Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ozawkie, KS
May 19, 2024 3:34 PM CDT (20:34 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:04 AM Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 3:58 PM Moonset 2:59 AM |
FXUS63 KTOP 191954 AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 254 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Severe storm potential continues for late this afternoon and this evening across central and north central Kansas, then across northeast and east central Kansas later this evening.
- The potential for severe thunderstorms continues into the early portions of the work week with the greatest concern still focused into Tuesday afternoon, mainly over northeast and into east-central Kansas.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
At 19Z, an outflow boundary was observed across west central into northwest Kansas. Mesoanalysis shows a sharp cut of in surfaced based CAPE along the boundary. Water vapor satellite shows a mid level wave moving northeast across northern New Mexico into Colorado. This wave will continue to move into southwest Kansas later this afternoon and evening. An approaching mid level 50kt jet was moving northeast increasing ascent into southwest Kansas at 19Z.
Radar at 19Z had a supercell along the frontal boundary in Trego and Ellis counties in west central Kansas. Storms were also developing across southeast Colorado. Instability and shear favor severe storms with large hail and damaging winds the main hazards. Tornado potently will be best with storms that form and move along or cross the frontal boundary where best low level helicity will exist.
The potential for damaging winds also increases as storms form a into line segments and progress eastward this evening as winds may approach 80 mph or higher. Initial storms look to move northeast then turn to the east as the line develops.
The threat will continue across parts of northeast and east central Kansas later this evening, but if storms become outflow dominant then the severe potential will decrease. The mid level wave moves northeast of the forecast area after 06Z with precipitation moving east through the night and ending from west to east. In addition to the severe weather, locally heavy rainfall will be possible as precipitable water remains high, about 1.5 standard deviations above normal.
A lull is expected on Monday during the day in the wake of tonight's system. Storms are forecast to develop in the western Highs Plains Monday late afternoon and evening. These storms may form a cluster or MCS and then move eastward across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas Monday night. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be the main hazards along with locally heavy rainfall.
On Tuesday another chance for severe weather is expected as a mid level trough and associated cold front move across the central Plains. The better forcing remains to the north of the area with northern Kansas on the southern end. Scattered storms may develop along the frontal boundary in the afternoon into evening hours. All hazards will be possible with these storms.
Wednesday will be dry and cooler with highs in the 70s. Thursday is looking dry for much if not all of the area and temps warm back into the lower 80s. A southwesterly flow across the Plains will lead to small chances of convection next Friday through Sunday.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
VFR conditions are expected outside of convection. Short term models differ on the timing of convection into the terminals and have opted to just go with vcts for a period at each site.
Will likely need to refine as storms develop. WInds will be southeasterly to southerly, initially starting out at MHK from the northeast, but a warm front will lift north with southerly winds expected for much of the period.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 254 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Severe storm potential continues for late this afternoon and this evening across central and north central Kansas, then across northeast and east central Kansas later this evening.
- The potential for severe thunderstorms continues into the early portions of the work week with the greatest concern still focused into Tuesday afternoon, mainly over northeast and into east-central Kansas.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
At 19Z, an outflow boundary was observed across west central into northwest Kansas. Mesoanalysis shows a sharp cut of in surfaced based CAPE along the boundary. Water vapor satellite shows a mid level wave moving northeast across northern New Mexico into Colorado. This wave will continue to move into southwest Kansas later this afternoon and evening. An approaching mid level 50kt jet was moving northeast increasing ascent into southwest Kansas at 19Z.
Radar at 19Z had a supercell along the frontal boundary in Trego and Ellis counties in west central Kansas. Storms were also developing across southeast Colorado. Instability and shear favor severe storms with large hail and damaging winds the main hazards. Tornado potently will be best with storms that form and move along or cross the frontal boundary where best low level helicity will exist.
The potential for damaging winds also increases as storms form a into line segments and progress eastward this evening as winds may approach 80 mph or higher. Initial storms look to move northeast then turn to the east as the line develops.
The threat will continue across parts of northeast and east central Kansas later this evening, but if storms become outflow dominant then the severe potential will decrease. The mid level wave moves northeast of the forecast area after 06Z with precipitation moving east through the night and ending from west to east. In addition to the severe weather, locally heavy rainfall will be possible as precipitable water remains high, about 1.5 standard deviations above normal.
A lull is expected on Monday during the day in the wake of tonight's system. Storms are forecast to develop in the western Highs Plains Monday late afternoon and evening. These storms may form a cluster or MCS and then move eastward across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas Monday night. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be the main hazards along with locally heavy rainfall.
On Tuesday another chance for severe weather is expected as a mid level trough and associated cold front move across the central Plains. The better forcing remains to the north of the area with northern Kansas on the southern end. Scattered storms may develop along the frontal boundary in the afternoon into evening hours. All hazards will be possible with these storms.
Wednesday will be dry and cooler with highs in the 70s. Thursday is looking dry for much if not all of the area and temps warm back into the lower 80s. A southwesterly flow across the Plains will lead to small chances of convection next Friday through Sunday.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
VFR conditions are expected outside of convection. Short term models differ on the timing of convection into the terminals and have opted to just go with vcts for a period at each site.
Will likely need to refine as storms develop. WInds will be southeasterly to southerly, initially starting out at MHK from the northeast, but a warm front will lift north with southerly winds expected for much of the period.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KTOP PHILIP BILLARD MUNI,KS | 13 sm | 41 min | var 15 | 10 sm | Clear | 90°F | 63°F | 41% | 29.86 | |
| KLWC LAWRENCE MUNI,KS | 19 sm | 42 min | S 13G23 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 90°F | 64°F | 43% | 29.87 | |
| KFOE TOPEKA RGNL,KS | 21 sm | 41 min | S 17 | 10 sm | Clear | 88°F | 63°F | 43% | 29.86 |
Topeka, KS,
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