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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 1233 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
This afternoon..S winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Areas of dense fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers. Areas of dense fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw late. Waves 1 ft. Showers. Areas of dense fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming ne. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely in the evening. A chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.

ANZ500 1233 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
low pressure will slide by to the north today. A stronger frontal system looks to cross the waters Sunday into Monday. Another area of low pressure may impact the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure returns to the waters by late next week. Small craft advisories may be needed early next week.

FXUS61 KPHI 021622 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1122 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will be just south of our area on Saturday, with a cloudy by dry and mild day. Low pressure tracking toward Lake Ontario will lift that front into our area by Sunday, before another low develops and tracks off the coast. Weak high pressure builds in for early next week, followed by a weak storm system passing by around Tuesday night. Expect progressively colder temperatures through Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Visibilities across the area have now improved, hence the Dense Fog Advisory for northwestern areas has now expired. With residual low-level moisture hanging around, some areas of mist continue. Skies should remain mostly cloudy through much of the afternoon with occasional breaks of sun across eastern PA.
Considering skies will remain mostly cloudy today, temps have been trended down a degree or two. Still, no precipitation is expected today and into the first part of the evening.

For tonight, the next system which is organizing to the south will send clouds and rains towards the region later tonight. Pops will increase to likely/categorical after midnight and continue into Sunday morning. By Sunday morning, low pressure will be slowly strengthening while moving NE across the VA tidewater area.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Sunday will almost certainly start off wet for the majority of the northern Mid-Atlantic. Low pressure located around eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania will lift northeastward toward Lake Ontario by the afternoon, attempting to lift a warm front northward across our area. However, with high pressure over Quebec ridging southward across New England and slightly into the northern Mid-Atlantic coastal plain, the low will occlude, with a secondary low developing over Virginia and tracking east-northeastward off the NJ coast later Sunday. While models are in general agreement with that synoptic evolution, they have been struggling with consistency in regard to how far north the warm front may make it into our area, and how fast. That will determine how quickly rain tapers off in our region from south to north, and how mild the daytime temperatures will be.

Either way, expect the wettest part of the day to be in the morning, but rain may begin to taper off, first across the Delmarva. Have carried 30-50 percent POPs into the early evening hours across most of the area, with the NAM and some of the CAMs suggesting rain may be slower to taper off and lift out to the northeast. That solution makes some sense given the tendency for cooler, stable low-level air to be more stubborn, resulting in lingering isentropic lift. Have high temperatures into the low 60s south of Dover, with mid-50s up to Philly and Tom's River, but stuck with cooler guidance near and northwest of I-95, with the Poconos and Sussex County NJ staying in the mid-40s. All these details aside, expect an overall damp and overcast day. There will be a light easterly breeze, that will turn southerly south of the warm front. Winds may gust over 20 mph at times along the NJ shore, especially farther north. Total rainfall amounts from Saturday night through Sunday are expected to be near 1/2 to 3/4 inches...a little lower in the Delmarva and higher from the Poconos to northern NJ.

Sunday night should see any lingering rain lift out of the area as warm advection shifts offshore and the associated upper trough passes by, with winds both at the surface and aloft turning westerly. Skies should clear as drier air filters in, but lows will be fairly mild, into the 40s for most of the region. Monday will be a dry day with at least some partial sunshine for most, with seasonable highs mainly in the 50s.
Clouds may start to increase, especially by the afternoon as the next upper-level trough tracks quickly eastward across the Appalachians. However, that system will lack much moisture, and the surface low will be weak and stay well south of our region, keeping us dry. Skies may even clear out Monday night. Will have to keep an eye out for some patchy fog in sheltered valleys Sunday night and Monday night, but overall enough westerly winds should limit the fog from being too widespread or dense.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A very progressive pattern will continue through the week, with yet another shortwave trough set to pass by later Tuesday and Tuesday night. Moisture will once again be lacking, and due in part to the spacing or lack thereof between these shortwaves, there will not be much of an opportunity for amplification and any resulting stronger surface features or steadier precipitation.
Expect a dry day Tuesday though any sunshine may be limited to the morning hours, and from around southern NJ to the Delmarva.
These shortwaves will continue to carve out at least a temporary larger amplitude trough over eastern North America, and with reinforcing shots of cold air advection resulting in progressively colder temperatures through the week. Highs through Friday will be generally in the 40s for most areas, with Thursday being the coldest day.

The shortwave passing through Tuesday night may carry enough moisture and forcing for some light rain, and temperatures may be cold enough for some snow to mix in to northern portions of our region, possibly farther south early Wednesday morning. Some ensemble members have some light accumulations up around the Poconos to northern NJ, but that is probably a reasonable worst case. Otherwise, with broad high pressure building in across the eastern U.S. Wednesday through Friday, dry weather should return, though some models have a weak low passing across the Great Lakes with some light precipitation possibly clipping northern portions of our region. Longer range guidance is locked onto a substantial upper ridge building across the East on Friday into the Weekend, with moderating temperatures.

AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today
Low clouds and fog across the area this morning will slowly give way to improving VSBYS/CIGs during the afternoon. Timing and degree of improvement not certain. Light SW winds this morning and then mostly W or NW winds this afternoon. Low confid.

Tonight
VFR (possible) early then increasing clouds. Lower CIGS/VSBYS with more rains possible by dawn. MVFR/IFR possible.
Low/medium confid. Light winds.

Outlook...

Sunday...LIFR or IFR ceilings along with IFR VSBY in rain likely in the morning for most TAF sites. That may improve to MVFR later in the day. Easterly winds to around 10 kt. Low confidence on extent and timing of improving conditions.

Monday and Tuesday...Dry and mainly VFR. Need to watch for some patchy morning fog both days, but westerly winds 5-10 kt should limit that.

Wednesday...Some light rain and MVFR conditions possible Tuesday night into early Wednesday, maybe even ending as some wet snow.
Turning VFR otherwise, with NW winds 10 kt.

MARINE
A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect from Manasquan Inlet to Great Egg Inlet through 1 PM EST this afternoon and a Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect from Great Egg Inlet to Fenwick Island (including the Delaware Bay) through 3 PM EST this afternoon.

Coastal observations and webcams continue to show visibility below 1 mile. Guidance has been persistent that low visibility will continue through early-mid afternoon. Weak low pressure moving by to the north and offshore high pressure will keep a light SW/W flow on the waters today and early tonight. Later tonight, winds will swing around to E/NE as another low pressure area moves by to the south with rain increasing. Sub-SCA winds and seas thru tonight although winds will become closer to 15 knots by Sun morning.

Outlook...

Sunday...A warm front trying to lift northward will result in increasing easterly winds, possibly turning southerly in the afternoon, especially from Cape May southward. Those easterlies may exceed 20 kt, especially north of Atlantic City. That could prompt a brief Small Craft Advisory, but for now those conditions look brief/localized. Seas building 3 to 4 ft, locally higher north.

Monday...Westerly winds may gust over 20 kt in the afternoon, especially of NJ. Seas around 3-4 ft.

Tuesday...WNW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2-3 ft.

Wednesday...NW to N winds around 15 kt, with some gusts 20-25 kt possible. Seas around 3 ft.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ430- 431-453>455.
Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ451- 452.

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Tolchester Beach
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Sat -- 05:13 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:09 AM EST     0.78 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:41 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:58 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:59 PM EST     1.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tolchester Beach, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Tide feet

Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Sat -- 02:43 AM EST     -0.99 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:31 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:09 AM EST     0.52 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:40 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:08 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:38 PM EST     -0.39 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:01 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:41 PM EST     0.81 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:57 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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