Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Incline Village, NV

DISCUSSION

Little change from the continued warm Spring conditions through Thursday. Daytime temperatures will rise a few degrees above seasonal normal with breezy westerly winds gusting to 20-25 mph each afternoon through Thursday. Daytime highs will stay pleasant in the 70s across western NV valleys, and upper 50s and 60s across Sierra locations down to Mono County. The one weather item worth noting is some showers and isolated thunderstorms firing up across portions of northeast CA and northwest NV into southeastern OR.
This convection is the result of an upper short wave lifting northeast over the region. This activity will gradually dissipate around sundown.

Ensemble simulations continue to show an approaching pattern change and more active weather starting early Friday. A broad upper trough and upper closed low are still on track to track into northern and central CA Friday into Saturday, that exit east by Sunday afternoon.
This low pressure system will bring periods of valley rain showers, high elevation mountain snowfall, and breezy southwest winds by Friday that continues through the weekend. Most recent blended guidance is showing for Friday afternoon a 15-20% for isolated thunder across NE-CA to include Mono into southern Lyon and Mineral counties.

ECMWF-Ens multi-model ensemble simulations as well as GFS-Ens simulations are also trending a slightly wetter solution with this incoming system. ECMWF ensemble shift of tails simulations show higher snowfall anomalies from Lassen County south into southern Washoe County that continues west of Highway 395 from Carson City to Mono/Mineral Counties. Although snowfall will be confined above 5000-5500, surrounding foothill areas to include the Virginia City could see something just short of an inch of accumulation.

Latest simulations still project limited available moisture from this system with liquid amounts based on current storm timing and trajectory ranging 0.10" to 0.35". Blended guidance is at present showing up to a 40-50% chance of a very slushy 1-2 inches of accumulated snow over higher mountain passes with slightly higher snowfall totals across the Sierra crest. This will still bring impacts for mountain travel especially overnight Friday into Saturday.

Breezy west-southwest winds over the Sierra ridgetops peaking at 40-50 mph with breezy southwest winds mixing down into western NV with gusts to 30-35 as well as 40 mph across higher foothill areas both Fri and Sat. Look for choppy surface conditions across larger area lakes, and period of moderate mountain wave turbulence and LLWS for aviation concerns to continue Fri and Sat as well.

Unseasonably colder temperatures around 10-15 degrees below seasonal averages with Sierra valleys from NE-CA, south to the Lake Tahoe basin, and Mono County seeing overnight lows dropping below freezing into the mid-high 20s for a brief few hours before day break early Saturday and Sunday morning.

Even though the upper low is exiting into the eastern part of NV Sunday, any drying will be limited with a slight chance for a few lingering light showers holding out across the high Sierra. It will stay relatively cool as well. Blended simulations still projects daytime highs topping out 5-10 degrees below seasonal normal. By early next week, a more robust warming trend will complement the drier conditions as high pressure builds into the Western US. Stay tuned for updates for any changes to forecast details in the coming days.

-Amanda

AVIATION

VFR conditions will largely prevail through Thursday with lighter winds in the morning that give way to breezy west-southwest winds by early afternoon. Wind gusts for main terminal will range 20-25 kts with brief periods of light to moderate turbulence persisting through the afternoon. Look for increasing shower chances and winds by Friday for all main terminal that continues into the weekend.

-Amanda

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.