Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Penn Valley, CA

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Penn Valley, CA

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Area Discussion for - Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 081022 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 322 AM PDT Thu Jun 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
Afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances each day, mainly over the mountains. Near to below average temperatures.

DISCUSSION
Satellite imagery shows some passing clouds across interior northern CA early this morning. Current temperatures are running a few degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago, with upper 50 to low 60s across the southern Sacramento and northern San Joaquin valleys and mid to upper 60s across the northern Sacramento Valley. Highs this afternoon will peak in the low to mid 80s for the Valley.

Upper low will continue to weaken and shift eastward today, but enough moisture and instability will be in place to trigger convection. HRRR and Hi-Res guidance favor thunderstorm development over the mountains, northeast foothills, and the northern Sacramento Valley this afternoon and evening. HRRR probabilities of 0.50" in 1 hour (25-55%) favor the Sierra, southern Cascades and western Shasta County. Primary impacts associated with thunderstorms will be heavy rain, hail, gusty winds, and lightning. Shower and thunderstorm activity may persist into the overnight hours across portions of Shasta County and the northeast foothills.

Decreasing thunderstorm coverage is expected Friday as westerly flow increases, with the latest NBM advertising 15-30% thunderstorm chances over the Sierra and portions of Shasta County. Ensemble means in good agreement that another eastern Pacific trough drops southeast and deepens into an upper low this weekend and into early next week. This will result in increased thunderstorm coverage, with the easterly component of the main steering flow bringing thunderstorm chances into the foothills and possibly the northern Sacramento Valley. The Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) also supports better instability during this timeframe.

High temperatures will warm slightly through the forecast period, but will remain slightly below climatological normals. Expect Valley highs generally in the low to mid 80s.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)...

Ensemble means continue to show an upper low spinning south of the forecast area through early next week. This will result in additional shower and thunderstorm chances, mainly over the mountains. The EFI continues to depict anomalously high instability values through at least Monday. By Tuesday, ensembles depict the upper low weakening and shifting to the east, with decreased thunderstorm chances (15-25%). Below normal daytime temperatures early next week will be followed by near normal temperatures by mid-week.

AVIATION
General VFR conditions expected at TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada, southern Cascades, and portions of the northern Sacramento Valley through 09z Thursday (20-40% probability). The main threats are gusty and erratic winds and lightning expected near thunderstorms, which could impact KRDD and KRBL between 01-06Z Friday. Outside of thunderstorm influences, expect local southerly wind gusts up to 15-20 kts across portions of the Valley through 06Z Friday, and southwesterly up to 25-30 kts in the vicinity of the Delta through 12Z Friday. Periods of SCT/BKN aoa 5 Kft through Thursday.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Port Chicago, CA

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Airport Reports

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Link to 5 minute data for KGOO

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Wind History from GOO (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Sacramento %234, Sacramento River, California

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