Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tolchester, MD
May 21, 2024 1:16 PM EDT (17:16 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:45 AM Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 5:43 PM Moonset 3:25 AM |
ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 1034 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024
Rest of today - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms.
Sat - E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1034 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure will build over the waters today. A strong cold front will approach the waters Wednesday into Thursday. This frontal system will settle south of the area Friday before retreating back toward the waters this weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.
high pressure will build over the waters today. A strong cold front will approach the waters Wednesday into Thursday. This frontal system will settle south of the area Friday before retreating back toward the waters this weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 211657 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1257 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure shifts to the south today then out to sea Wednesday. A cold front will approach the area Wednesday night, before slowly moving across the area on Thursday, then stalls to our south through the weekend. Several waves of low pressure and may develop and move along this boundary over the weekend into early next week, bringing unsettled weather to the area.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 12:50pm...Minor changes to the current forecast have been made with the early afternoon update. Forecast remains on track.
Another dry and quiet weather day is expected with some fair- weather cumulus this afternoon. High temps should be a bit warmer than yesterday, rising into the low to mid 80s. Temps will be noticeably cooler along/near the shore thanks to light surface winds allowing an afternoon sea breeze circulation to develop.
Another tranquil night with mostly clear skies and calm winds. Light SSW flow should inhibit much organized fog outside the immediate coast, but some patchy fog will be possible. Lows in the mid 50s to around 60.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will move farther away from the area and out to sea on Wednesday, losing its effect on the weather across the area. Dry conditions are expected early in the day on Wednesday, but showers will be possible by the end of the day as a mid/upper level disturbance moves in to the area. Showers and thunderstorms become more likely on Wednesday night as a pre-frontal trough may develop across the area while the aforementioned mid/upper level disturbance slowly moves across the area. Showers and thunderstorms become even more likely on Thursday and into Thursday evening as the cold front moves across the area. There is some instability forecast across the area, with CAPE values potentially reaching 1000-2000 J/kg, with some shear across the area with 30-40 knots. So there will be the potential for some strong to severe storms to develop across the area.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The cold front is expected to stall to the south Friday and into the weekend, before possibly lifting north of the area on Monday.
leading to possible unsettled weather. A couple of waves of low pressure are expected to move across the area as the front stalls near the area Friday and Saturday. This will lead to a period of possible unsettled weather with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. As these disturbances move to the east Sunday, it is possible that the shower activity will diminish on Sunday. However, another area of low pressure could begin to move into the area Sunday night into Monday, bringing addition unsettled conditions to the area.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Today...VFR. Mostly clear skies during the afternoon. South- southwest winds around 5-10 kt. High confidence.
Tonight...Prevailing VFR. Light and variable winds. Some patchy fog possible, but forecast currently does not call for anything more widespread than that. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Wednesday...Generally VFR except lower conditions possible around daybreak.
Wednesday night-Thursday night...Sub-VFR conditions possible with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...VFR conditions expected with a slight chance of showers during the day.
Friday night-Saturday...Chance of showers with periods of lower conditions possible.
MARINE
Marine conditions are expected to remain below small craft advisory criteria. Light and variable winds this morning will become more S to SSW this afternoon into the overnight period around 10-15 kt with occasional gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2-3 feet.
Outlook...
Wednesday-Saturday...Conditions expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels. However, winds will gust around 20 knots at times and seas could rise to 4 feet at times.
Rip Currents...
Winds today will increase to 5-15 mph from the south to southeast, while waves offshore waves will be 3-4 feet with an 8 second swell. Also, there is a full moon on Thursday. This will all contribute to a Moderate risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for the beaches both Delaware and New Jersey.
Similar conditions will continue into Wednesday, with slightly stronger winds. As a result, there will continue to be a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and lift threatening rip currents at NJ and DE beaches on Wednesday.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1257 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure shifts to the south today then out to sea Wednesday. A cold front will approach the area Wednesday night, before slowly moving across the area on Thursday, then stalls to our south through the weekend. Several waves of low pressure and may develop and move along this boundary over the weekend into early next week, bringing unsettled weather to the area.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 12:50pm...Minor changes to the current forecast have been made with the early afternoon update. Forecast remains on track.
Another dry and quiet weather day is expected with some fair- weather cumulus this afternoon. High temps should be a bit warmer than yesterday, rising into the low to mid 80s. Temps will be noticeably cooler along/near the shore thanks to light surface winds allowing an afternoon sea breeze circulation to develop.
