Thursday, February27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tolchester, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 5:56PM Thursday February 27, 2020 9:43 AM EST (14:43 UTC) Moonrise 8:52AMMoonset 9:45PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 637 Am Est Thu Feb 27 2020
.gale warning in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm est this evening through Friday afternoon...
Today..W winds 25 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Waves 4 ft.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt...diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 637 Am Est Thu Feb 27 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A low pressure system will stall over southeastern canada through Saturday with multiple disturbances spiraling around it. High pressure will gradually build in from the central united states late this weekend into early next week. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Friday night through Saturday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tolchester CDP, MD
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location: 39.21, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 271435 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 935 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Strong low pressure will continue to gradually move across New England and adjacent Canada through this afternoon. The low will then move farther away tonight and Friday. A weak cold front will move across the area Friday night, then high pressure builds to our south through the weekend before moving offshore by Monday morning. A series of low pressure systems then look to track through the Great Lakes through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. A Wind Advisory has been issued for much of the region through this afternoon. Several wind gusts have already approached 50 mph this morning across eastern PA and NJ as strong cold air advection along with deeper mixing is bringing the stronger wind field down to the surface. The 12z Sterling, VA raob shows 40-45 knots at the top of the mixing layer. There looks to be a burst of stronger winds for a time this morning, then there may be another one toward later this evening as the cold air advection continues to deepen. Held off including much of our Delmarva counties in the Wind Advisory as the winds may have already peaked there and somewhat less wind is forecast for these areas through the day.

For the 930 AM update, besides increasing the wind/wind gusts quite a bit across much of the area, tweaked the hourly grids to account for the current observations and trends. Temperatures for most places probably already peaked. The light snow in the Poconos has ended however at least some flurries should be around there. The bands of stratocumulus should remain for awhile with Delmarva tending to have the most sunshine. Plenty of dry air however advecting in should erode these clouds at least some.

Otherwise, the cold air advection will be noticeable today as highs today are likely to be 10 to 15 degrees below Wednesday's highs or 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. Tonight into Friday, the pressure gradient is not expected to diminish much. Consequently, we'll keep at least breezy conditions across the region at least into Friday afternoon. Even overnight tonight, winds are unlikely to decouple.

Temperatures on Friday are likely to be close to what we see today, with highs mostly in the 30s and 40s.

A narrow surface and low level trough associated with the still departing low could provide enough lift to spark off some rain showers across portions of Delmarva. However, given how much dry air advection we will see before then, it is not expected to amount to much.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Summary: The first half of the extended will feature cool and mostly dry conditions, while the second half will be warmer with greater precipitation chances. Significant headlines do not appear likely at this time.

Details .

Saturday through Sunday . The cold closed low, initially centered over Quebec, will very slowly progress NE Friday into Saturday. Additional shortwave energy pivoting down the backside of this feature will result in continued mid-lvl height falls over our area through Saturday morning with heights then beginning to rebound as short-wave ridging briefly moves over the area. The occluded & vertically-stacked surface low will weaken north of the area through early Saturday, with a weak surface trough and cold front moving through the area Friday night. High Pressure will then build SE of the area Saturday through Sunday.

Consequently expect a stretch of cool and generally dry weather through the period. High temperatures will likely be coolest on Saturday (behind the weak cold front) with highs generally in the mid to upper 30s. Highs Friday and Sunday look to be about 5 degrees warmer. Although the lack of moisture should keep us generally dry there will be a chance of some light rain/snow showers over Delmarva Friday evening/night as the the weak prefrontal trough attempts to draw some limited moisture into the area. However given how weak the front and associated forcing is don't expect much with this and limited PoPs to Chc. Otherwise do expect a fair amount of cloud cover over the southern 1/2-2/3rds of the area late Friday with Saturday also featuring a good amount of strato-cumulus given the well-mixed boundary layer some moisture in the 800-850 layer.

Monday through Wednesday . By the start of next week synoptic pattern shifts to what has largely been the default pattern this winter . a western Atlantic ridge with upstream troughing over the Central US. This will result in a storm track north and west of the area which will favor warmer temperatures and primarily rain events. At this time details are a bit lacking, but a system does look to track over the Great Lakes Monday PM into Tuesday with a secondary system possibly on its heels on Wednesday. Temperatures will only be a couple degrees above normal Monday but should increase into the low to mid 60s by Wednesday as SW flow increases in association with the aforementioned storm systems.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR, however clouds around 4000 feet will linger through the day. Westerly winds sustained around 20 knots with gusts 35-40 knots. Moderate confidence.

