Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 9:00 PM   Moonset 5:50 AM

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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 441 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
Rest of this afternoon - NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sat - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sat night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Sun - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 441 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure will Wedge into the region for the end of the week, then move offshore over the weekend. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for portions of the waters both Friday and Saturday afternoons. Extensions may be needed due to southerly channeling Sunday into early next week. The next substantial front to cross the waters looks to arrive by Tuesday bringing renewed chances for showers and Thunderstorms.

FXUS61 KPHI 251846 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 246 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds across the Middle Atlantic region tonight then moves offshore Friday. A warm front attached to low pressure over the Great Lakes moves by Saturday. Highs pressure returns for Sunday and into next week. Another low and front arrives for Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
A weak shortwave trough now pushing offshore this afternoon will keep some scattered to broken mid-level clouds around through the remainder of the daytime. The isolated morning showers across the coastal plain have now moved offshore and weakened.
An unseasonably cool and dry airmass has settled into much of the area as high pressure is building to our northeast. High temperatures in the mid 50s are some 10-15 degrees below normal.
The cloud cover should gradually diminish into the evening, then mostly clear skies are anticipated for the overnight period.

High pressure will continue building to the north overnight with the gradient slacking off considerably after midnight or so.
With drier and cooler airmass in place, the mostly clear skies and light and variable to calm winds should maximize radiational cooling, particularly across interior portions of New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Have kept the forecast leaning heavily toward the coldest guidance and even adjusted down a degree or two from there in the typical cold/sheltered locations across the coastal plain and NW NJ.

The result is near to sub-freezing temperatures and widespread frost development for much of our Pennsylvania and New Jersey zones away from the immediate coast and outside of urban Philadelphia. Therefore, the Freeze Watch was upgraded to a Freeze Warning in these areas. For urban Philadelphia and points southwest into Delmarva, temperatures are forecast to fall well into the mid 30s away from the immediate coast. This is expected to result in areas of frost development given the light to calm winds and clear skies. A Frost Advisory was issued to highlight this threat. Can't rule out some interior portions near the MD/DE border dropping to near freezing, but any freezing temperatures will likely remain isolated enough to preclude a Freeze Warning there. Inland Cape May County and coastal Monmouth County were also included in the Frost Advisory, as winds should become calm enough for a time overnight to result in some frost development nearer to the coasts there.

For Friday, the high pressure across New England will begin to shift offshore. East to southeast winds will increase to near 10 mph across much of the area, keeping a relatively cool maritime airmass entrenched across the region. However, we will see some modification of the airmass compared to today, so temperatures should warm into the low 60s across most areas away from the coasts which will stay in the 50s. Expect mostly sunny skies and a cool breeze much of the day.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A transition from early springlike temperatures Friday night to early summer readings by Sunday. An upper ridge will build across the area thru the period and as this happens, low pressure moves by to the north, bringing a warm front thru on Saturday. There will be plenty of clouds around, but chances for rain are low Saturday (slight chance) and only chance levels for Sat night.
The most favored areas for the showers are the Southern Poconos, Lehigh Valley and north NJ.

Mild and dry weather will be around for Sunday. Following the warm front, a deep southerly flow will arrive over the area, so increasing warmth and humidity is expected. Highs Sunday will be in the upper 70s/low 80s in most spots, but cooler near the shore and up across the Poconos.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
There are not many changes for the long term with todays forecast.
Very warm temperatures for late spring will remain in place as the upper ridge starts out across the East late this weekend. Gradually, this ridge weakens and allows more scattered shortwave energy to arrive across the area. For Tuesday and into Wednesday, a cold front will approach the area and the weaken as it moves thru. So, for the period from Sunday night thru Monday night, a dry forecast is in place.
Tuesday/Tuesday night will feature some scattered shower/tstm activity and after that, only widely scattered showers are expected for the midweek and into Thu.

Well above normal temps for Sunday/Monday with highs in the upper 70s/low 80s Sunday and then some 5 to 7 degrees warmer for Monday.
There will be more clouds and showers for Tue, but highs in the 80s are still expected. Humidity levels will increase into the new week with dew points rising to the upper 50s/low 60s for many areas.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Rest of today...VFR with SCT to BKN clouds. Easterly winds near 5-10 kts shifting southeast by 22Z. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Southeast to east winds 5-10 kts early diminishing by 06Z to less than 5 kts favoring a northeast direction. Winds may become locally calm. High confidence.

Friday...VFR. East to southeast winds increasing to near 5-10 kts. High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday night/Saturday... VFR expected.

Saturday night... VFR except in a few scattered showers mostly KRDG/KABE/KTTN when some MVFR is possible.

Sunday and Monday...VFR conditions anticipated.

Tuesday... Mostly VFR but scattered showers with lower conditions possible.

MARINE
Seas will remain elevated near 5 feet through today south of Manasquan before gradually diminishing this evening and into the overnight. Additionally, northeast winds have remained elevated near 15 kts with gusts near 25 kts, although this will diminish into the evening. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 4 AM Friday for the Atlantic zones south of Manasquan. No additional hazards are expected through Friday with east winds 10-15 kts and seas 2-4 feet.

Outlook...

Friday night through Tuesday... Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria through the period. Fair weather expected.

FIRE WEATHER
RH's across much of the region will remain quite low this afternoon across our Pennsylvania and New Jersey zones, and we've had little rain now for a couple of weeks, allowing fine fuels to dry. Minimum relative humidity values are forecast to drop into the 20-30% range.
Northeast to east winds will diminish thru the afternoon while the lowest RH values occur.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ070-071.
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ060>062- 101>106.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for NJZ014-023.
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for NJZ001-007>010- 012-013-015>022-027.
DE...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for DEZ001>003.
MD...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for MDZ012-015-019- 020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ451>455.

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Tolchester Beach
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Thu -- 02:03 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:37 AM EDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:42 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:05 PM EDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tolchester Beach, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Tide feet

Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Thu -- 12:32 AM EDT     -0.57 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:09 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:54 AM EDT     1.06 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:23 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:43 PM EDT     -0.97 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:31 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT     0.40 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:16 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots

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