Another tranquil night with mostly clear skies and calm winds. Light SSW flow should inhibit much organized fog outside the immediate coast, but some patchy fog will be possible. Lows in the mid 50s to around 60.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will move farther away from the area and out to sea on Wednesday, losing its effect on the weather across the area. Dry conditions are expected early in the day on Wednesday, but showers will be possible by the end of the day as a mid/upper level disturbance moves in to the area. Showers and thunderstorms become more likely on Wednesday night as a pre-frontal trough may develop across the area while the aforementioned mid/upper level disturbance slowly moves across the area. Showers and thunderstorms become even more likely on Thursday and into Thursday evening as the cold front moves across the area. There is some instability forecast across the area, with CAPE values potentially reaching 1000-2000 J/kg, with some shear across the area with 30-40 knots. So there will be the potential for some strong to severe storms to develop across the area.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The cold front is expected to stall to the south Friday and into the weekend, before possibly lifting north of the area on Monday.
leading to possible unsettled weather. A couple of waves of low pressure are expected to move across the area as the front stalls near the area Friday and Saturday. This will lead to a period of possible unsettled weather with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. As these disturbances move to the east Sunday, it is possible that the shower activity will diminish on Sunday. However, another area of low pressure could begin to move into the area Sunday night into Monday, bringing addition unsettled conditions to the area.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Today...VFR. Mostly clear skies during the afternoon. South- southwest winds around 5-10 kt. High confidence.
Tonight...Prevailing VFR. Light and variable winds. Some patchy fog possible, but forecast currently does not call for anything more widespread than that. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Wednesday...Generally VFR except lower conditions possible around daybreak.
Wednesday night-Thursday night...Sub-VFR conditions possible with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...VFR conditions expected with a slight chance of showers during the day.
Friday night-Saturday...Chance of showers with periods of lower conditions possible.
MARINE
Marine conditions are expected to remain below small craft advisory criteria. Light and variable winds this morning will become more S to SSW this afternoon into the overnight period around 10-15 kt with occasional gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2-3 feet.
Outlook...
Wednesday-Saturday...Conditions expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels. However, winds will gust around 20 knots at times and seas could rise to 4 feet at times.
Rip Currents...
Winds today will increase to 5-15 mph from the south to southeast, while waves offshore waves will be 3-4 feet with an 8 second swell. Also, there is a full moon on Thursday. This will all contribute to a Moderate risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for the beaches both Delaware and New Jersey.
Similar conditions will continue into Wednesday, with slightly stronger winds. As a result, there will continue to be a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and lift threatening rip currents at NJ and DE beaches on Wednesday.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMTN MARTIN STATE,MD | 12 sm | 26 min | SE 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 75°F | 68°F | 78% | 30.03 | |
| KBWI BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTL THURGOOD MARSHALL,MD | 22 sm | 22 min | var 05 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 81°F | 59°F | 48% | 29.99 |
Tolchester Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:25 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 05:46 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 06:15 AM EDT 1.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:24 PM EDT 0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:39 PM EDT 1.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:42 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:25 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 05:46 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 06:15 AM EDT 1.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:24 PM EDT 0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:39 PM EDT 1.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:42 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Tolchester Beach, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 0.8 |
| 3 am |
| 1.2 |
| 4 am |
| 1.5 |
| 5 am |
| 1.8 |
| 6 am |
| 1.9 |
| 7 am |
| 1.9 |
| 8 am |
| 1.7 |
| 9 am |
| 1.4 |
| 10 am |
| 1.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:47 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:25 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 04:29 AM EDT 1.06 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:47 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:00 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:16 AM EDT -0.93 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:57 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:16 PM EDT 0.41 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:42 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 07:42 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:41 PM EDT -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:47 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:25 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 04:29 AM EDT 1.06 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:47 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:00 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:16 AM EDT -0.93 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:57 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:16 PM EDT 0.41 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:42 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 07:42 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:41 PM EDT -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.3 |
| 1 am |
| 0.1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.5 |
| 3 am |
| 0.8 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.8 |
| 7 am |
| 0.5 |
| 8 am |
| 0 |
| 9 am |
| -0.4 |
| 10 am |
| -0.8 |
| 11 am |
| -0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 0 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.6 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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