Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dollar Point, CA

DISCUSSION

A belt of stronger southwest winds aloft and deep vertical mixing will allow gusty W/SW winds to return to portions of NE California and NW Nevada this afternoon and again Sunday, heightening fire concerns (more details below) and deteriorating boating conditions on lakes in these areas each afternoon. Farther southeast, deeper mid-level moisture and weak instability may be enough to support isolated showers and thunderstorms in Mono, S Lyon, Mineral, and Churchill counties this afternoon, but hi-res ensembles suggest the likelihood of this is 30% or less. Moisture is scoured out on Sunday, reducing shower/storm chances to 10% or less. Otherwise, typical July heat continues this weekend with daytime highs in the 80s and 90s.

A persistent southwest flow regime will extend seasonably hot, dry, and breezy weather through at least the middle of next week, if not longer. However, winds will be more on par of our typical afternoon breezes next week, mitigating fire and recreation impacts somewhat.
A warming trend is favored for the latter half of next week, which may return triple digit heat to lower elevation valleys.

-Salas

AVIATION

Increasing W/SW gusts of 20-30 kts may pose minor LLWS impacts this afternoon, and again Sunday afternoon. There is also a 10-20% chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms near KMMH and KHTH this afternoon. Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions prevail into early next week.

-Salas

FIRE WEATHER

SW/W winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph will overlap with RH reductions of 5-15% for a 3-6 hour period this afternoon across portions of far NE California and NW Nevada -- including the Biscar and Macy fires. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9 PM PDT, but strongest winds arrive after 12 PM PDT.
Nighttime recoveries will be moderate to poor in these areas each night, which may allow fires to actively burn overnight -- especially in W NV where RH struggles to exceed 20-30%.

A few hours of critical wind/RH is expected Sunday afternoon across a similar area, but the duration/coverage should be more limited compared to today. A hot, dry, and breezy weather pattern remains in place next week.

-Salas

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ458.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening NVZ420-458.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ420.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening CAZ270-278.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening CAZ270-278.