Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 10:03 PM   Moonset 6:48 AM

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FXUS65 KREV 252011 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 111 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS

Cooler weather along with periods of showers and thunderstorms will persist through early Saturday. Potential thunderstorm risks include gusty outflow winds, dangerous lightning, and localized heavy rain and/or small hail. Please be aware of rapidly changing conditions when outdoors. Drier weather and a slow warming trend are expected to return Sunday through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Just like clockwork, it looks like another weekend of unsettled weather for the Eastern Sierra and Western Nevada. Upper air analysis from this morning shows an upper-level closed low off the coast of northern California. This system will dictate the pattern into early this weekend as it moves inland and deepens over the Great Basin on Friday.

The upper jet associated with this system brushes by our region today, leading to an uptick in northwesterly upper-level winds this afternoon. Surface level winds likely peak around 25-35 mph this evening, and are expected to remain elevated overnight into Friday as the jet continues to dive southward into southern California.
Wind prone areas may see gusts closer to 40-45 mph during this period.

This system will usher much cooler air aloft by this evening, leading to increased instability over the area through early Saturday morning as the upper low traverses the area. This increased stability will promote more widespread shower coverage through this period. High-res guidance showers arrive after sunset this evening, with greatest coverage over the Sierra and Basin & Range as western Nevada and Mono County remain largely shadowed with this first wave.
Shower intensity and areal coverage will decrease around sunrise Friday morning, before daytime heating allows for a reinvigoration of showers areawide in the afternoon. Storm total precipitation has increased slightly in recent guidance, chances for 0.5" of QPF are around 30% the Central Sierra and 15-20% for the Tahoe Basin and Eastern Sierra. Chances for over 0.1" of QPF are around 30-40% for far western Nevada and northeast California valleys, and 70-80% for the Basin & Range. Snow levels will be around 6500-7000 feet for a majority of this event, so some light, slushy snow may accumulate along Sierra passes, especially at night.

The upper-low moves eastward out of our area on Saturday, with dry conditions and lighter winds prevailing through the weekend. A transient upper-level ridge moves in behind the exiting system and introduces more zonal flow across the region by Sunday and into early next week. This pattern will allow for continued dry conditions, with typical afternoon breezes and a gradual warming trend through at least mid-week. About 60% of ensemble clusters show another trough moving into the region by Thursday, indicative of the potential for a return to cooler and more unsettled weather into the first weekend of May. Whitlam

AVIATION

* VFR conditions prevail for all regional terminals. Fl100 winds increase ahead of an incoming system this afternoon, resulting in enhanced surface breezes this afternoon and evening. Surface wind gusts around 20-25 kts are likely for most terminals.

* Widespread rain and high elevation (abv 7000 ft) snow showers are expected to arrive around 03z for Sierra terminals and 06z for western Nevada terminals. Thunderstorm potential will be less than 15%.

* Areal shower coverage decreases around 12z Friday. Reinvigoration in shower activity is expected again by 18z.

Whitlam

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

Sacramento, Sacramento River, California, Tide feet

Sacramento #4
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Thu -- 03:27 AM PDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:15 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:56 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:47 AM PDT     3.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:00 PM PDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:52 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:01 PM PDT     2.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:07 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sacramento #4, Sacramento River, California, Tide feet

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