Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tolchester, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 4:44PM Saturday December 14, 2019 1:58 PM EST (18:58 UTC) Moonrise 7:16PMMoonset 9:30AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 1240 Pm Est Sat Dec 14 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm est this afternoon through Sunday afternoon...
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt... Increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain and snow or sleet.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely through the day.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ500 1240 Pm Est Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will move northeast of the region today. High pressure will briefly build overhead for Sunday before low pressure impacts the area Monday. The cold front associated with this low will pass through Tuesday. Small craft advisories may be needed again on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tolchester CDP, MD
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location: 39.21, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 141513 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1013 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will continue to strengthen and move north from the Mid-Atlantic to New England throughout the day. High pressure will slowly return into Sunday then push offshore as a warm front lifts north into the area by late Monday. The associated low pressure will cross the area on Tuesday then high pressure will follow in its wake and persist through the end of the work week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. The heaviest of the rain has moved out of the area. In its wake, a dry slot with areas of fog, drizzle, and occasional light rain. Another slug of moderate rainfall is over western Pennsylvania and down into the Appalachians. That lifts to the north and east today, possibly clipping portions of southeast Pennsylvania and the southern Poconos this afternoon.

The low will cross directly overhead today and then push off to the north by late afternoon/evening. Hi-res models continue to show a nice dry slot moving over the area this morning as the low moves across the region. While precip may only lighten up in some areas, we may be able to squeak out a few hours of relatively dry conditions before rain fills in on the back side of the low and then quickly comes to an end later in the day.

Warm air advection will continue through today as the low passes overhead. Similar to yesterday, we will see the greatest warming occur along the coast and nearby inland areas, although we should warm into the 50s through much of the forecast area with some 40s remaining over the southern Poconos.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/. The low lifts through New England and into Quebec tonight and any lingering precipitation this evening should end fairly quickly from south to north. Some light rain/snow showers may persist across the higher elevations as the flow turns to the west. Winds will start to pick up overnight and become quite gusty with winds potentially gusting to around 30 to 35 mph overnight.

Temperatures will cool behind the exiting low. However, the clouds may linger around long enough that we don't radiate as efficiently as we could and temperatures will remain about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than climo norms overnight. Lows will drop into the 30s across the forecast area, with some temps hanging on near 40 especially along the immediate coast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Summary: For the long term, there is one system of interest in the Monday through Tuesday time frame that will warrant keeping a close eye on. Otherwise, high pressure and fair weather will be dominating the long term forecast period.

Weak high pressure will dominate briefly on Sunday then move offshore early Monday as a warm front lifts northward across the forecast area. The front is forecast to stall over our area Monday night as its associated low pressure lifts northeastward from the Tennessee Valley region. In the meantime, overrunning along the warm front and forcing aloft will result in a shield of stratiform precipitation mainly along and north of the front. Medium range guidance varies in the timing and evolution of precipitation, particularly during the day Monday at its initial onset. It appears light precip will begin as early as daybreak Monday across the center portion of the forecast area then weaken and lift slowly north with the front. Due to the uncertainty in time and placement of the precip Monday morning, have capped PoPs at high end chance for now.

At onset, the environment is forecast to be cold enough to support snow along and north of the I-95 corridor, including southern New Jersey and the northern portion of Delmarva. Along and south of I- 95, surface temperatures will likely be too warm to support any accumulation of wintry precip. The cold environmental and surface air will be replaced by warmer air from the south as the warm front lifts farther north and warm advection increases throughout the day on Monday.

The snow will change to a wintry mix the to all rain by the early afternoon with temperatures above freezing everywhere outside of the southern Poconos and NW NJ. Precip is forecast to fill in and become more widespread through the afternoon and into the evening and overnight periods. Some light snow/sleet accumulations less than 1 inch are possible mainly north/west of the Philly metro area. Across the southern Poconos and NW NJ, snow/sleet accumulations of 1-2 inches are possible, but the main concern will be freezing rain and ice accretion. With the warm front stalling south of this area, temperatures are likely to remain near or below freezing for a much longer period as precip turns to all rain Monday evening lasting through much of the overnight and even into Tuesday morning. Ice accumulations of 0.10 to locally 0.25 inches are possible in the highest elevations in these areas. Precip will eventually turn to all rain Tuesday morning, then will end from west to east through the afternoon as the low moves east of the region.

High pressure will return in its wake then generally fair weather is expected through the rest of the work week with below normal temperatures. Some lake effect snow showers are possible Wednesday night across the southern Poconos and NW NJ.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . Widespread IFR and LIFR conditions have been present this morning with areas of rain, drizzle, and fog. This is expected to continue through early afternoon, though we should see a general trend for slow improvement and the loss of any LIFR conditions in most areas by 17z. By mid to late afternoon, especially after 20z, expect most sites to trend towards MVFR as precipitation ends from south to north. Light easterly flow in most areas this morning will turn southwesterly this afternoon and will increase in speed, with gusts of 20 to 25 kt possible by late afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Tonight . Improving conditions are expected. Any lingering IFR should improve to MVFR during the evening hours as ceilings lift. Continued improvement to VFR is expected during the first half of the night. Southwesterly winds will become more westerly overnight at around 10 to 15 knots with gust up to 30 knots overnight. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Sunday . VFR with gusty westerly winds 30-35 kts possible. High confidence.

