Tuesday, October19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Incline Village, NV

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 6:15PM Tuesday October 19, 2021 3:29 PM PDT (22:29 UTC) Moonrise 6:10PMMoonset 6:11AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Incline Village, NV
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location: 39.25, -119.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Reno, NV
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FXUS65 KREV 192201 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 301 PM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

SYNOPSIS.

Periods of rain, high elevation snow, and gusty winds return late Tuesday into Wednesday as the active weather pattern continues. More impactful storms are forecast to move through the region Friday and Sunday into Monday with potential for strong winds, soaking rains, and heavy mountain snow.

SHORT TERM.

Incoming system for tonight and Wednesday has trended a bit drier than yesterday, especially for the Tahoe Basin and western NV. However gusty winds up to near 40 mph, perhaps a bit more, are expected tonight and early Wednesday as the low swings into Oregon. After this system departs, a moist onshore flow develops for Thursday with periods of light orographic rain from the Tahoe Basin northward to Plumas and Lassen County.

Winds . Overnight winds still look like a good bet in the Tahoe Basin, Reno- Quad Counties and northeast California. Simulations are showing gusts of 25-40 mph with a 30% chance of peak gusts exceeding 40 mph. Sierra ridge level winds will rise up near 80 mph, may may briefly reach 90-100 mph early Wednesday AM. Winds will subside later Wednesday, but a steady south-southwest winds may persist through Thursday night.

Rain/Snow . Snow accumulations in the Sierra are looking less confident today with the drier trend in the simulations. However, light accumulations less than an inch are still possible, especially above 6000 feet. Liquid totals should remain less than 0.25 inch around the Tahoe Basin into Wednesday AM, with up to 0.4-0.6 inch for portions of Lassen and Plumas Counties. Once the moist onshore flow sets up behind this system later Wednesday, periods of orographic rain with snow levels rising above 8000-9000 ft will continue in the northern Sierra as far south as Carson Pass area. Additional totals could be as much as 0.75-1.00 inch with he main focus toward Lassen, Plumas, and Sierra Counties. Brong

LONG TERM. Friday through the middle of next week .

. MAJOR STORM ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK .

A fast-moving trough swings through Friday. This will bring breezy conditions, with peak gusts generally in the 20-35 mph range, but with wind-prone areas possibly gusting to 35-45 mph. Wetting rainfall (0.10-0.25" or more) is looking likely in northeast California from Alpine County northward and across far northwest Nevada, with rapidly diminishing chances south and eastward with modest deep-layer forcing. As for snowfall, it looks relegated mainly to the highest passes as the main cold air pool remains north of the region. However, there remains a 1 in 4 chance for up to 1/2" over the main Tahoe passes late Friday although even then it might be too light to accumulate on roads with temperatures in the 30s.

There will be a break in the weather Friday night and Saturday, although isolated to scattered showers will remain possible especially in northeast CA as moist westerly flow (but little forcing for spillover into western NV) continues. It will on the cooler side Saturday with highs topping out around 10 degrees below average.

Now for the major period of interest -- Saturday night/Sunday through Monday .

* Winds have the potential to be stronger than with Friday's wave, with a number of EPS members showing gusts over 55 mph into far western Nevada Sunday-Monday. However, sounding from the GFS imply a quick burst of wind Sunday as the atmospheric river nears followed by rapid moistening in the plume which may dampen chances for damaging winds. In any case, the pattern is such that we could certainly keep breezy conditions going even while it is raining.

* As far as precipitation, ensembles continue to show solid amounts for eastern CA and western NV Saturday night through Monday. However, note that the currently forecast amounts are just one possible solution and on the higher end of possibility, especially late Sunday into Monday and across western Nevada. Still, forcing is strong Sunday night into Monday morning with a cold front and solid moisture transport along the atmospheric river (AR); this supports periods of significant spillover precipitation. Also of note are model simulations showing some instability with the strong frontal forcing. This brings the chance for an NCFR with heavy precipitation rates and even an outside chance for a thunderstorm. At this time, even with heavy precipitation most of the region should be able to absorb the water given dry soil conditions; therefore, concern for notable flooding is low at this time. A major exception will be on and downstream of burn areas where heavier rainfall rates (especially with an NCFR) could very well bring issues. Stay tuned!

As for snow levels, with the well-advertised, warmer AR they are currently expected to remain on the higher side until the system's cold front pushes through on Monday. With this in mind, snowfall impacts may be restricted to the highest Sierra passes above 8000 feet Sunday. Impacts from snowfall at major pass level (~7000 feet) and possibly even down to 5500-6000 feet become possible on Monday as the front pushes through.

* Disclaimer: In the past, we have seen great model agreement days out only to see significant changes as the event nears with the emergence of finer-scale details. This is especially true of atmospheric rivers as a shift of 50-100 miles in the core of the moisture feed (still quite possible) can affect precipitation amounts and higher elevation snowfall dramatically.

-Snyder

AVIATION.

Winds aloft and south-southwest surface winds will increase over the next 6-12 hours as low pressure moves into the Oregon Coast. Expect mountain wave turbulence into Wednesday. LLWS is likely 03-18z Wednesday as a cold front pushes into the northern Sierra leading to peak surface gusts of 30-40 kts and Sierra ridge level winds to 60-70 kts. At RNO, south winds are forecast tonight which is a known direction for LLWS issues.

Rain and snow probabilities are 30-40% for the Tahoe terminals and 10-20% for the western NV terminals late tonight and Wednesday with mountain obscurements in lowering cloud heights. Snow accumulations will be light and less than an inch for TVL and TRK. Higher probabilities >60% for rain are in the Sierra well north of KTRK into the Dixie Fire burn area.

A warm-moist onshore flow will maintain periods of light rainfall going in the northern Sierra Thursday into Friday. A much stronger Pacific system is possible Sunday-Monday with strong winds and heavy rain possible in the Sierra and western NV. Brong

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories. NV . Lake Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Wednesday for Lake Tahoe in NVZ002.

CA . Lake Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Wednesday for Lake Tahoe in CAZ072.



For more information from the National Weather Service visit . http://weather.gov/reno


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Truckee-Tahoe, CA12 mi45 minWSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy54°F32°F44%1015.6 hPa
Carson City Airport, NV12 mi40 minENE 7 G 1310.00 miFair61°F25°F25%1014.9 hPa
Reno, Reno Tahoe International Airport, NV20 mi35 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F28°F30%1012.3 hPa
South Lake Tahoe, Lake Tahoe Airport, CA24 mi37 minS 710.00 miFair54°F23°F30%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTRK

Wind History from TRK (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Sacramento, Sacramento River, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Sacramento #4, Sacramento River, California
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Sacramento #4
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Tue -- 02:32 AM PDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:17 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:54 AM PDT     2.49 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:19 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 02:37 PM PDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:16 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:21 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:19 PM PDT     2.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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