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FXUS63 KTOP 081718 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1118 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Update to aviation forecast discussion

DISCUSSION
Issued at 249 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Key Messages:

- 20-50% chance for light rain this afternoon and evening, mainly across east central Kansas.

- Dry with seasonal temperatures Saturday into the middle of next week.

Discussion:

Several perturbations in the flow are evident in water vapor imagery across the western and central CONUS this morning. Mid and high clouds are streaming overhead as a wave approaches from the southwest with another wave following closely behind. A closed low over North Dakota has pushed a weak cold front into the area; this front's progression has slowed and it currently resides along a St.
Joseph to Topeka to Emporia line. Boundary layer moisture remains high ahead of the front with dewpoints in the upper 40s to near 50 which, coupled with light winds in the trough axis, could (50%) support some patchy fog this morning.

A surface low centered in the TX/OK panhandles will lift northeast along the cold front through the day today as the second wave ejects across the Plains. Isentropic ascent to the north of the surface low will generate light rain mainly for areas along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike beginning late this morning and ending by late this evening. Moisture depth is limited with forecast soundings showing saturation in the 850-700mb layer with dry air above and below this layer. Another weak perturbation could (15-20%) generate some light rain farther northwest during the evening, but again moisture quality is an issue. Soundings in this area show mid-level saturation, but depict very dry air below 600-700mb. Most of the precipitation falling into this dry layer is likely to evaporate before reaching the ground, but some drizzle or light rain making it to the surface is plausible. Confidence remains high (>95%) in all precipitation falling as rain as precipitation ends before temperatures cool enough to support any wintry precipitation.

Northwest flow settles in for the weekend with a tight pressure gradient leading to breezy conditions on Saturday before winds relax for Sunday. Highs will be near climatological norms this weekend in the mid 40s. Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are expected through the middle of next week when uncertainty increases as a closed low develops across the southwest US by Wednesday.
Variability is large in how this system evolves, but precipitation chances will increase sometime late next week once the system ejects east.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a chance for some light rain at TOP and FOE from 21Z-02Z, otherwise dry.
Winds northeast near 10kts, become northwest after 21Z. Pressure gradient tightens on Saturday with northwest winds around 15kts gusting to around 24kts after 15Z.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.

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