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FXUS65 KREV 100839 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1239 AM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS

A quiet pattern continues across the region through next week as high pressure preserves valley inversions, light winds, and dry conditions. A few light showers may pop up across far northeast California and northwest Nevada late Sunday into Monday. Dry conditions look to continue into the start of next weekend.

DISCUSSION

With the exception of wisps of high clouds passing overhead, the storm track looks to miss our region all together next week. That being said, don't for look for anything other than continued dry conditions with slightly above to near seasonal December temperatures and light winds across the region. There will still be those noteworthy exceptions like patchy early morning freezing fog in the Martis valley, and a few passing showers well to north along the OR border. The latter courteous of a weak upper short wave passing through the ridge Sunday into Monday.

With nothing in the way of any active weather to change the status quo, strong valley inversions will ensure lighter winds and dry conditions prevail across the region. Valley areas will see a buildup of smoke particulates and pollutants, with some reductions in air quality and hazy conditions today, especially in more urban areas of Reno and Carson City. So please take this into consideration if you feel the need to take a deep breath today! Daytime highs region-wide will also benefit from high pressure in place across the region by rising 5-10 degrees above seasonal December averages today and to a lesser degree Monday.

Now a few words for the earlier mentioned short wave projected to brush across northern CA-NV Sunday into Monday. Its passage across the Sierra into northern NV will aid in not only increasing ventilation of area valleys being influenced by strong inversions, but also bringing an increased chance (15-30%) for a few light showers passing across northeast CA and far northwest NV nearer the OR border. But wait, a subsequent weakly forced short wave will follow up back-door like into the east-central Great Basin Tuesday.
A much cooler northerly flow aloft will dampen temperatures a few degrees to near normal values by mid-week that continues into the weekend. As the closed low drops south southern NV Tuesday into Wednesday morning, the Sierra crest will see gusty easterly ridgetop winds peaking 35-40 mph.

Going into next weekend, uncertainty swirls around the chance for any precipitation. Although some ensemble simulations show little deviation from the current state of dry conditions going into next weekend, cluster guidance is holding out that high pressure will nudge east and allow long wave trough over the eastern Pacific to deepen into the west coast early next week. -Amanda

AVIATION

* VFR conditions will prevail through the weekend for regional main terminals. The only exception will be KTRK which may see periods of patchy FZFG overnight before burning off mid-morning.
Light winds and strong valley inversions may lead to hazy conditions across lower valley areas with limited reductions to slantwise visibility expected.

* A weak low pressure system brushing by west to east north of the Sierra may bring enhanced Sierra ridgetop winds Sunday into Monday with gusts topping 40-45 knots at FL100. This may yield areas of turbulence for Sierra terminals through Monday. -Amanda

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

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