Sunday night . Westerly winds diminishing becoming light and variable by daybreak. Mainly VFR with cloud cover increasing and ceilings lowering throughout the night. Moderate confidence.

Monday . MVFR with IFR developing later in the day. Wintry mix early changing to rain from south to north through the afternoon. Light southeasterly winds. Low confidence on timing and details.

Monday night . IFR ceilings. Rain with associated visibility restrictions. Southerly winds 5-10 kts. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday . Initially IFR will improve to VFR by the end of the day. Rain and clouds initially will clear through the afternoon. Southwesterly winds becoming northwesterly around 10 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night . VFR. Northwesterly winds 5-10 kts. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday . VFR. Northwesterly winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue across ocean waters today with waves 4-7 feet. SCA conditions will then develop across Delaware Bay this afternoon. Winds are forecast to remain below criteria through much of the day then increase later this afternoon. Gales are then forecast to develop into the evening and overnight hours across all waters. By daybreak Sunday, gales will diminish across the southern waters and Delaware Bay. Winds and waves will slowly diminish throughout the day Sunday.

Outlook .

SCA conditions are forecast to develop Monday night with winds gusting 25-30 kts and waves building to 4-6 feet on Tuesday. A lull in the winds is forecast Tuesday night, then strengthen again on Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY. The Flood Watch for portions of New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania has been cancelled.

The additional rainfall this afternoon should have much impact on local rivers, creeks, or streams.

Many local rivers, creeks, and streams will continue to have rises today through Sunday. Most places will not exceed flood stage. The only exception is Pine Brook on the Passaic which may approach flood stage on Sunday afternoon and Griggstown on the Millstone which is above flood stage and a Special River Statement (RVS) has been issued.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Minor coastal flooding is occurring across the New Jersey and Delaware coast this morning and will continue into the early afternoon, including the south shores of the Raritan Bay and adjacent back bays. The Coastal Flood Advisory has been expanded to include Kent County, Delaware and Cumberland County, New Jersey.

We will see an abrupt shift to offshore flow by Saturday night. Therefore, not expecting the coastal flooding to continue into subsequent high tide cycles.

With only a brief period of southerly flow, tidal flooding is not expected on the northeastern shores of the Chesapeake Bay.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NJZ012>014-020>027. DE . Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for DEZ002>004. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ450>455. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ450>453. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ430-431-454-455. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-431.



Synopsis . Staarmann Near Term . Meola/MPS Short Term . Meola Long Term . Staarmann Aviation . Meola/Staarmann/O'Brien Marine . Staarmann Hydrology . MPS Tides/Coastal Flooding . Johnson/Robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 0 mi64 min SSW 9.9 G 11 45°F 43°F993 hPa
FSNM2 15 mi70 min WSW 9.9 G 16 46°F 992.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 15 mi58 min WSW 12 G 13 47°F 992.9 hPa (-1.9)
CPVM2 17 mi58 min 46°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 18 mi58 min WSW 5.1 G 8 992.8 hPa (-1.8)
44063 - Annapolis 20 mi34 min WNW 12 G 14 45°F 44°F993.4 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 20 mi58 min 47°F 992.2 hPa (-2.4)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 24 mi58 min WSW 11 G 13 46°F 44°F993.6 hPa (-2.7)46°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 32 mi64 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 53°F 43°F991.1 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi148 min S 1 47°F 993 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 43 mi64 min S 5.1 G 8 50°F 46°F990.8 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 43 mi64 min 49°F 43°F990.3 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 45 mi58 min SSW 7 G 13 992.9 hPa (-2.6)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 46 mi34 min W 16 G 18 46°F 994.2 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 47 mi58 min SSE 16 G 16 49°F 45°F991.5 hPa (-4.3)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi58 min SW 2.9 G 2.9 46°F 43°F994.1 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD13 mi60 minWSW 72.00 miLight Rain50°F50°F100%992.5 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD17 mi63 minSW 81.25 miLight Rain Fog/Mist46°F0°F%992.9 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD20 mi64 minno data mi49°F45°F86%992 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD20 mi64 minW 84.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist47°F45°F93%993.2 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD22 mi64 minWSW 83.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist46°F44°F93%993.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTN

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmNW4W9CalmW5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmSW7
1 day agoS4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmW8NW3NW3N4CalmCalm
2 days agoW10
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W12W4W4W7W3NW3NW5NW4CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmE6S5S4

Tide / Current Tables for Tolchester Beach, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tolchester Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:57 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:01 AM EST     0.74 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:29 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:50 PM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:44 PM EST     1.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.30-00.10.20.50.70.70.70.50.2-0-0.2-0.2-0.10.10.511.31.51.61.41.2

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:49 AM EST     -1.10 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:42 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:00 AM EST     0.44 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:29 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:31 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:17 PM EST     -0.51 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:45 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:37 PM EST     1.13 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:07 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1-1.1-1-0.6-0.30.10.40.40.40.1-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.30.10.50.91.11.10.90.50.1-0.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.