Monday, July13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tolchester, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 8:34PM Monday July 13, 2020 5:31 PM EDT (21:31 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 12:59PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 444 Pm Edt Mon Jul 13 2020
Rest of this afternoon..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Wed..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 444 Pm Edt Mon Jul 13 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A weak front along the atlantic seaboard will push offshore by tonight. High pressure will then build across the area Tuesday and Wednesday before moving offshore. A front may approach from the north late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tolchester CDP, MD
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location: 39.21, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 131936 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 336 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front will continue moving out to sea tonight and Tuesday, with high pressure building in for midweek. A cold front associated with low pressure moving through the Great Lakes region will bring a renewed threat of showers and thunderstorms later Thursday through Friday. High pressure building in from the midwest should then bring increasingly warmer and more humid weather for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. Cold front lies just offshore and surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will continue to build east. Meanwhile, a weak mid-level trough will pivot through the region along with several strong shortwaves.

With a drying north to northwest flow, surface dewpoints are lowering across the region, falling from the upper 60s this morning to the upper 50s/low 60s this afternoon. As a result, as that trough and shortwaves pass through the region this evening, there will not be much moisture for showers. However, both the HRRR and the 12Z NAM showing some light QPF, so will carry slight chance PoPs for northern and southern zones into this evening. Not expecting much, and any possible convection will end shortly after sunset with loss of diurnal heating.

High pressure continues to build east tonight. Skies clear out with departure of trough, and northwest winds become nearly calm.

Lows tonight will be in the 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. Surface high pressure continues to build east and will be centered over western New York and western Pennsylvania in the afternoon. Some troughiness will lie over the Northeast, but the base of the trough will be offshore. Some shortwaves will dive into the base of the trough, moving through northern New Jersey.

With northwest flow over the area, conditions continue to dry out due to the downsloping flow. A pleasant day expected, as surface dewpoints fall into the low to mid 50s, with the lowest dewpoints across the Pine Barrens of New Jersey. Highs generally in the mid to upper 80s, yet some places may touch 90 along and east of the urban corridor.

A backdoor cold front will also approach from the north late, and combined with those shortwaves, some showers and thunderstorms may develop well north of the region. Cannot rule out some more showers south of Delmarva. Will keep the local area dry, however, as dry conditions should prevent showers from developing.

A pleasant summertime day with low humidity.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. A mid-level trough and its associated axis will be exiting the coast late Tuesday afternoon and evening, taking any residual precipitation in the northern portion of the CWA with it. Then mid- level and surface ridging will provide benign weather for Tuesday and Wednesday. With an onshore flow and modest dew point temperatures for this time of year, both air temperature and relative humidity should remain fairly comfortable. Then another frontal boundary associated with a low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes region is expected to bring the chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area late Thursday afternoon through Friday. This front may sag far enough south of the region to provide benign weather during the upcoming weekend, but the combination of a mid-level ridge and southerly flow at the surface will produce increasing warmth and humidity into early next week. An impulse developing along this front may touch off a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly south of the Mason-Dixon line, Sunday night, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible again on Monday given an increasingly unstable airmass.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR. NW winds less than 10 kt early, diminishing to less than 5 kt late. High confidence.

Tuesday . VFR. NW winds 5-10 kt. High confidence.

Outlook . Tuesday night through Wednesday night . Mainly VFR. Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming N, then E or SE at the same speeds late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Moderate confidence.

Thursday and Thursday night . Mainly VFR, though chances for showers and storms increase late Thursday afternoon. Brief restrictions possible in their proximity. Southeast winds 5 to 15 kt becoming southerly Thursday night. Moderate confidence.

Friday . Mainly VFR, though chances for showers/storms continue, with brief restrictions possible. South to southwest winds 5 to 15 kt. Low confidence.

Friday Night and Saturday . Mainly VFR. South to southwest winds 5 to 10 kt. Low confidence.

MARINE. Tonight . Ocean seas around 4 feet, diminishing to around 3 feet late. SW winds less than 10 kt.

Tuesday . Sub-SCA conditions with 3 feet ocean seas and S-SW winds 10- 15 kt.

Outlook . Tuesday night through Wednesday night . Sub-advisory winds/seas and fair weather expected.

Thursday through Friday . Sub-advisory winds/seas expected. A chance of showers/storms, with locally higher waves and gusty winds in their proximity.

Friday night and Saturday . Sub-advisory winds/seas expected.

Rip Currents .

There is a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip into this evening. Breezy southwesterly winds will combine with a medium- period southeasterly swell to yield the continued moderate risk conditions. Surf heights will generally be 2 to 4 feet. By Tuesday, seas will come down by about a foot as offshore flow prevails, so current thinking is that the rip risk will fall to low levels on Tuesday.

EQUIPMENT.

The NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park, PA (WNG704) remains off the air until further notice due to damage to the antenna during the June 3 derecho.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Miketta Near Term . MPS Short Term . MPS Long Term . Miketta Aviation . Miketta/MPS Marine . Miketta/MPS Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 0 mi62 min 83°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 18 mi62 min 79°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 20 mi62 min 86°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 24 mi32 min SE 6 G 7 82°F 83°F1011.3 hPa (-0.7)66°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 32 mi62 min 84°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi122 min NNW 1 1010 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 43 mi62 min 78°F
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 43 mi62 min 84°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 45 mi62 min 85°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 46 mi44 min ENE 3.9 G 3.9 83°F 85°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi62 min 84°F

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD13 mi2.6 hrsE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F68°F55%1010.8 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD17 mi37 minN 010.00 miFair86°F64°F49%1010.2 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD18 mi94 minN 07.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F61°F43%1010.1 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD20 mi38 minSE 810.00 miFair82°F68°F63%1010.3 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD22 mi38 minWNW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F61°F43%1009.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTN

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5CalmCalmW7--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3--CalmCalmNW4NW7NW8NW9W12W7W8E4--SE5
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W10W14W9W8CalmCalm--CalmW7CalmCalmCalmCalmW4SW3S4S4SE9SE13SE11
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2 days agoNW9
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W10W4CalmCalmCalmCalmW5Calm----CalmCalmS4S5CalmCalmCalmSW4W12W11W13W12
G18

Tide / Current Tables for Tolchester Beach, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tolchester Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:59 AM EDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:37 AM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:46 PM EDT     1.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:03 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.61.61.61.41.310.90.80.70.811.11.21.31.21.10.90.70.50.40.50.71

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:16 AM EDT     0.82 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:51 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 09:50 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:24 PM EDT     0.39 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:55 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:23 PM EDT     -0.69 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:30 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.80.60.3-0-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.200.30.40.40.2-0-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.20.20.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.