Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 7:58 PM   Moonset 5:21 AM

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FXUS65 KREV 231935 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1235 PM PDT Tue Apr 23 2024

SYNOPSIS

Periods of showers and thunderstorms today through the start of the weekend with a gradual cooling trend. Anticipate typical thunderstorm risks with gusty outflow winds, dangerous lightning, and localized heavy rain and/or small hail. Be aware of rapidly changing conditions if recreating outdoors.

DISCUSSION

An trough approaching the west coast will bring shower and thunderstorm chances the next few days. We have already seen thunderstorm activity just west of and along the Sierra Crest from Tahoe northward into Plumas and Lassen Counties today, with a few lingering showers across the West Central Nevada Basin and Range.

Per latest high resolution ensemble simulations, storms in NE CA will continue trekking toward the NNE, with additional showers and thunderstorms forming along the afternoon zephyr. This will bring storm chances to western Nevada starting between 3 and 4 pm for areas near a line extending from Douglas and southern Lyon Counties northward toward the Oregon border. This includes Reno/Sparks, Carson/Minden, Yerington, Fernley, Pyramid Lake, Gerlach. Storms could continue through sunset with a 40% chance for any given location in the aforementioned areas to be hit directly. Anticipate potential for lightning, gusty outflow winds, and rain/pellet showers. Additional showers will continue overnight, a 20-40% chance through western Nevada.

Going into Wednesday, the upper trough shifts inland near SoCal, with an area of enhanced forcing and divergence aloft focusing showers and thunderstorms near and south of Hwy-50. Current guidance is showing a 50-70% chance for storm activity for much of Mono, Mineral, Southern Lyon, and Douglas Counties by mid-afternoon, extending north and eastward near the Hwy-95 corridor by the late afternoon and early evening hours. Similar storm impacts should be expected as today, but there is a higher likelihood (40% in any given location) of wetting rains (0.10"+) throughout the areas mentioned. We'll also see chances for accumulating snow in the higher elevations of the Eastern Sierra and White Mountains. Above 8500 ft in the Eastern Sierra, snowfall accumulations of 1-3" are possible. Along the White Mountains above 9000 ft, snowfall accumulations of 4-8" are possible.

Large scale upper trough then moves into the region from the northwest Thursday and into the weekend, bringing enhanced winds on Thursday, followed by much cooler temps Friday. Currently, NBM guidance indicates a 30% chance for gusts to reach 50 mph along the eastern Sierra front, expanding into western Nevada, with the official forecast reflecting a "more likely" 35-40 mph WSW gusts.
High temps Friday will actually fall below normal, or ~20 degrees cooler than what we started the week with. Breezy NW winds will increase the chill factor.

Anticipate widespread chances (50-90%) for showers Thursday PM through Friday PM, along with a 15-25% chance for thunderstorms and/or pellet showers. The colder weather even bring the return of the s-word, aka snow, to elevations above 6500-7000 feet. Road impacts will be minimal and short-lived due to recent warmth and the sun angle this time of the year. There's only a 25% chance to reach 4" of snow in the high Sierra, so we're not talking major storm by any stretch. Just be prepared for significantly different conditions than we saw last weekend.

While a few spotty light showers may linger into Saturday, generally the rest of the weekend will be dry with a slow warm up to near normal. -Dawn

AVIATION

Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will bring reduced CIGS/VIS, but overall conditions will remain VFR due to the higher bases on storms. That being said, mountain tops may become obscured within the clouds. Highest storm chances (40% at any given location)
will be NE CA and then western Nevada from KMEV-KRTS northward, which include KRNO and KCXP, working east toward a KHTH-KNFL-KLOL line into the evening. Typical impacts include gusty and erratic outflow winds, lightning, and localized heavy rain and small hail.

Additional showers may continue overnight, a 25% chance across W NV, with more showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Storms on Wednesday will be focused near and south of Hwy-50 starting mid- afternoon, extending east along and east of the Hwy-95 corridor by late afternoon into the evening. -Dawn

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

Sacramento %234, Sacramento River, California, Tide feet

Clarksburg %234, Sacramento River, California, Tide feet

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