Ozawkie, KS Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ozawkie, KS

June 16, 2024 6:00 PM CDT (23:00 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:52 PM
Moonrise 2:47 PM   Moonset 1:23 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ozawkie, KS
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Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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FXUS63 KTOP 161948 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions continue through at least Tuesday with heat indices in the 90s to near 100 degrees each afternoon.

- Active pattern sets up midweek with several rounds of storms from late Tuesday into Thursday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Southwesterly upper flow resides over the Central Plains this afternoon in between a western US trough and a southeast US ridge.
The shortwave that brought storms to the area this morning has progressed into the Mississippi Valley with subsidence in its wake leading to clearing skies. Breezy southwest winds and the emergence of the sun has lead to another steamy day as temperatures have climbed into the upper 80s and low 90s and heat indices in the 90s to near 100 degrees. Southeastward advancement of the aforementioned western trough into the Rockies tonight into Monday will lead to a deepening surface low across eastern Colorado. Southerly low-level flow strengthens in response causing surface winds to stay elevated overnight before increasing Monday. Record warm lows for June 17 may be in jeopardy; see Climate section below for details. There is a low (<15%) chance that evening convection across southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas has enough steam to make it into north central Kansas, but convection will likely dissipate before it impacts the forecast area.

Sustained winds of 20-30mph and gusts of 30-40mph are expected through the day Monday, strongest across north central Kansas where speeds approach wind advisory levels for a few hours. The HRRR has a 20-30% chance for a few hours of advisory level sustained winds across north central Kansas whereas the NBM is a bit higher at around 50%. Confidence isn't high enough to issue an advisory, but it will be quite windy regardless. Highs top out in the mid to upper 90s Monday afternoon with heat indices approaching 100 degrees in spots.

The tight pressure gradient remains into Tuesday as the trough ejects across the Northern Plains, shunting a cold front into the region from the northwest Tuesday evening. The displacement of the trough well to the north will lead to the boundary stalling across the area. The placement of the front remains uncertainty, but ample instability and a continuous influx of moisture from the low-level jet will lead to an axis of storms and heavy rainfall along the front Tuesday night into Wednesday. A few storms could be strong to severe during this timeframe, but the increased forcing along with storm interactions will likely keep this potential on the low end.
Best chances for storms currently reside across the northwest half of the forecast area where NBM probabilities of at least 1" of rain are 40-65%. Models are in decent agreement in the front lifting north Wednesday night into Thursday with dry time returning sometime Thursday. Rain and cloud cover lead to "cooler" temperatures Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 80s.
Chances for storms return this weekend as another cold front moves through the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions prevail. South winds remain gusty through the period, outside of a brief period around sunset where gusts may subside. A 45-50kt low-level jet may lead to some low-level turbulence overnight, especially if surface winds are weaker than forecast.
Winds strengthen further on Monday with gusts of 30-35kts by 14z.

CLIMATE
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Record Warm Low Temperatures

June 17 Record Forecast Concordia 75 (2018) 77 Topeka 78 (1918) 75

June 18

Record Forecast Concordia 80 (1953) 75 Topeka 81 (2021) 78

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KTOP PHILIP BILLARD MUNI,KS 13 sm67 minS 0910 smPartly Cloudy90°F73°F59%29.75
KLWC LAWRENCE MUNI,KS 19 sm68 minSSW 15G259 smPartly Cloudy91°F72°F53%29.76
KFOE TOPEKA RGNL,KS 21 sm67 minS 12G2010 smMostly Cloudy88°F72°F59%29.76
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Topeka, KS,




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