Friday, March5, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Crystal Bay, NV

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 5:58PM Friday March 5, 2021 8:43 PM PST (04:43 UTC) Moonrise 12:34AMMoonset 10:28AM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crystal Bay, NV
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Area Discussion for - Reno, NV
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FXUS65 KREV 060043 AAA AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Reno NV 443 PM PST Fri Mar 5 2021

UPDATE.

A quick look at the latest guidance and we are going to go ahead with an upgrade to wind advisory for the Tahoe Basin down through Mono county for tonight into Saturday morning. The strongest winds will be from South Lake Tahoe down through Lee Vining, mainly around midnight to around 6AM Saturday morning. As precipitation begins to spillover tonight, this will help to temper the winds. Expect to see wind gusts in the valleys up to 55 mph with wind prone areas, including canyons and exposed passes over US395 in Mono County with gusts of 60-80 mph at times during the wee morning hours on Saturday.

The other variable that needs to be discussed is the elevated fire danger tonight as the winds increase. The lower valleys along the US-395 corridor, mainly around Bridgeport, Walker, Coleville could see elevated fire danger from the high winds and low humidity tonight. We have had below average precip in the last few weeks and we haven't even gotten into the "green-up" of vegetation yet. Given these conditions our fire danger will likely be elevated through the early morning hours before sunrise, but the main limiting factor will be that the winds come through overnight and not during the peak daytime heating and dryness. -Hoon

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. /Issued 258 PM PST Fri Mar 5 2021/

SYNOPSIS .

A fast-moving system will bring a modest Sierra snowfall along with breezy to windy conditions tonight into Saturday. High winds are possible for wind-prone areas along Highway 395 in Mono County. A pattern change to more active weather is likely with cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and periodic chances for rain and snow for much of next week.

SHORT TERM .

A cold front stuck near the Oregon and northern California coast will make a dash for northeast CA and western NV late tonight into Saturday morning as it gets a push from a sharp upper low that will move over northeast CA/northwest NV Saturday. Snowfall totals across northeast CA above 5000-5500 feet and in the high Sierra north of Ebbetts Pass still look to pick up a modest 2 to 6 inches. In the Tahoe Basin and for foothills out into far western NV, the rapid movement of the system is expected to keep snowfall totals light at best. For the Tahoe Basin, between 0.5" and 2" is expected with a 20% chance for 2-4". Out into the foothills (above ~5000 ft) north and west of Reno, a dusting to 0.5" is possible with a 20% chance for up to 1". Any snow should abruptly cut off before 10 AM Saturday as the system high-tails it off into Idaho and northeast Oregon.

Of larger concern than the modest Sierra snowfall is the strong wind possibilities ahead of the front, especially from far southern Douglas County south along Hwy 395 to around Lee Vining. The High Wind Watch raised for Mono County for late tonight and Saturday morning continues with another look for a possible upgrade expected this evening. The potential for strong wind gusts over 50 mph remains enhanced for the South Lake area and for many spots in the lee of the Sierra, especially for wind-prone spots along Highway 395 in Mono County. The wind flow aloft is mostly south to west which favors 395 north of Mammoth (NW flow aloft would favor Mammoth southward) for the strongest wind potential.

Travelers along Highway 395 late tonight and Saturday morning need to be prepared for sudden bursts of strong winds (60-80 mph possible) at the mouths of canyons in Mono County. While not the main focus, the southern and southwestern parts of Douglas County could also see a few hours with strong wind gusts up to 60 mph as a cold front approaches after midnight.

After the cold front moves through Saturday morning, winds will switch to west to northwest with the threat for high winds falling off quickly. However, it will still be breezy (gusts 20-35 mph) with concern for boaters remaining through at least early afternoon. Temperatures will fall closer to seasonal normals Saturday (highs 40s Sierra and 50s lower valleys). -Snyder

LONG TERM . Monday into mid-March .

Main Message: Expect a pattern change through mid-next week with colder temperatures, breezy winds, and chances for precipitation.

The long term forecast continues to be a mixed bag of potential outcomes at this time. Forecast confidence remains moderate to even somewhat strong in regards to the overall synoptic pattern over much of the West next week with the GEFS, EPS, and 3-7 Day WPC Clusters all showing a deep, longwave trough.

Wind . Moderate Confidence: Not anticipating any significant wind under this pattern as guidance shows much of the strong, upper- level jet support positioned over southern California and extending into the desert Southwest during this time. However, according to the majority of ECMWF ensemble members sampled at several locations throughout the forecast area, Monday afternoon into the evening hours looks to be the strongest wind day of the week as the trough with embedded cut-off low pressure system treks along the California coast. This potential setup could result in region-wide west- southwest gusts in the 20-45 mph range. Of course higher gusts likely for the Sierra ridges.

