Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tolchester, MD

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 7:49PM Sunday August 25, 2019 7:52 AM EDT (11:52 UTC) Moonrise 12:02AMMoonset 3:03PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 735 Am Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm edt this evening through late tonight...
Today..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 735 Am Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain across the northeastern united states today. Low pressure will develop off the carolina coast today and Monday before moving northeast out to sea Tuesday. A cold front will approach the waters Wednesday. Small craft advisories may be needed Monday into Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tolchester CDP, MD
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location: 39.21, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 251042
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
642 am edt Sun aug 25 2019

Synopsis
High pressure located across new england and southeast canada will
weaken through Tuesday. Low pressure will move into ontario and
cause a cold front to cross our area during the middle of the
upcoming week. More high pressure will arrive for Thursday and
Friday. Another front may affect the weather next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
630 am update: no changes to the forecast at this time.

Temperatures and sky cover are a little chaotic, but the grids
have the general idea at this point.

Previous discussion...

models have really struggled with the evolution of a midlevel vortex
atop the northeast this weekend. The mid upper low is quite a bit
farther south than yesterday's simulations were suggesting, and it
has been slower to move eastward as well. This has had subtle but
important effects on surface flow and may have noticeable impacts on
the weather today, especially near the coast. For starters, winds
have been slow to develop a more easterly component. Most surface
observations early this morning are between 340 and 30 degrees,
which is not very conducive for a surge inland of lower clouds and
drizzle light showers. Radar indicates some sprinkles or light
showers off the new jersey coast early this morning, but these have
shown little progress inland. As the upper low presumably shifts
eastward today, the surface high to our north northeast should as
well. As this occurs, winds will veer to a more east-northeast
direction, which should begin to allow lower clouds and possibly
some light precipitation to move inland. Nevertheless, I am
suspicious that the models are overdoing the precipitation in
general, so I have lowered pops from the previous forecast.

Regarding cloud cover, the models have also struggled with the
scattered-broken midlevel clouds across the area early this morning,
so have bumped sky cover from the previous forecast accordingly.

These have had some effect on radiational cooling (at least in an
hour-by-hour sense), but have not had too much impact on the overall
low temperatures forecast early this morning, except in the far
northwest CWA (where cloud cover has noticeably restricted a sharper
temperature drop). With these trends in mind, felt that a continuity
forecast for today was appropriate. Should see some gradient from
east to west this afternoon, especially with the onshore flow, but
the degree to which this occurs is uncertain given the above
discussion. Statistical consensus did a reasonable job yesterday but
may perform a little worse today owing to the projected increased
effects of sky cover and onshore flow. Nevertheless, confidence is
just not there to make too many deviations from these values owing
to the model errors observed so far.

All of the above said, it should be a sufficiently nice day to get
outside and enjoy the cooler conditions!

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
As discussed yesterday, models are still showing a shift southward
in the strongest low-level moisture fetch from the ocean during the
overnight hours. This should occur in conjunction with ageostrophic
southward acceleration of flow east of the higher terrain, inducing
higher pressure farther to the south overnight. Have continued to
depict this in the forecast, though my caveats regarding the overly
aggressive model generation of precipitation remain. As such,
lowered pops about 5-10 percent for the tonight period, with the
highest pops on the atlantic coast with negligible pops northwest of
a dover to sandy hook line. Additionally, there may be some
improvement in sky condition during the evening hours (especially
the farther north and west you go), with a resurgence of lower clouds
past midnight.

Effects on temperatures may be more pronounced than what has been
seen early this morning, with the north west CWA probably verifying
colder than model consensus and the south east CWA probably
verifying warmer. Have made some adjustments to the low-temperature
forecast with these effects in mind; however, the forecast is
reasonably close to continuity.

Long term Monday through Saturday
The maritime airmass across the area, resulting from the onshore
flow behind the retreating high, will continue early this week.

This will produce some low clouds and some light precipitation
near the coastal areas. Variable cloud cover will be found
further inland across ERN pa and NRN nj. Temperatures both days
will be a little below normal for late august.

Temperatures will return to near normal Wednesday when a cold front
approaches the area. A batch of showers and tstms will accompany
the front with rainfall totals of 1 2 to 1 inch possible. We have
mostly chc pops in the fcst for now, since the models haven't fully
decided if the FROPA will be during the day or overnight into thu
morning. Some fine tuning will occur once the models come into
better agreement.

Late this week, high pressure from the W SW will build back
across the area. A drier and slightly warmer airmass will return
to the middle atlantic. Highs will become above normal with some
upper 80s arriving to the area.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Through tonight... MainlyVFR, with CIGS generally hovering around
4000-8000 feet. Cannot rule out periods of MVFR at miv acy
(closer to the coast), where onshore flow will be stronger, but
not confident enough to include in the tafs at this time. Winds
becoming east-northeast 5 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt
possible, especially at miv acy.

