Ozawkie, KS Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ozawkie, KS

June 14, 2024 6:13 AM CDT (11:13 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:51 PM
Moonrise 12:48 PM   Moonset 12:43 AM 
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Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 600 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024


- A few strong to severe storms possible late tonight and again Saturday, with the best chances in north-central Kansas.

- Warm temperatures with highs in the 90s continue through early next week.

Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Yesterday evening's cold front has moved fully south across the area, and is now sitting across southeast Kansas. This will keep temperatures today cooler than yesterday, but without a Aloft, shortwave ridging will be in place today ahead of a cutoff low lifting northeast out of the Desert Southwest. Can't completely rule out a shower or two this afternoon south of I-70 with isentropic ascent north of the boundary to our south. However the better precipitation chances will hold off until overnight. This will occur as easterly upslope flow over the High Plains develops evening convection that gradually shifts east across western into central Kansas. The stronger upper dynamics and low-level jet will both remain off to the west and northwest, and even across western Kansas aren't very impressive. Effective shear is quite weak, on the order of 15-20 kts. So any complex that does develop out west should be weakening as it moves into north-central Kansas after midnight.
Can't rule out some brief gusty winds or small hail with any updraft that briefly pulses up, given 2500 J/kg of MUCAPE, but overall the severe weather risk appears on the low end.

The upper low continues lifting northeast during the day Saturday as it becomes absorbed into the main flow. WAA and deep mixing ahead of the system will help temperatures climb into the mid 90s. This will also help to erode the cap, allowing scattered thunderstorms to develop mid/late afternoon. Some uncertainty as to where and how many storms develop, though the better dynamics would favor north- central Kansas again. With around 30 kts of shear and 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE, the overall environment is favorable for a few strong to severe storms. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main hazards.

Sunday into early Tuesday look drier but still plenty hot, as strong ridging builds over the eastern CONUS. High probability (over 90%)
that temperatures will be over 90 each day, with heat indices approaching 100 at times. By late Tuesday into Wednesday, a deepening western trough will push a frontal boundary southeast across the central Plains. Differences exist in guidance in how strong and far east this front will be, as the anomalous ridging to the east will keep the western trough from moving too far east.
Regardless, moisture transport ahead of the boundary will increase precipitation chances for mid-week.

Issued at 559 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Generally easterly winds around 7-10 kts will continue through the period, along with VFR ceilings. Can't rule out a shower or storm, mainly after midnight tonight, but the better chances for this will stay northwest of KMHK.


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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KTOP PHILIP BILLARD MUNI,KS 13 sm20 minENE 0610 smClear73°F68°F83%29.99
KLWC LAWRENCE MUNI,KS 19 sm21 minE 0410 smClear72°F66°F83%29.99
KFOE TOPEKA RGNL,KS 21 sm20 minENE 0410 smClear70°F66°F88%30.00
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