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FXUS63 KTOP 021709 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1109 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Update to aviation forecast discussion

DISCUSSION
Issued at 255 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Forecast Highlights:

- Expect areas of patchy dense freezing fog early this morning.

- Warming trend slowly begins over the next couple of days after a couple of weak disturbances pass through the region.

- Warming continues through the work week with highs into the 60s by late week.

- Next major storm system looks to hold off until next weekend.

Forecast Discussion:

Early this morning, the upper air pattern across the CONUS is featuring a longwave trough axis from the northern Plains through the southern Plains as it continues to steadily track east. This is allowing for subtropical moisture to stream into the southern CONUS with dry modified polar air over much of the northern tier states.
Off the west coast a broad ridge is making its way east as well.

Across the local area, the set up near the surface remains favorable for freezing fog to continue develop and perhaps become more widespread with time. Right now east central areas and along the Kansas river valley have seen the most instances of fog with visibilities varying. Much of the fog remains patchy dense category.
Again, clear skies, calm winds, and favorable crossover temperatures favor continued fog across the area. How dense and how widespread remain in question. Bottom line, if traveling proceed with caution if encountering areas of fog. This will last through early morning before lifting to a stratus deck of clouds.

Later today, the first of two last main disturbances advance across the area. Moisture and lift look overall limited so mainly anticipating about a 20% chance for light rain transitioning to light snow for a few hours this evening and then possibly over northeastern and far eastern areas again on Sunday afternoon as another disturbance drifts overhead. Most won't see any accumulations for either of these minor shortwaves.

Overall, temperatures will show a noticeable increase through today and Sunday before reaching the 50s and 60s for much of the work week and into next weekend as a broad ridge builds over the central CONUS. Late next weekend could see the next major storm system come together over the central CONUS which depending on the track of the low could mean all rain or mostly snow for the area. However, this is very low certainty at this point and only a broad outlook. Much can and will change.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

With the weak sfc mixing and dense fog that developed over terminals this morning, models have been struggling on timing of the fog lifting in conjunction with increasing IFR to LIFR stratus observed spreading northeast. Overall thinking is to have dense fog linger on the northern edge of the LIFR stratus before visibilities improve between 1-3SM in the afternoon as the low stratus settles in. Precip probs remain too low and focused east of terminals for a mention. LIFR stratus is likely to linger thru Sunday morning with high uncertainties on timing of the stratus clearing.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.

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Topeka, KS,