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FXUS63 KTOP 110415 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1015 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Near to above seasonal normals for the week into next weekend.

- Continuing to trend mostly dry overall with major storm systems positioned north and south of the region.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 221 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Current satellite and upper air obs show a major trough axis from the Hudson Bay extending through the Great Lakes region into the southeastern CONUS which is keeping a storm system stretched along the eastern seaboard. Northwest flow predominates across the center of the country with a broad ridge over the western CONUS. This leave dry conditions in place across the area. The only moisture remains well aloft in the atmosphere with a few mid to high clouds spilling over the western ridge and streaming into the area for the balance of the afternoon. A ridge of surface high pressure is situated just east of the are into western Missouri giving way to a light west to southwesterly breeze this afternoon with pleasant conditions in place for an early December afternoon.

Overall the weather pattern looks to remain on the quiet side for the foreseeable future. Dry trends continue to look like the primary outcome through this work week into next weekend. Most ensemble and deterministic solutions suggest that return flow tends to keep Gulf moisture south of the area perhaps giving south central Kansas the best chance for measurable precipitation into Wednesday through the end of the week. This is due to the prevailing forecast solutions keeping with a northwest flow regime transitioning to a split flow pattern with the mid week Pacific trough digging south over the Desert Southwest becoming more of a cut-off low before merging with southern stream energy and moist flow aloft in association with the subtropical jet stream over northern Mexico into the deep southern CONUS. Any resulting amplification of this pattern would favor the intensification of a storm system south of the area. Since the Pacific system has yet to be fully sampled but upper air observations, there could be a slight shift overall which may still provide small chances for generally less than a 15% chance of mostly rain into mid week over central and southern Kansas areas.
Meanwhile, mostly dry conditions are expected to persist with temperatures mostly near or slightly above normal outside a minor cold frontal passage with reinforcing modified cooler air spilling down through the northern Plains into Tuesday and staying in place through Wednesday. Overall, very mild and nice weather for December looks to be in place through next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1014 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

VFR as light southerly winds veer to the west in the afternoon near or just below 10 kts sustained.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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