Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 8:58 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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FXUS61 KILN 121748 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 148 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over the area will move off to the east tonight and Monday. Low pressure will move out of the Ozarks and track east across Kentucky Monday night through Wednesday resulting in unsettled conditions across the region.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
High pressure extends across the area. There will be a good deal of sun with just a few cumulus/cirrus developing.
Temperatures will be a bit warmer than yesterday with highs in the lower to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
Tail end of a weak short wave passing across the Great Lakes will brush by the area this evening. This could keep some clouds in northern counties before clearing after midnight.

Surface ridge axis will be in place to the east of the area but its influence will persist well into Monday. The mid level ridge axis will translate eastward during the day which will then allow increasing mid and upper level moisture to stream into the area during the afternoon. While primary forcing will still be west of the region through the end of the day, cannot rule out a few showers developing into western counties, primarily along and west of I-75.

Modest warming trend will continue with lows in the lower to mid 50s and highs in the mid 70s to around 80.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Low pressure advancing from Missouri to Kentucky will bring widespread showers and a few thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday. Severe weather appears unlikely from an environment containing less than 500 J/KG CAPE and relatively weak winds aloft. Showers will diminish Tuesday night and Wednesday as the system moves east, while northerly winds gust over 20 knots.
Thursday looks to be dry under a ridge of high pressure. A frontal boundary will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms on Friday. A few more showers and storms will be possible on Saturday in residual moisture behind the front.

Temperature forecast starts near normal with highs in the low to mid 70s Tuesday, with highs perhaps a degree or two cooler on Wednesday under the northerly flow. A modest warming trend is indicated for the rest of the period, resulting in highs in the mid and upper 70s in most locations, with 80 possible on Saturday near the Ohio River.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
North to south surface ridge axis was located across the region this afternoon. Only a FEW high based cumulus clouds and a FEW cirrus clouds were noted. Winds will shift to the west/southwest as the axis passes by. Winds will become southerly in nature by 00Z Monday.

For tonight, surface ridge will continue east. A southerly flow pattern can be expected at the surface between the departing high and a frontal system sagging southeast into the western Great Lakes. Just some SCT cirrus is forecast overnight. There could be some shallow MVFR mist at KLUK between 08Z and 12Z.

On Monday, a mid level ridge axis over the middle Ohio Valley will pass off to the east. This will allow an increase in mid and high clouds to occur from the west during the day. Some diurnal cumulus will develop around 16Z as southerly winds increase and become locally gusty between 15 and 20 knots.
Moisture ahead of the next weather system to our southwest may bring a low chance of showers near KCVG toward 00Z Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are likely Monday night into Wednesday, with a period of IFR ceilings and visibilities possible. Thunderstorms will also be possible Monday night into Tuesday night. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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