Temperatures . Moderate to Strong Confidence: Below average high and low temperatures are expected from Monday through Thursday of next week across the region under the trough. Nothing crazy, but it will most likely feel chilly, raw, and dreary out there with the assistance of partly to mostly cloudy conditions and scattered rain/snow showers. As of now, temperatures look to begin a warming trend Friday as high pressure tries to build in from the west. However, 25% of the Day 7 WPC Clusters do show the low pressure system sticking around a bit longer which could delay warming to the weekend.

Precipitation . Low Confidence: The trend has been on the downward path and continues to be that way this afternoon. Given the time of year, these early Spring, cut-off lows tend to be a tricky thing to forecast when it comes to precipitation for the Sierra and western Nevada. Following this trend using a blend of the NBM, GFS, ECMWF, RFC, and WPC QPF guidance . total snow and liquid forecast amounts have decreased accordingly from Monday through Wednesday, but not by much compared to last night's forecast. The bulk of the moisture should take place over the Sierra with help from orographic lift leading to sufficient forcing. A sharp cut- off in amounts is likely at this time for much of western Nevada thanks to shadowing. A bit more confident in this scenario panning out due to the parent southerly flow and lack of forcing as the low progresses southward along the coast by Wednesday. As it stands now, the NBM snowfall probabilities have a 45% chance for greater than 4" of snow by Thursday for communities around Lake Tahoe and a 35% chance for greater than 8" for Donner Pass. As previously stated, most of the precipitation and snowfall is likely to take place along the Sierra crest and western slopes with a few inches to trace amounts for the western Nevada foothills and into the valleys. Having said this, low confidence exists in this forecast at this time due to the potential pattern. We could end up with a wetter scenario with the possibility for deformation bands to setup or we could see very little moisture if the low decides to split with most of its energy missing the region altogether and focused more towards the south. As of now, we are gravitating more towards the drier scenario, but with a grain of salt.

Conditions look to begin improving on Thursday with precipitation chances diminishing as high pressure builds in from the west. Tranquil conditions with warmer temperatures is possible for Friday. A more stable pattern is probable for next weekend into mid-March, but confidence in that is pretty much non-existent at this time given multiple different outcomes according to the long range ensemble data. -LaGuardia

AVIATION .

South to southwest breezes have picked up to between 20-30 kts for much of northeast CA, far western NV, and for west-central NV along and south of Hwy 50. Winds may ease back in the lower elevations for a while this evening before increasing/peaking late tonight into Saturday morning. Winds will bring turbulence and periods of winds shear, possibly low-level within a few hours around the frontal passage.

The cold front will bring a quick band of snow to the Sierra between 10z-14z Saturday with a few light showers into western Nevada. A couple inches of accumulation on the runway are possible for KTRK/KTVL with perhaps a dusting for KMMH. Spotty showers in western Nevada are unlikely to yield accumulation on runways (just wet tarmac at best). Anticipated widespread mountain obscuration late tonight into Saturday morning with rapidly improving conditions before noon. -Snyder/Dawn

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories. NV . Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST Saturday for Pyramid Lake in NVZ004.

Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Lake Tahoe in NVZ002.

Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Saturday for Lake Tahoe in NVZ002.

CA . Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Saturday CAZ073.

Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Lake Tahoe in CAZ072.

Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Saturday for Lake Tahoe in CAZ072.



For more information from the National Weather Service visit . http://weather.gov/reno


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Truckee-Tahoe, CA10 mi48 minSW 16 G 1910.00 miFair43°F18°F36%1014.2 hPa
Carson City Airport, NV14 mi53 minS 6 G 1410.00 miFair54°F10°F18%1013.9 hPa
South Lake Tahoe, Lake Tahoe Airport, CA21 mi50 minS 12 G 1810.00 miFair45°F11°F25%1013.2 hPa
Reno, Reno Tahoe International Airport, NV23 mi48 minSE 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy54°F11°F18%1011 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTRK

Wind History from TRK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW7SW14
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1 day agoSE3CalmS4SE3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4--S3SW4SW12
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmN3--Calm--W10
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Tide / Current Tables for Sacramento #4, Sacramento River, California
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Sacramento #4
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Fri -- 12:39 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:31 AM PST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:31 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:36 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:06 AM PST     3.05 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:32 PM PST     Last Quarter
Fri -- 06:03 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:31 PM PST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.11.91.51.10.80.60.71.11.92.73.132.82.41.91.410.60.30.20.20.61.2

Tide / Current Tables for Clarksburg #4, Sacramento River, California
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Clarksburg #4
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:39 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:01 AM PST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:31 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:57 AM PST     3.05 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:36 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:32 PM PST     Last Quarter
Fri -- 06:03 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:01 PM PST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.81.410.70.60.81.42.22.83.132.72.31.71.20.80.50.20.20.30.81.41.9

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