Outlook...

mon tue... MostlyVFR, but some low clouds and light precipitation
possible near the shore. MVFR ifr possible there.

Wed... MVFR possible with some showers tstms.

Thu... MostlyVFR expected.

Marine
Advisory conditions are expected to persist through tonight on the
waters, with seas already around 5 feet at buoy 44009, and wind
gusts meeting criteria on the beaches. Expect a slow trend upward
with both through tonight, with gusts approaching 30 kt at times and
seas building to 5 to 7 feet on the atlantic waters.

Models have been too slow in building the ocean wave heights to this
point, so have forecast conditions slightly higher than their
simulations depict. If trends continue, could see seas build to 8
feet late tonight.

Outlook...

sca conditions will continue into Monday and perhaps maybe
extended into Monday night at some later time. Sub-sca expected
after that. Clouds and a chance for light showers Mon tue. A
chance of showers tstms Wed wed night. Mostly fair thu.

Rip currents...

northeasterly winds in the 15 to 30 mph range and seas between 4 and
7 feet will result in a high risk of rip currents for the new jersey
shore on Sunday with a moderate risk of rip currents expected for
the delaware beaches.

This elevated rip current risk is expected to persist until at least
Tuesday as a prolonged period of onshore flow and elevated seas
looks likely.

Tides coastal flooding
A prolonged period of northeast to east flow will continue through
at least Tuesday. This persistent onshore fetch, combined with
increasing astronomical tides due to an approaching new moon on
Thursday, will likely lead to increasing coastal water levels.

Some spotty minor coastal flooding is possible with this
afternoon's evening's high tide, but better chances for more
widespread minor- advisory-level flooding appear to be with the
afternoon evening tides on Monday and Tuesday.

Equipment
The NWS radar at dover, de (kdox), is out of service at this
time. The time when it will return is presently unknown.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... High rip current risk through this evening for njz014-024>026.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Monday for anz430-431-
450>455.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Cms
short term... Cms
long term... O'hara
aviation... Cms o'hara
marine... Cms o'hara
tides coastal flooding... Cms mps o'hara
equipment... O'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 0 mi59 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1 65°F 79°F1023.1 hPa
FSNM2 15 mi59 min NNE 11 G 14
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 15 mi53 min NNE 9.9 G 13 65°F 1022.9 hPa
CPVM2 17 mi53 min 69°F 58°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 18 mi53 min NE 7 G 8.9 65°F 81°F1022.7 hPa (+0.7)
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 20 mi53 min 70°F 1022.2 hPa (+0.5)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 24 mi53 min NNE 12 G 14 68°F 80°F1023.4 hPa (+0.3)58°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 32 mi53 min NNW 2.9 G 2.9 61°F 81°F1023.5 hPa (+0.5)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi143 min NW 1.9 60°F 1022 hPa59°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 43 mi59 min NE 9.9 G 13 66°F 77°F1023.1 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 43 mi59 min 65°F 81°F1022.6 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 44 mi143 min N 5.1 67°F 1022 hPa60°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 45 mi59 min N 8 G 11 65°F 78°F1021.6 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 46 mi35 min NNE 16 G 18 70°F 1023 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 47 mi59 min NE 17 G 20 66°F 80°F1022.9 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi53 min NE 1.9 G 1.9 66°F 82°F1023 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD13 mi58 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F59°F88%1023.7 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD17 mi73 minNE 310.00 miFair64°F57°F78%1022.3 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD20 mi59 minno data mi66°F55°F68%1023 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD20 mi59 minN 510.00 miFair72°F57°F59%1022.7 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD22 mi59 minNNE 510.00 miA Few Clouds65°F55°F73%1022.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTN

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4NW5N5NE7NE9NE10NE11E7CalmN3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW3N4NW5NW5N6N3N3N4NW3CalmCalmNW4NW3CalmCalmCalmNW3NW4NW4NW4NW5NW4CalmNW4
2 days agoNW5W5W5S6SW9W5W14W8SW3SW6S6SE11SE11NW18
G33
CalmCalmNW9CalmW4W3W4CalmNW5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Tolchester Beach, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tolchester Beach
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:54 AM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:02 AM EDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:50 PM EDT     1.34 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:47 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.822.121.81.61.310.90.80.911.21.31.31.31.10.90.70.60.50.60.9

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:09 AM EDT     0.93 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:51 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:06 AM EDT     -0.75 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:58 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:02 PM EDT     0.26 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:02 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:12 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:25 PM EDT     -0.51 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:08 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.90.90.70.3-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.200.20.30.20-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.3-00.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.