interior NorCal for the next 24 hours. Surface winds will generally be below 12 kts.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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