Tonight . VFR. Westerly winds diminishing slightly from today, though gusts near 25 kt still possible overnight. Moderate confidence.

Outlook . Friday-Saturday . VFR with westerly winds from 10 to 15 knots and gusts to 25 knots Friday and 20 knots Saturday. A brief period of MVFR CIGs may be possible at RDG and ABE and points north and west Saturday as a disturbance passes across the region. Moderate confidence on winds, low confidence on MVFR CIGs.

Sunday . VFR with northwesterly winds from 5 to 10 knots and gusts to 15 knots. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Gale Warning remains in effect for all waters through tonight. Westerly wind gusts near 40 kt are possible. Winds will diminish somewhat tonight, but still remain in gale force. The strong

It is possible that the snow showers could linger in the southern Poconos through the day, given the strong WNW flow. However, also expect significant dry air advection, so at this point, have only mentioned a slight chance of snow showers through the day. It should not expand past the southern Poconos. winds will also result in rough seas, however with the offshore wind component wave heights will be limited closer to the coast.

Outlook .

Friday . Winds are expected to subside further, with gusts below gale force expected on the Delaware Bay near sunrise Friday morning, and on the Atlantic coastal waters by late Friday morning. Conditions should subside below SCA by Friday night.

Saturday . Sub SCA conditions for much of the day however westerly wind gusts may exceed 25 kts by the evening into Saturday night. Seas 3-4 ft.

Sunday . Winds should diminish below SCA criteria by Sunday morning with gusts 15-20kts and seas 3-4ft.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for PAZ054-055- 060>062-070-071-101>106. NJ . Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NJZ001-007>010- 012>027. DE . Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for DEZ001. MD . Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ008. MARINE . Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ450>455. Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . Carr/Gorse/Johnson Near Term . Gorse/Johnson Short Term . Johnson Long Term . Carr Aviation . Carr/Johnson Marine . Carr/Johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 0 mi62 min W 23 G 34 38°F 44°F1006.2 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 15 mi56 min WNW 28 G 34
FSNM2 15 mi74 min W 36 G 44 35°F 1005.3 hPa
CPVM2 17 mi56 min 40°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 18 mi56 min NNW 13 G 24 37°F 44°F1006.5 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 20 mi56 min 41°F 1006.4 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 24 mi44 min W 26 G 29 38°F 43°F1007.7 hPa (+3.8)22°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 32 mi56 min W 12 G 22 38°F 42°F1005.1 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi134 min WNW 9.9 1005 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 43 mi56 min WNW 17 G 26 38°F 47°F1004 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 43 mi56 min 38°F 43°F1003.8 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 45 mi62 min W 21 G 28 41°F 44°F1006.5 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 46 mi56 min WNW 25 G 29 40°F 1007.6 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 47 mi56 min WNW 28 G 35 38°F 1004 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi56 min WNW 12 G 23 38°F 44°F1009 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD13 mi1.8 hrsW 24 G 3010.00 miPartly Cloudy and Windy37°F24°F60%1005.4 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD17 mi59 minWNW 14 G 2210.00 miFair39°F21°F48%1007.1 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD18 mi1.8 hrsW 16 G 2610.00 miPartly Cloudy37°F21°F55%1005.1 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD20 mi50 minno data mi38°F18°F44%1007.3 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD20 mi50 minWNW 12 G 2010.00 miFair39°F21°F48%1007 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD22 mi50 minW 23 G 3110.00 miPartly Cloudy and Windy38°F19°F46%1006.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTN

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3E5NE4CalmNE6NE4E3E3E8E8E10E7E8
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1 day agoSE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNE3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmS4SE5CalmSE3E3SE3SE3SE4S6S9SE7SE7SE5SE10SE4SE5CalmCalmE5E4SE4CalmSE3

Tide / Current Tables for Tolchester Beach, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tolchester Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:23 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:13 AM EST     1.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:40 PM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:54 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:42 PM EST     0.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:45 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.30.1-0.1-0.10.10.40.70.9110.80.60.30.1-0.1-0.100.20.50.80.90.90.8

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:32 AM EST     -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:43 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:53 AM EST     0.80 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:09 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:05 PM EST     -0.66 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:10 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:55 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:03 PM EST     0.60 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:45 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:55 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.