Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dollar Point, CA

DISCUSSION

A passing shortwave trough will provide enough forcing and instability to trigger an additional round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The best T-storm potential will concentrate south of US-50 today (25-35% chance with up to 45% along the Sierra crest in Alpine and Mono counties).

Areas between I-80 and US-50 will see lesser chances for T-storms today (10-20%); however, these areas could see more potential for stronger outflow winds around 45 mph (DCAPE: 1000-1200 J/kg)
versus the storms to the south that will have deeper moisture and more localized moderate to heavy rainfall risk. Drier air briefly builds in behind the departing low on Thursday which will leave any lingering T-storm development (10-20% chances) confined to Mono County from about Bridgeport southward.

Mild temperatures will stick with us as highs warm to the low-mid 70s through Thursday with Friday reaching the upper 70s to near 80 for W.Nevada, while Sierra valleys reach the mid-upper 60s.
However, that will all change over the weekend as the next spring storm approaches the region.

The approaching low for the weekend will begin to provide a 15-30% chance of showers across the Sierra and Sierra Front on Friday, but Saturday will be the day with the most widespread rain and snow chances across the region.

Snow levels start above 9500' on Friday before lowering to near 7000' by late Saturday afternoon. While light Sierra snow showers will be possible during this timeframe, the main window to see a couple of inches of slushy accumulations on Sierra passes looks to be Saturday evening into Sunday morning as snow levels dip to near 6000-6500'. W.Nevada is looking at mainly rainfall with around 0.25-0.50" of accumulation through the weekend and up to 0.50-1.00" for portions of the W.Nevada Basin and Range, which will be more impacted by a wrap around rainband on the backside of the low on Sunday. Overall expect cooler weather through the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 50s for W.Nevada and upper 40s for the Sierra. Fuentes

AVIATION

Another round of afternoon-evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible as an upper level trough tracks across the region.
25-35% chances for T-storms with periods of MVFR conditions for KTRK, KTVL, KCXP, and KMEV after 21z with a 10% chance at KRNO.

KMMH will see the best potential (35-40% chance) for T-storm impacts today with initial development possible as early as 18z.
Period of moderate to heavy rainfall, small hail, and mountain top obscurations are also possible today. Fuentes

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.