Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Delphos, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Broad west to southwesterly flow aloft observed via water vapor this afternoon. Weak perturbations are noted over Nebraska and northern Oklahoma/southeast Kansas. Sfc inverted trough axis has stretched from central KS through southwest Iowa while the sfc cold front is situated from northwest Kansas through southeast Nebraska. Light showers with some isolated thunder associated with the weak embedded wave continues to progress eastward towards far eastern Kansas by the late afternoon. CAMs are struggling to resolve the current situation in northeast Kansas while the environment is sampling 1500 J/KG of MUCAPE and around 20 to 30 kts of effective bulk shear.
Because of this, cannot rule out widely scattered storms developing within this wave after 3 PM into the early evening. If storms develop, the strongest updrafts may contain large hail, gusty winds, and localized heavy rainfall. Given the weaker mid level winds and higher PWAT values above 1 inch, high rainfall rates may lead to localized flooding, especially for areas that have received several inches the last few days.

As the cold front pushes southward overnight, additional scattered storms are possible especially towards central Kansas, aided by a 30 kt low level jet. Overnight convection may be marginally severe with hail up to near quarter size and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. Subsident air behind the front and building heights aloft signal a temporary end to the continuous precip chances by Friday morning as north winds behind the boundary increase from 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Highs are cooler overall on Friday in the mid to upper 60s.

A southern stream embedded wave enters the southern plains late Friday into Saturday and while much of the better midlevel lapse rates are focused over Oklahoma, CAMs are still trying to generate scattered showers, perhaps with some thunder through the afternoon hours. Not anticipating a washout Saturday, generally less than a tenth of an inch of QPF. Scenario repeats late Saturday night through Sunday morning with an additional disturbance, albeit varied on strength and coverage of showers amongst ensembles. Overall severe threat is low for the weekend, cannot rule out small hail or gusty winds within the stronger updrafts.

Severe threat increases once again Monday afternoon and evening as a stout southwest upper trough splits as it ejects into the central plains Monday afternoon and evening. Latest guidance continues to be in decent agreement with the location and timing of the wave. Ample SFC CAPE increases in excess of 3000 J/KG and effective bulk shear is above 50 kts, suggesting convection that is capable of all hazards, especially given that the boundary layer remains capped until peak heating of the late afternoon. Will need to continue monitor trends with this system as it has the potential to be a higher impact severe weather day.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

VFR at terminals for most of the forecast while short term guidance remains inconsistent in coverage of storms this afternoon, especially given the very weak lift in place. Kept the PROB30 mention after 20Z at KMHK and 21Z at KTOP/KFOE for sct. TSRA, ending by the early evening hours. Coverage of storms wanes tonight as the fropa pushes southward, veering light winds to the west northwest. Showers should clear the sites before sunrise as northerly winds increase to near 10kts aft 16Z.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.