DISCUSSION
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

The synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged this afternoon with an upper ridge extending from the southwest US into the northern and central Plains and an area of cutoff energy across the southern Plains. Little change in the airmass has led to a very similar day to yesterday with temperatures warming into the 90s area-wide. As has been observed the past several days, a stray shower or storm could develop in the uncapped and unstable airmass this afternoon, but chances remain below 15%.

The aforementioned southern Plains energy lifts north tonight into Saturday, bringing increased cloud cover to eastern Kansas along with the chance for some showers and storms Saturday afternoon. The main precipitation axis will be east of the area, but ascent from the passing wave and decreasing CIN through the day will allow for scattered showers and storms to develop. Weak shear should limit the intensity of storms and any activity is expected to wane with sunset. Highs Saturday will be a few degrees lower than today especially for areas that have cloud cover and showers/storms.

Another shortwave moves in from the west Sunday morning and could generate additional showers and storms. CAMs are in decent agreement with this precipitation making into north central Kansas, so slight chance PoPs have been added. Flow across the central Plains becomes quasi-zonal Sunday into the middle of the week as the ridge builds east over the southern Plains. Southerly WAA will bump temperatures back into the 90s with heat indices across north central Kansas in the 100-104 degree range Sunday afternoon. A perturbation along the northern fringe of the ridge will eject east Sunday evening-night and increase thunderstorm chances. While details in location and coverage of storms remain unknown, the environment will feature 1000- 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and effective shear around 30kts which will support some strong to severe storms. Stay tuned as details will become clearer as the event approaches.

Heat concerns rise Monday into the middle of the week as 850mb temperatures warm to 24-28 degrees C, boosting highs to near or above 100 degrees each day. Dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s will create heat index values of 104-110 degrees each afternoon. Waves of energy ride the ridge through this timeframe and bring at least small chances for showers and storms as they pass. Guidance shows the timing of these waves to be mainly during the overnight hours which would allow temperatures to recover from any cloud cover or precipitation during the day. While a change in the timing of precipitation could lead to lower daytime highs, confidence remains high in a several day period of dangerous heat from Monday through at least Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

VFR conditions prevail with just some diurnal cumulus at 6-8kft this afternoon. Winds remain southeasterly at 5-10kts.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.