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FXUS66 KSTO 102107 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 107 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

Synopsis
Despite cold morning temperatures and areas of frost, quiet and mild weather prevails across interior NorCal through the forecast period.

Areas of high clouds continue over NorCal on GOES-18 West imagery today, though that didn't stop temperatures in the Valley from reaching near to below freezing in many places this morning. High temperatures today will reach the mid to high 50s in the Valley, and 40s to mid 50s in the foothills and mountains.

A weak shortwave trough enveloped in the prevailing northwesterly flow will begin moving over the area tonight, though little to no impacts are expected from it. Despite the trough, temperatures will continue to warm Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the Valley reaching the mid 60s and in the foothills and mountains getting up to the high 50s to low 60s. Low temperatures, however, will stay colder in the low 30s to low 40s. The trough does bring a slight chance of precipitation, specifically in the northwestern portion of Shasta County, though probabilities are low, with a 15-20% chance of isolated showers. Wednesday sees the building of a trough offshore, though the ridge and its associated mild and calm weather are expected to remain in place through the week and into the weekend.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)...
On Thursday, the area will still be under the influence of upper level ridging with dry conditions. Upper level troughing will remain offshore in the Pacific and off the coast through the weekend. Overall weather pattern will remain the same through the weekend, until Sunday when ensembles suggest a weak shortwave to move through the region. The National Blend of Models (NBM)
projects low (20-30%) chances of showers over much of the area, however other ensembles such as the GFS and ECMWF keep the area dry, so there is disagreement on progression of any system moving through and producing rainfall.

Temperatures during the extended look to remain in the upper 50s to low 60s for Valley locations and upper 40s to 50s for higher elevations.

AVIATION
VFR conditions across interior NorCal prevail for the next 24 hours, with isolated MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions expected to develop for Valley locations, mainly from Sacramento south, for BR and FG, Monday from 04z to 18z. Surface winds are expected to be below 12 knots across all TAF sites.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Sacramento, Sacramento River, California, Tide feet

Sacramento #4
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Sun -- 12:57 AM PST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:53 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:36 AM PST     1.99 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:12 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:40 AM PST     0.69 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:56 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:19 PM PST     3.12 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:44 PM PST     Sunset
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Sacramento #4, Sacramento River, California, Tide feet

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